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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 18, 2019 19:26:20 GMT -6
I've been shafted in pretty much every direction this year...I don't know how to handle it because I'm usually digging out while everyone else is kicking rocks, lol. You grin and bear it like I did dozens of times  . |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 18, 2019 19:30:26 GMT -6
Honestly everyone shouldbe happy. We all had at orabove average
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 19:46:47 GMT -6
The 0z HRRR is about as bad as it gets it shows about.05” qpf for the entire metro area. It has a huge dry slot
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 19:47:29 GMT -6
The 0z HRRR is about as bad as it gets it shows about.05” qpf for the entire metro area. It has a huge dry slot That's scary. |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 19:47:35 GMT -6
Now we wait for the NAM, hopefully it looks good
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 19:49:56 GMT -6
After studying it , it looks like it gets a lot of convection going that angles off to the east .
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 19:52:05 GMT -6
The 0z HRRR is about as bad as it gets it shows about.05” qpf for the entire metro area. It has a huge dry slot Lock it in! |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 18, 2019 19:54:11 GMT -6
I would not worry bout it hrr has been horrible lately
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 19:55:57 GMT -6
After studying it , it looks like it gets a lot of convection going that angles off to the east . That's what I figured. But sadly it could easily be correct. But that is a known bias. It's probably what the 3km Nam is doing |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 19:59:19 GMT -6
I like what I see so far on the NAM.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 20:00:14 GMT -6
After studying it , it looks like it gets a lot of convection going that angles off to the east . That's what I figured. But sadly it could easily be correct. But that is a known bias. It's probably what the 3km Nam is doing Agreed. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 20:01:09 GMT -6
Long long term...and I really mean long term....and I think BRTN alluded to this a while back....I think we are coming out of our snow drought...Here's another term that we've not used before...global cooling. I don't intend to mix climate and weather, but I think we are seeing a return to more classic winters that we've seen in the past, with more chances for winterstorms, spawned by wintertime mid-latitude cyclones. Yes there will probably be some mild, relatively snowless winters...but instead of having an above average winter once every 4 to 5 years, I think we will work toward a climatological pattern of seeing more half and half. We should get accustomed to more frequent snowfalls and event cancellations that occur in minor events now, will raise the bar a bit. I previously said this winter and next winter will be above average in snow, and so as long as next winter is enso neutral there's nothing happening now that can change my thinking, but the takeaway in my message, is that having a 2 to 6 inch snowfall winter is awfully unlikely for several years. I would like to see NAO be inclined to go negative (something we just are not seeing even this year). There have been other patterns that have helped us salvage winter (ie negative epo, strato warming). I'm really not too amped about strato warming any more...they are good for publicity, but every year, they are a big letdown, IMO. I know the solar cycle has been dispelled to some degree on here as far as impact to individual winters, but by the same token, averaged out globally, and over time, I think there is some degree of cooling that will become more evident as we go in time, and that includes a return to colder, snowier winters than what we've seen here locally. This will intensify the global climate change debate because of the lack of understanding of climate. But weather-wise, I think this winter is a taste of more to come.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 20:06:28 GMT -6
What did the 21z sref show for qpf?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 20:07:42 GMT -6
NAM looks solid
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 18, 2019 20:07:48 GMT -6
Long long term...and I really mean long term....and I think BRTN alluded to this a while back....I think we are coming out of our snow drought...Here's another term that we've not used before...global cooling. I don't intend to mix climate and weather, but I think we are seeing a return to more classic winters that we've seen in the past, with more chances for winterstorms, spawned by wintertime mid-latitude cyclones. Yes there will probably be some mild, relatively snowless winters...but instead of having an above average winter once every 4 to 5 years, I think we will work toward a climatological pattern of seeing more half and half. We should get accustomed to more frequent snowfalls and event cancellations that occur in minor events now, will raise the bar a bit. I previously said this winter and next winter will be above average in snow, and so as long as next winter is enso neutral there's nothing happening now that can change my thinking, but the takeaway in my message, is that having a 2 to 6 inch snowfall winter is awfully unlikely for several years. I would like to see NAO be inclined to go negative (something we just are not seeing even this year). There have been other patterns that have helped us salvage winter (ie negative epo, strato warming). I'm really not too amped about strato warming any more...they are good for publicity, but every year, they are a big letdown, IMO. I know the solar cycle has been dispelled to some degree on here as far as impact to individual winters, but by the same token, averaged out globally, and over time, I think there is some degree of cooling that will become more evident as we go in time, and that includes a return to colder, snowier winters than what we've seen here locally. This will intensify the global climate change debate because of the lack of understanding of climate. But weather-wise, I think this winter is a taste of more to come. Don't insult the PV... -24 degrees and a WC of -55 lol Those things produce, but there are different kinds and varied effects |
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 20:09:35 GMT -6
NAM looks great
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 20:16:50 GMT -6
What did the 21z sref show for qpf? It came back down to earth but it still has .58 as the mean |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 20:17:48 GMT -6
