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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 21:16:10 GMT -6
It’s not a long duration but definitely more than three hours of snow [b I can’t change what the model shows... The 3k nam looks like trash |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 17, 2019 21:18:52 GMT -6
No way either of those guys sit. 91-90-10 57-21-17 7-18-20 49-70-12 Those would be my lines. Can't argue with that Actually, I'd keep Sunnqvist centering the 3rd line with Maroon and Steen and Barbie centering the 4th with Thomas and Sanford on the wings. Missed that earlier. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 21:19:21 GMT -6
Tyler bozak as your number 2 Center on a Stanley cup-winning team is pretty suspect.
I guess you can't trust Robert Thomas two man that roll in the playoffs from the defensive standpoint.
I guess if there's one thing Perron bozak and Schwartz are oh slow.
But Perron is a premiere possession player.
Schwartz is to a degree.
Bozak is ok.
Honestly if I were Berube.
I would start playing Thomas at center between Perron and Schwartz.
Or Steen and see either he could keep up.
Bozak can't create.
To win the cup they need atleast two full dynamic lines.
It's a shame that Schenn is a defensive liability ! BACKSIDE ! top line center.
This is probably their biggest weakness.
Unless #27 or #55 get hurt. Then it's over.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 21:22:43 GMT -6
It’s not a long duration but definitely more than three hours of snow [b I can’t change what the model shows... The 3k nam looks like trash The NAM has consistently shown a 4-5 hour snow window with 0.3-0.4" liquid. That's pretty solid for this set up. The hires Nam sucks for us so far. All of the other models agree with the Nam. We'll get more snow this one than the last one. |
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 17, 2019 21:23:12 GMT -6
Glen says 1”-2”. Ugh
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 17, 2019 21:26:22 GMT -6
It’s not a long duration but definitely more than three hours of snow [b I can’t change what the model shows... The 3k nam looks like trash Guess since it’s not what we want then we have no choice but to throw that one out. |
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 17, 2019 21:29:08 GMT -6
Tyler bozak as your number 2 Center on a Stanley cup-winning team is pretty suspect. I guess you can't trust Robert Thomas two man that roll in the playoffs from the defensive standpoint. I guess if there's one thing Perron bozak and Schwartz are oh slow. But Perron is a premiere possession player. Schwartz is to a degree. Bozak is ok. Honestly if I were Berube. I would start playing Thomas at center between Perron and Schwartz. Or Steen and see either he could keep up. Bozak can't create. To win the cup they need atleast two full dynamic lines. It's a shame that Schenn is a defensive liability ! BACKSIDE ! top line center. This is probably their biggest weakness. Unless #27 or #55 get hurt. Then it's over. Won 10 in a row... not many weaknesses at this point in time. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 21:29:26 GMT -6
[b I can’t change what the model shows... The 3k nam looks like trash Guess since it’s not what we want then we have no choice but to throw that one out. My favorite was a couple days ago: the nam came in real dry with the weekend storm and it was like’ “the nam sucks at 84 hours” Then the next storm appears and nam is amped, “Sometimes the nam really nails these” Lol |
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Post by GlendaleWxGuy on Feb 17, 2019 21:29:50 GMT -6
Tyler bozak as your number 2 Center on a Stanley cup-winning team is pretty suspect. I guess you can't trust Robert Thomas two man that roll in the playoffs from the defensive standpoint. I guess if there's one thing Perron bozak and Schwartz are oh slow. But Perron is a premiere possession player. Schwartz is to a degree. Bozak is ok. Honestly if I were Berube. I would start playing Thomas at center between Perron and Schwartz. Or Steen and see either he could keep up. Bozak can't create. To win the cup they need atleast two full dynamic lines. It's a shame that Schenn is a defensive liability ! BACKSIDE ! top line center. This is probably their biggest weakness. Unless #27 or #55 get hurt. Then it's over. I’d have no issues moving Thomas up to the second line center....I just don’t see Berube doing it. He’ll go with experienced player to play the more important minutes. Bozak’s probably playing too high as a number 2 Center, but Thomas will likely create matchup issues for other teams as the 3rd center. The team has a good problem and if things don’t work...he can easily move pieces around (see 91-90-10 line) to find something that does work. Going to be a fun spring on the ice. |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 17, 2019 21:29:56 GMT -6
Tyler bozak as your number 2 Center on a Stanley cup-winning team is pretty suspect. ... It's a shame that Schenn is a defensive liability ! BACKSIDE ! top line center. This is probably their biggest weakness. Unless #27 or #55 get hurt. Then it's over. Schenn is staying right where he is unless we go into a funk. No way I'm breaking up that top line. On this team, Bozak is the best option to center the 2nd line, unless you want to move Sundqvist up there. If we have a line with Schwartz and Steen on it, I hope you're not looking for pucks in the net.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 21:30:18 GMT -6
