|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 29, 2019 8:13:40 GMT -6
I have to say... I think the Enhanced is WAY overdone in Missouri. So much so...that I dropped it off the graphic. Today looks and feels like a good "Slight" day....wind fields, shear are MUCH weaker today.... But if the atmosphere can recharge...CAPES will increase significantly...along with steep lapse rates...winds and hail seem possible...if we can get anything to organize. Enhanced outlook always seems to be the kiss of death for organized/widespread severe weather...guess we'll see. Thinking a loose cluster of storms will develop down near SGF later this afternoon and move NE into the area this evening...cold pooling will enhance the wind threat. The latest HRRR has many individual cells blowing up over the Ozarks later this afternoon and moving into the area. Not sure about wind fields supporting rotation but I could see there being some hailers. Sun is out in full now. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on May 29, 2019 8:31:26 GMT -6
There were virtually no UH tracks with those cells on the HRRR this afternoon when I checked.
|
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on May 29, 2019 8:52:34 GMT -6
Question - did they modify something on the Meramec since the 2015 flood? With an expected crest of 45.2 on the Mississippi, I'd expect a higher crest than 41.2 on the Meramec at Arnold and 23.1 on the Meramec at Valley Park. Difference is backup flood vs inflow from upstream. So if I understand correctly -- in 2015, it was a combo of flow from upstream + backup from Mississippi, whereas this time around we have just eht backup? |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 29, 2019 8:54:21 GMT -6
Difference is backup flood vs inflow from upstream. So if I understand correctly -- in 2015, it was a combo of flow from upstream + backup from Mississippi, whereas this time around we have just eht backup? 2015 was a flash flood event on steroids...much different scenario than a major stem flooding event like we're currently seeing. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on May 29, 2019 9:06:42 GMT -6
Storms looking like they want to start bowing out heading into high CAPE.
Will be interesting how they maintain themselves the next couple hours. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on May 29, 2019 9:11:38 GMT -6
Models show some big CAPE here later this afternoon- not so concerned about a tornado threat... but wind and big hail certainly look possible.
|
|
|
|
Post by rb1108 on May 29, 2019 9:12:22 GMT -6
Severe Thunderstorm Watch to the south of the area now. Any chance it will be expanded into the area?
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on May 29, 2019 9:20:29 GMT -6
Models show some big CAPE here later this afternoon- not so concerned about a tornado threat... but wind and big hail certainly look possible. Significantly large hail was highlighted as a threat with a hatched area encompassing much of the area with damaging winds taking a higher percentage threat but no hatched area. Tornado threat has always been marginal for the past 2 outlooks with the best threat well south of the area. Could see some baseballs flying later today and not the kind the cardinals pitch. |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on May 29, 2019 9:22:22 GMT -6
pocket of virtual clear skies is over the entire area which is likely the reason for rapidly increasing CAPEs and instability/Lapse Rates.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 29, 2019 9:37:07 GMT -6
Yeah HRRR and 3kNAM showing weak UH tracks but that's not too surprising given the absolutely pathetic forecasted effective helicity. Aggravating ingredients are potential for 3000+ j/kg SB/ML CAPE, high downdraft CAPE of 1000-1250 j/kg and maybe even 30-40 kts of bulk shear. So wind and hail should be a threat. Not sure I buy into the significant hail part of the outlook though without more support for rotating updrafts and some uncertainty on how robust the mid-level lapse rate plume will be when it arrives.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 29, 2019 9:37:10 GMT -6
Yeah, today seems like it's setting up to be pretty active across the Bi-state for sure...rapid destabilization underway.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 29, 2019 9:40:19 GMT -6
