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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 21:41:31 GMT -6
Yes I’m not excited about the models tonight. Definitely not what I was hoping to see. Most are drier than earlier runs.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 21:47:48 GMT -6
FV3 still looks fine
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 21:48:16 GMT -6
Yes I’m not excited about the models tonight. Definitely not what I was hoping to see. Most are drier than earlier runs. Yeah the gfs is crazy bad. The HRRR is crazy bad. The hires Nam is bad. The Nam and then are solid. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 21:51:24 GMT -6
The HRRR is still wayyyy outside of its range
It does best less than 12 hours from a system
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Feb 18, 2019 21:51:47 GMT -6
Yes I’m not excited about the models tonight. Definitely not what I was hoping to see. Most are drier than earlier runs. Yeah the gfs is crazy bad. The HRRR is crazy bad. The hires Nam is bad. The Nam and then are solid. So what ur saying is, this storm should be crazy good? |
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Post by mmarkillie82 on Feb 18, 2019 21:54:14 GMT -6
What number are we to now? What step?
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 21:55:09 GMT -6
Hopefully that dry slot stays West of me.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 21:58:26 GMT -6
00z FV3  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 22:05:16 GMT -6
The GFS says this is rain....looks more like a heavy wet snow to me  |
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 18, 2019 22:10:02 GMT -6
Looks like 2 to 5 for the area. Quit your griping lol. Good night yall.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 22:10:07 GMT -6
One thing for sure there is very little agreement between the models as to where the heavier precipitation sets u . Some say south east some say north west some say south west. We may not know until tomorrow afternoon sometime.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 18, 2019 22:11:05 GMT -6
1-3” covers best case and worst case, definitely not 2-5”
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Feb 18, 2019 22:11:52 GMT -6
that's close to what I'm thinking...a brief onset of snow, but a quick changeover to freezing rain (surface temps at 31), around 8, then rain by midnight. I do think we may be able to eek out 1 to 2 inches of snow at the onset, and I feel like I'm being bullish on that....whatever the case is, we may not see that much snow on the ground in the morning when we wake up.
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Post by ajd446 on Feb 18, 2019 22:12:17 GMT -6
Well I am going with 5 inches for Lambert let's see what happens lol
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 18, 2019 22:13:08 GMT -6
The 03Z rap is still really nice.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 18, 2019 22:18:20 GMT -6
BTW, im pretty certain those weathernerds snow maps include sleet and freezing rain into their calculations
That 10" forecast for SW Mo seemed slightly to high
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 18, 2019 22:28:20 GMT -6
One thing for sure there is very little agreement between the models as to where the heavier precipitation sets u . Some say south east some say north west some say south west. We may not know until tomorrow afternoon sometime. I’m guessing the higher totals will be with the fgen band from the immediate metro and points S and E. I could see some 4”+ numbers in the max band. To me the mid level fgen will be the driving force. |
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Post by amstilost on Feb 18, 2019 22:40:55 GMT -6
Looked liked Glenn's map had zip/zilch/practically nothing for Jeffco, unless the graphics were hiding it somehow. Looked horrible to me in southern Jeffco.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 18, 2019 22:42:15 GMT -6
RAP would be close to +TSSN at first glance.
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Post by cardsnweather on Feb 18, 2019 22:45:06 GMT -6
 This would be cats and dogs falling from the sky. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 22:58:27 GMT -6
I’m actually finding this storm fun to forecast given that we are less than 24hrs before the event and are in 2 different camps for the heaviest band...northwest or southeast...either way I’m enjoying the challenge of who’s gunna win this one. Oddly...as I’ve had enough this year I’m actually having fun trying to pin down the dry slot given models have shown that all over the place. Either way this is a different breed and I’m going with a blend of the rap and a less juiced 12 km NAM solution for the banding.
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Feb 18, 2019 23:07:47 GMT -6
I agree. I think this storm has potential to exceed our expectations. It won’t last but when it comes it should be fun.
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 19, 2019 0:06:03 GMT -6
The euro is hilarious. It has just dwindled the snow more and more over the last 2 days or so.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 19, 2019 0:20:09 GMT -6
The euro is hilarious. It has just dwindled the snow more and more over the last 2 days or so. What's it down to now? |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 19, 2019 0:26:50 GMT -6
The rap keeps pounding SWIL while dry slotting the MO side the further West you go.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 19, 2019 0:28:02 GMT -6
The euro is hilarious. It has just dwindled the snow more and more over the last 2 days or so. What's it down to now? .20-.25” QPF frozen ~2-3” |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 19, 2019 0:31:48 GMT -6
EURO still looks like it’s got some 4” lollipops especially down near Farmington. It’s lower totals but more in line with something you’d expect with such a fast moving system with no backend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 19, 2019 0:38:04 GMT -6
Which site do you get the euro data from addicted2wx?
I only ask because the snow maps on WxBell look very different than your describing
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 19, 2019 0:41:52 GMT -6
The euro has 2 inches most areas. Maybe a 3 inch speck down south. You'd have to be praying pretty hard to find a 4 inch area anywhere except nw MO. Less than 2 nw of a line from New Haven to st chrles
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Feb 19, 2019 0:49:56 GMT -6
Which site do you get the euro data from addicted2wx? I only ask because the snow maps on WxBell look very different than your describing Been using weather.us since beginning this month. I need to get wxb back apparently because something is off. But I’m not sure why it would be so different with the same QPF map. Right now verbatim those maps show 6-11pm accumulating snow. Current Snow depth is 1” so minus one inch. QPF is .20 - .28” along 44 southeast to Farmington. With surface temps approaching above/near freezing mark at Farmington around this time. How is yours so much different? weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019021900/missouri/acc-total-precipitation/20190220-0500z.html |
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