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Post by Snowman99 on May 28, 2019 19:22:57 GMT -6
2 tornadoes now near exelsior springs
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Post by ElburnDave on May 28, 2019 19:42:22 GMT -6
I can’t recall such a large area under FF warnings before. That’s incredible!
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on May 28, 2019 19:45:51 GMT -6
I can’t recall such a large area under FF warnings before. That’s incredible! Last time the Meremac record flooding occurred |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 28, 2019 19:47:17 GMT -6
Friend in KC reports KCI Airport closed because of debris on the runway carried by the tornado
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Post by ajd446 on May 28, 2019 19:56:06 GMT -6
I would not rule out tonight monster rains in northern mo pushing the Missouri and Mississippi above 93 thresh hold.
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Post by ComoEsJn on May 28, 2019 20:00:27 GMT -6
I would not rule out tonight monster rains in northern mo pushing the Missouri and Mississippi above 93 thresh hold.[/qouote] just to be clear, you believe that one night of rain tonight in northern MO will push the Mississippi crest up an additional 4.5 feet? |
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Post by ajd446 on May 28, 2019 20:03:16 GMT -6
Not sure but I know these rivers are very touchy
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Post by Snowman99 on May 28, 2019 20:12:42 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on May 28, 2019 20:14:46 GMT -6
From a disco update at 847pm
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019
Updated the forecast this evening to increase precipitation
chances and rainfall amounts across northeast MO and western
Illinois. The latest observational data shows that the effective
outflow boundary has pushed southward to south of Quincy and
Mount Sterling. This boundary is now showing up as a fine line on
radar and this radar imagery continues to suggest it is pushing
to the south. Storm motions continue to be across this boundary,
which suggests all storms that are developing are currently
elevated above a stable boundary layer. As the 850mb & 925mb low-
level jet continues to increase moisture convergence into this
effective boundary, expect storms to persist and train over the
same areas. Therefore, we are becoming increasingly concerned of a
flash flood threat across northeast MO and western IL where it
looks like these thunderstorms will train over the same areas.
Have increased QPF in this region.
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 28, 2019 20:22:32 GMT -6
Tonight's rain alone obviously won't push the MS to record levels, but it will boost it significantly. Way more than forecast/modeled once again like I mentioned this morning.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 28, 2019 20:28:54 GMT -6
Maaaaan, Northern Mo, Nebraska, Kansas and Illinois have been getting pounded by heavy rain day after day!!!!!
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jeeper
Wishcaster
Rosewood Heights, IL
Posts: 183 
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Post by jeeper on May 28, 2019 20:31:06 GMT -6
Lawrence Kansas tornado was five minutes from my daughter (who attends KU)apartment. Safe but "shaken". Quite the night indeed... No pictures...staying safely in her apartment for the night!
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Post by bdgwx on May 28, 2019 20:35:31 GMT -6
The Illinois river is forecasted to crest near record level at Valley City. The gauge closest to the confluence is forecasted to be 2nd highest behind 1993.
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Post by mchafin on May 28, 2019 21:27:41 GMT -6
Lawrence Kansas tornado was five minutes from my daughter (who attends KU)apartment. Safe but "shaken". Quite the night indeed... No pictures...staying safely in her apartment for the night! I’m glad she’s ok |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 28, 2019 22:29:08 GMT -6
Outflow just blew in...giddy up.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 29, 2019 0:02:29 GMT -6
Outflow just blew in...giddy up. Was watching it on the Radarscope loop. It is interesting watching the echoes developing immediately on the north side of the outflow |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on May 29, 2019 4:35:41 GMT -6
Enhanced risk for the entire area today.
From the DISCO:
"Both of these ongoing convective areas will influence severe weather
risk. With the mid Mississippi Valley convection, questions exist
regarding details of the airmass recovery across parts of the
Missouri/Illinois vicinity. With the Texas storms, speed/location
of the storms through mid morning will define the western fringe of
the higher severe risk expected to evolve by afternoon."
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Post by jmg378s on May 29, 2019 5:22:10 GMT -6
Huh, a hatched enhanced outlook for the metro area...rare these days...