I just looked at the 3km it does look terrible, the 12k NAM is what I was looking at . Glens 1-2” is not a bad start. I definitely don’t see this as a 3-5” storm. I’ve said this since yesterday 1-3” with a little freezing rain should cover this storm
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 21:33:38 GMT -6
I am the opposite, I think the NAM has struggled lately. The last storm it did terrible.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 21:34:00 GMT -6
00z icon tracks the low just south of STL next weekend, so all rain
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 17, 2019 21:35:00 GMT -6
Guess since it’s not what we want then we have no choice but to throw that one out. My favorite was a couple days ago: the nam came in real dry with the weekend storm and it was like’ “the nam sucks at 84 hours” Then the next storm appears and nam is amped, “Sometimes the nam really nails these” Lol You've been apart of this blog as long as anyone, you should know that's how things are around here
We like to pick model runs that feed our weather addiction
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 17, 2019 21:38:42 GMT -6
00z icon tracks the low just south of STL next weekend, so all rain Need a better cold air connection with that system. It has some potential though
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 21:39:06 GMT -6
My favorite was a couple days ago: the nam came in real dry with the weekend storm and it was like’ “the nam sucks at 84 hours” Then the next storm appears and nam is amped, “Sometimes the nam really nails these” Lol You've been apart of this blog as long as anyone, you should know that's how things are around here
We like to pick model runs that feed our weather addiction
No doubt, I only am accepting the fv3 and it’s Chicago blizzard for next weekend lol. It’s just funny to see when the storms are in such close proximity |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 21:41:12 GMT -6
Tyler bozak as your number 2 Center on a Stanley cup-winning team is pretty suspect. I guess you can't trust Robert Thomas two man that roll in the playoffs from the defensive standpoint. I guess if there's one thing Perron bozak and Schwartz are oh slow. But Perron is a premiere possession player. Schwartz is to a degree. Bozak is ok. Honestly if I were Berube. I would start playing Thomas at center between Perron and Schwartz. Or Steen and see either he could keep up. Bozak can't create. To win the cup they need atleast two full dynamic lines. It's a shame that Schenn is a defensive liability ! BACKSIDE ! top line center. This is probably their biggest weakness. Unless #27 or #55 get hurt. Then it's over. Won 10 in a row... not many weaknesses at this point in time. Yeah but we're talking about what it takes to win 16 in April and May. I think they can do it. We'll learn a lot about this team in March. Or when key guys get hurt. They remind me of the 2004 Cardinals in a way. I think they will probably stay pretty dominating for the rest of the regular season because their possession stats started trending up 3 weeks before they started winning consistently. And we're dominate almost 2 weeks before Jan 3rd. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 21:41:41 GMT -6
There’s no cold air in sight for that storm. I’m not interested at all . That’s another Iowa storm.
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Post by stlweatherguy - Hillsboro, MO on Feb 17, 2019 21:42:46 GMT -6
At this point I think Steen and his "two way play" is overrated. If you are pressed for spots he would be my choice to sit. Won't happen with his salary, but he is not much of an offensive threat. His value is really just on the penalty kill. I worry about Perron and his history with concussions. I think this is what he is dealing with. Hope he gets better soon.
Either way lots of depth and they look pretty much unbeatable rigth now.
Steen stats
GP- 42
G- 6
A- 12
PTS-18
+/- -1
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 17, 2019 21:49:14 GMT -6
Won 10 in a row... not many weaknesses at this point in time. Yeah but we're talking about what it takes to win 16 in April and May. I think they can do it. We'll learn a lot about this team in March. Or when key guys get hurt. They remind me of the 2004 Cardinals in a way. I think they will probably stay pretty dominating for the rest of the regular season because their possession stats started trending up 3 weeks before they started winning consistently. And we're dominate almost 2 weeks before Jan 3rd. Don’t follow hockey but I think I would have heard if the Blues had three MVP candidates (Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen). That team was sick and won 105 games |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 21:57:10 GMT -6
One thing to notice it seems like every model from global to hi resolution shows less qpf right up I44 they show .5” to our south east and .5” to our north west, with the metro in the ..25-.30” range .