Long long term...and I really mean long term....and I think BRTN alluded to this a while back....I think we are coming out of our snow drought...Here's another term that we've not used before...global cooling. I don't intend to mix climate and weather, but I think we are seeing a return to more classic winters that we've seen in the past, with more chances for winterstorms, spawned by wintertime mid-latitude cyclones. Yes there will probably be some mild, relatively snowless winters...but instead of having an above average winter once every 4 to 5 years, I think we will work toward a climatological pattern of seeing more half and half. We should get accustomed to more frequent snowfalls and event cancellations that occur in minor events now, will raise the bar a bit. I previously said this winter and next winter will be above average in snow, and so as long as next winter is enso neutral there's nothing happening now that can change my thinking, but the takeaway in my message, is that having a 2 to 6 inch snowfall winter is awfully unlikely for several years. I would like to see NAO be inclined to go negative (something we just are not seeing even this year). There have been other patterns that have helped us salvage winter (ie negative epo, strato warming). I'm really not too amped about strato warming any more...they are good for publicity, but every year, they are a big letdown, IMO. I know the solar cycle has been dispelled to some degree on here as far as impact to individual winters, but by the same token, averaged out globally, and over time, I think there is some degree of cooling that will become more evident as we go in time, and that includes a return to colder, snowier winters than what we've seen here locally. This will intensify the global climate change debate because of the lack of understanding of climate. But weather-wise, I think this winter is a taste of more to come. Don't insult the PV... -24 degrees and a WC of -55 lol Those things produce, but there are different kinds and varied effects lol -6 here. A week of cold. We can do better than that. LOL Agreed with the varied effects....it made this winter remarkable, no doubt. But so can a displaced Jetstream from a negative NAO. I don't know about you, but the cold wave did not meet my expectations - I was pretty public about my expectations. fwiw, I am actually glad to see cold and snow out west.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 20:19:27 GMT -6
There's no doubt that a major and sudden stratospheric warming event can produce some extreme winter weather across N. America and Eurasia...but they also don't always disrupt the troposheric vortex consistently, either. They seem like more of a sure bet for arctic outbreaks than snowstorms, IME. You don't often see the vortex swipe Chicago...especially one as strong and deep as what we saw in January.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 18, 2019 20:20:17 GMT -6
So when does the drought and torch arrive? I'm ready for dry weather.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 20:22:51 GMT -6
The upper level lift and support for tomorrow’s event is strong. Like BRTN mentioned, I could see it snowing gangbusters for a few hours
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 18, 2019 20:26:30 GMT -6
Lack of snowcover is what made the difference between significant cold and historic cold for us. It was still noteworthy here with a high in the single digits with virtually no snowcover...but we didn't break into the double digit negative lows, either. The wind chills were still pretty extreme though. I expected it to be a bit colder myself...the -30*C h85 isotherm doesn't come around too often.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 20:34:32 GMT -6
The 3KM Nam still sucks.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Feb 18, 2019 20:36:20 GMT -6
So when does the drought and torch arrive? I'm ready for dry weather. Same here! Our house is almost done in St Clair and the rivers been rubbing high all winter it seems. Do not want to deal with extreme flooding again this year. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 20:37:54 GMT -6
When’s the last time you seen it so well? I’m not sure I’ve seen it get a reasonable track right outside 24hrs all year. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 20:47:14 GMT -6
Lack of snowcover is what made the difference between significant cold and historic cold for us. It was still noteworthy here with a high in the single digits with virtually no snowcover...but we didn't break into the double digit negative lows, either. The wind chills were still pretty extreme though. I expected it to be a bit colder myself...the -30*C h85 isotherm doesn't come around too often. agree with that...another expectation was that with the slow onset of the impact, I expected it to last longer, especially since it came in January. Keep in mind...I'm in no way disrespecting the pv as wsc suggests....it had an impact. It brought us an arctic blast. People will remember it, but overall, the impact here in St. Louis (not Chicago), was lower than what I expected. I'm not as amped up about future stratospheric warming events in general, until I see how they affect us. Most SW events that I'm aware of, did not lock us in to a prolonged cold, that I envisioned given the high level of publicity. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Feb 18, 2019 20:53:57 GMT -6
I recall snow last Easter from one.
You can say they are sensationalized, but Dr. Cohen sure provides incredible analysis about them. One of many mechanisms to consider.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 21:03:19 GMT -6
The Rgem is solid.
3-4" SE of STL.
2-3" NW.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 21:06:02 GMT -6
I recall snow last Easter from one. You can say they are sensationalized, but Dr. Cohen sure provides incredible analysis about them. One of many mechanisms to consider. and therein lies the point I'm trying to make. I erred in judgement by thinking it could harbor a deep winter pattern; and that did not happen. We need several factors working together to lock us into a more prolonged cold. Antecedent snowcover helps. A more favorable teleconnection helps. Otherwise, we get a short duration of intense cold dry weather. Personally I'll take 29 and 6 inches of snow over 0 with no snowcover. I do think it was remarkable how cold we got with no snowcover. As I stated, I'm not dissing it at all. It was instrumental in salvaging this winter. I don't know the January statistics, but without explicit mention of the pv, the statistics likely won't tell this winter's story in the future. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 21:39:39 GMT -6
The gfs is really warm.
It's all rain for all of us.
Which is essentially super dry
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. 