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Post by Tilawn on May 29, 2019 6:03:14 GMT -6
Was really hoping the rain would be gone by daybreak this morning......already a day behind due to holiday don’t need any more delays
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 29, 2019 6:36:30 GMT -6
I have to say... I think the Enhanced is WAY overdone in Missouri. So much so...that I dropped it off the graphic. Today looks and feels like a good "Slight" day....wind fields, shear are MUCH weaker today.... But if the atmosphere can recharge...CAPES will increase significantly...along with steep lapse rates...winds and hail seem possible...if we can get anything to organize.
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jeeper
Wishcaster
Rosewood Heights, IL
Posts: 183
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Post by jeeper on May 29, 2019 6:38:20 GMT -6
Chatted late last night with my daughter...said "All she could see was a big dark cloud deck (interpreting her comments) and what looked like a wide dark "shaft" cloud that was on the ground", after that they "put the cats in their cages and beat feet" to the closet under the stairwell and covered up with blankets..." She also said that "at least all their cell phones were charged". Apparently, one of her room mates was really freaked out, because she was driving home to Columbia, MO and was right behind the big Jeff City tornado storm! Basically I said to both of them "Yeah, well you live in Kansas, they're kind of known for Tornados"
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 29, 2019 7:03:35 GMT -6
I have to say... I think the Enhanced is WAY overdone in Missouri. So much so...that I dropped it off the graphic. Today looks and feels like a good "Slight" day....wind fields, shear are MUCH weaker today.... But if the atmosphere can recharge...CAPES will increase significantly...along with steep lapse rates...winds and hail seem possible...if we can get anything to organize. SPC holding their ground with the a.m. update www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 29, 2019 7:13:49 GMT -6
I have to say... I think the Enhanced is WAY overdone in Missouri. So much so...that I dropped it off the graphic. Today looks and feels like a good "Slight" day....wind fields, shear are MUCH weaker today.... But if the atmosphere can recharge...CAPES will increase significantly...along with steep lapse rates...winds and hail seem possible...if we can get anything to organize. SPC holding their ground with the a.m. update www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.htmlLet the standoff begin! |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 29, 2019 7:22:36 GMT -6
630 AM - Heavy thunderstorm
830 AM - I'm breaking out in to blue sky. Time to recharge the atmosphere...again. <sigh>
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Post by ComoEsJn on May 29, 2019 7:25:26 GMT -6
what time this evening are we thinking for the immediate metro? I have a couple of viewings scheduled at my house, wondering if their agent is going to cancel them if there's severe weather in the area (they're at 6 and 6:45pm). Are we thinking later into the night?
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 29, 2019 7:28:11 GMT -6
Funny you asked.... I just finished that graphic...  |
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Post by ComoEsJn on May 29, 2019 7:33:03 GMT -6
yeah, no bueno for me.
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Post by mchafin on May 29, 2019 7:50:49 GMT -6
Question - did they modify something on the Meramec since the 2015 flood? With an expected crest of 45.2 on the Mississippi, I'd expect a higher crest than 41.2 on the Meramec at Arnold and 23.1 on the Meramec at Valley Park.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 29, 2019 7:55:34 GMT -6
I have to say... I think the Enhanced is WAY overdone in Missouri. So much so...that I dropped it off the graphic. Today looks and feels like a good "Slight" day....wind fields, shear are MUCH weaker today.... But if the atmosphere can recharge...CAPES will increase significantly...along with steep lapse rates...winds and hail seem possible...if we can get anything to organize. Enhanced outlook always seems to be the kiss of death for organized/widespread severe weather...guess we'll see. Thinking a loose cluster of storms will develop down near SGF later this afternoon and move NE into the area this evening...cold pooling will enhance the wind threat. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 29, 2019 7:57:49 GMT -6
Question - did they modify something on the Meramec since the 2015 flood? With an expected crest of 45.2 on the Mississippi, I'd expect a higher crest than 41.2 on the Meramec at Arnold and 23.1 on the Meramec at Valley Park. Difference is backup flood vs inflow from upstream. |
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