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 17, 2019 21:59:48 GMT -6
My favorite was a couple days ago: the nam came in real dry with the weekend storm and it was like’ “the nam sucks at 84 hours” Then the next storm appears and nam is amped, “Sometimes the nam really nails these” Lol You've been apart of this blog as long as anyone, you should know that's how things are around here
We like to pick model runs that feed our weather addiction
I just think people are forgetting the bias’ with the NAM. Notably like the last system since at the 00z/6z runs the night before began to place the moisture a bit further north but no one bought on banking on too much dry air and seemingly not taking into account it doesn’t have a northern bias as often for modified lows low type systems and certain amped clippers. I remained consistent with thinking more moisture would be in the northern parts and i verified that. Conversely we now have a southern low which is quite the opposite. I’m liking 3-5” because I do not think it will be as far northwest where it does as with the main precip band and tend to think the moisture will come in more pronounced to the east and southeast near the 44 corridor by 12z tomorrow...might be the 18z where we see it trend that way from my thinking but the other fact is that the NAM also over estimates the wind shear/vorticy with almost all system. Therefore, this would also support a somewhat weaker system and also a further placement along that path as well. The NAM has bias’ and honestly...not because it’s not in our favor but because in my opinion the 3km has always sucked. I don’t even look at it 90% of the time. The ICON is always to far north but a good model. The GEM is also always north and amped on QPF. Right now a good middle of the road approach in my opinion would be a 40/30/30 Euro/12km NAM/GFS which fully supports totals in the 2-4/3-5” range depending on your location. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 17, 2019 22:07:51 GMT -6
Addicted I do think the models are a little under done, with this set up I would expect more. Maybe I’m just wish casting but I would think they should be closer to the .5” range. Hopefully your right and we see them trend that way tomorrow
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 17, 2019 22:28:47 GMT -6
Addicted I do think the models are a little under done, with this set up I would expect more. Maybe I’m just wish casting but I would think they should be closer to the .5” range. Hopefully your right and we see them trend that way tomorrow We shall see and hope. A good middle of the road approach in my opinion would be .20” qpf on the low end and .40” on the high end for metro west and southwest unless it shifts further south by a good 75+ miles because we are not in a good area for it to pivot backen moisture which is why we don’t have a high ceiling as Coz mentioned...this is a front loaded system for us and therefore we also will have to deal with the dry slot on the backend but after the temperatures rise and change to mostly rain as currently modeled. Tomorrow’s runs are critical. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 17, 2019 22:49:07 GMT -6
The GFS has 2-3". The FV3 3-4", gem has 3".
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 17, 2019 22:57:38 GMT -6
The GFS has 2-3". The FV3 3-4", gem has 3". If only we can get this to come in a little weaker to just even slow it down some that would put us right where we need to be and expand that start of a band up 44. All systems have been faster this year so at some point we gotta get one a little later. I’d like to see a midnight start time. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 17, 2019 23:18:24 GMT -6
So tonight’s upcoming snow total summary with comparison of the last storm taking into account known bias’:
NAM 3KM: 0-1” (performed bad with last storm with placement all over until about 24 hrs before the storm)
ICON 0-1” (out to lunch with last storm...probably did too many shrooms)
GFS 2-3” (Did decent but missed the north precip)
NAM 3-4” (My opinion did the best and placed the north cutoff well)
EURO 3-4” (Also did well)
FV3 3-5” (Did pretty well..missed north precip)
GEM 3-4” (Absolutely terrible with last storm)
So all the big guns that performed the best last time are all in line with each other in a similar flavor again with around 3”.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 0:14:36 GMT -6
Euro drops .4” QPF up 44
It’s showing 2” of snow and 0.3” to 0.4” of freezing rain in the metro
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 18, 2019 0:16:57 GMT -6
Ok...now hold on. The euro does have .4 or so qpf. It show .4 freezing rain. And 2-3 inches of snow. Something doesn't quite add up.. Maybe I'm just dumb
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 0:20:33 GMT -6
I’m questioning it’s freezing rain products.
I think it’s overestimating the freezing rain accumulation
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