Yeah HRRR and 3kNAM showing very weak UH tracks but that's not too surprising given the absolutely pathetic forecasted effective helicity. Potentially aggravating ingredients are potential for 3000+ j/kg SB/ML CAPE, high downdraft CAPE of 1000-1250 j/kg and maybe even 30-40 kts of bulk shear. So wind should be a threat. Not sure I buy into the significant hail part of the outlook without more support for rotating updrafts and some uncertainty on how robust the mid-level lapse rate plume will be when it arrives, but hail still appears to be a threat too. Yeah the significant(2"+)hail threat should be limited to more discrete cells...thinking a bow echo or two is going to be the primary mode this afternoon and evening like Coz said. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on May 29, 2019 9:46:51 GMT -6
My concerns are the low wet bulb and big CAPE thru the hail zone.  Mid level lapse rates near 7* are not extreme... but sufficient |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on May 29, 2019 10:45:24 GMT -6
enhanced risk remains for most of the area. 30% hatched for hail
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 29, 2019 10:46:13 GMT -6
Yeah that is a nasty hail sounding...lots of DCAPE too with the dry mid-levels.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on May 29, 2019 11:23:13 GMT -6
According to SPC mesoanalysis SBCAPE is nearly up to 4000j/kg and DCAPE nearly up to 1100j/kg. That didn't take long.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 29, 2019 11:24:32 GMT -6
New MS River forecast at STL is a 46' crest Tuesday. Hopefully that's the last big jump we see...looks like things will dry out upstream for a few days.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 29, 2019 11:38:25 GMT -6
New MS River forecast at STL is a 46' crest Tuesday. Hopefully that's the last big jump we see...looks like things will dry out upstream for a few days. That would be welcome. Though next week sounds like it has the potential to get wet again. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 29, 2019 11:39:57 GMT -6
I'm clouding up...some. I like to believe that would slow the destabilization. But I think the sun this morning already turned the heat up enough. When I'm looking at 87 degrees with 87% humidity
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 29, 2019 11:56:25 GMT -6
I'm clouding up...some. I like to believe that would slow the destabilization. But I think the sun this morning already turned the heat up enough. When I'm looking at 87 degrees with 87% humidity Locked and loaded... |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on May 29, 2019 12:09:11 GMT -6
Locked and loaded... yes. But the best convergence is clearly over southeast MO. Might be tough to find a trigger or focus up this way. Not saying it will not happen... but I would bet more towards FAM to Salem IL line...and south..at this stage of the game. imgur.com/a/GDNKAdj.png |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 29, 2019 12:36:03 GMT -6
Yea I'm thinking the worst may stay south of me even. We'll see if it surges north over the next couple hours.
|
|
|
|
Post by ComoEsJn on May 29, 2019 12:39:27 GMT -6
you guys are making me go from "no bueno" to "possibly muy bueno"
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on May 29, 2019 12:49:01 GMT -6
If we do remain high and dry I imagine too many won't be too disappointed. Models seem to have both extremes covered with some not giving us a drop while other pound us hard.
|
|
|
|
Post by jeepers on May 29, 2019 12:54:46 GMT -6
you guys are making me go from "no bueno" to "possibly muy bueno" Yup, same here. I’m up to my earlobes. Don’t need hail damage right now. Let it rock and roll somewhere else if it’s planning on lobbing rocks. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 29, 2019 13:14:12 GMT -6
Latest HRRR is quite meh for the area.
|
|
|
|
Post by ComoEsJn on May 29, 2019 13:18:46 GMT -6
Latest HRRR is quite meh for the area. details? I'm looking for "as dry as humanly possible", and yes I'm being picky  |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on May 29, 2019 13:26:28 GMT -6
Hell of a hook on the cell south of Allentown, PA.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 29, 2019 13:38:51 GMT -6
Locked and loaded... yes. But the best convergence is clearly over southeast MO. Might be tough to find a trigger or focus up this way. Not saying it will not happen... but I would bet more towards FAM to Salem IL line...and south..at this stage of the game. imgur.com/a/GDNKAdj.pngIt'll be interesting to see what happens...so far the deep convection is definitely hanging tough S of 44. Thinking the disturbance lifting out of OK is going to increase lift and coverage into late afternoon and early evening...but I could be wrong. Debris cloudiness is starting to decrease instability a bit downstream so that muddles things too. |
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on May 29, 2019 13:46:21 GMT -6
Skies around these parts don’t look stable to me. They have that look of the “well. Something’s cooking”.
|
|
