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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 29, 2019 22:16:19 GMT -6
These high CAPE, low shear days are always tough to forecast. Hard to get any organized severe weather with with virtually no low level shear I was thinking the cold pooling would get things going but the organized bowing segments stayed well to the south and they still weren't too impressive. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on May 30, 2019 8:57:26 GMT -6
We are at a junction with the pattern going forward...will it dry out, or will the NW flow produce periods of showers and storms?
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Post by yypc on May 30, 2019 9:49:42 GMT -6
Chicago already broke the record for wettest May in 142 years with 8.22” so far
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Post by ElburnDave on May 30, 2019 10:41:43 GMT -6
Chicago already broke the record for wettest May in 142 years with 8.22” so far Yep. Breaks the record that dates all the way back to last May. |
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Post by unclesam6 on May 30, 2019 10:49:02 GMT -6
perhaps I'm off my rocker but the tail-end of the NAM nest looks EERILY similar to July 19, 2006.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on May 30, 2019 11:14:28 GMT -6
perhaps I'm off my rocker but the tail-end of the NAM nest looks EERILY similar to July 19, 2006. The upcoming pattern does have that MCS look to it |
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Post by cozpregon on May 30, 2019 11:51:10 GMT -6
perhaps I'm off my rocker but the tail-end of the NAM nest looks EERILY similar to July 19, 2006. The heat is just not there... 850s were 20*C+ (22*-23*). Not saying the storm threat is not there (looks quite interesting to me)... but most derechos like the extreme instability (5000j/kg+) the heat/high humidity brings. |
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Post by unclesam6 on May 30, 2019 12:03:04 GMT -6
perhaps I'm off my rocker but the tail-end of the NAM nest looks EERILY similar to July 19, 2006. The heat is just not there... 850s were 20*C+ (22*-23*). Not saying the storm threat is not there (looks quite interesting to me)... but most derechos like the extreme instability (5000j/kg+) the heat/high humidity brings. That was the one thing I noticed lacking. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 30, 2019 12:12:41 GMT -6
Where was that quake Chris?
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 30, 2019 15:54:41 GMT -6
6.6 El Salvador
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 30, 2019 17:14:23 GMT -6
I feel like I'm forgetting to do something this afternoon. There's no severe weather near us to watch on radar.
Not that I'm complaining, mind you. It's just that it's become part of the afternoon routine.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on May 30, 2019 17:26:52 GMT -6
Ok this is pretty cool
Reed Timmer
@reedtimmeraccu
·
9m
BREAKING NEWS!!! I just got off the phone with Matthew DuBois, Jerry Belk who found the ROCKET sensor with parachute just short of KC Airport! This is huge. Due to this miracle we will now have 10 Hz data for the entire flight inside EF4 tornado and 3D animation of its flight!
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 30, 2019 17:33:21 GMT -6
Ok this is pretty cool Reed Timmer @reedtimmeraccu · 9m BREAKING NEWS!!! I just got off the phone with Matthew DuBois, Jerry Belk who found the ROCKET sensor with parachute just short of KC Airport! This is huge. Due to this miracle we will now have 10 Hz data for the entire flight inside EF4 tornado and 3D animation of its flight! So... he fired a rocket into air space near a busy international airport. I would think the FAA might have something to say about that. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on May 30, 2019 17:44:54 GMT -6
lol actually it went up in Kansas and traveled like 30 miles.... but yes that’s crazy to think about what could have happened
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on May 30, 2019 18:54:54 GMT -6
MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR WEST QUINCY (MO) DUE TO LEVEE BREAK. TAKE ACTION NOW TO LEAVE THE AREA. MAJOR FLOODING IN WEST QUINCY IS IMMINENT - AUTHORITY NORTH FABIUS DRAINAGE DISTRICT
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 30, 2019 19:58:14 GMT -6
MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR WEST QUINCY (MO) DUE TO LEVEE BREAK. TAKE ACTION NOW TO LEAVE THE AREA. MAJOR FLOODING IN WEST QUINCY IS IMMINENT - AUTHORITY NORTH FABIUS DRAINAGE DISTRICT That leaves Hannibal as the only open river crossing between Alton and Fort Madison Iowa. The "good" news in this is that this levee break along with others north of us are lowering the waters a bit. Not sure if that will hold long term or just delay the crest. |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 31, 2019 0:04:48 GMT -6
Just had a couple guys check in at the hotel, that are mets. They're going storm chasing out west (now that's quieted down, lol) One of them worked at !AccuNotWx!..with Joe Bastardi, said he's not fun to work with and thinks he knows everything. Lol.
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Post by jmg378s on May 31, 2019 6:29:02 GMT -6
Just had a couple guys check in at the hotel, that are mets. They're going storm chasing out west (now that's quieted down, lol) One of them worked at !AccuNotWx!..with Joe Bastardi, said he's not fun to work with and thinks he knows everything. Lol.
Ha, not surprised...
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 31, 2019 7:07:12 GMT -6
Interesting map  |
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Post by mchafin on May 31, 2019 7:14:08 GMT -6
Although probably not the intent of your 'interesting' comment about that map - but what's interesting is how Alaska looks. It looks like a sad, deflated version of itself.
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Post by dschreib on May 31, 2019 8:09:25 GMT -6
Tornadoes: "We're not in Kansas, anymore." |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 31, 2019 8:18:01 GMT -6
Looking at the set-up for tomorrow evening... I would not discount the tornado potential. Granted, low level flow is not all that impressive...the directional sheer in the low levels is pretty healthy. In some ways this looks like the St. Peters tornado from a couple years ago...the tornado that touched down in the flood waters and did a lot of tree damage...but not much else. The same day as the Eolia tornado.
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 31, 2019 8:19:00 GMT -6
There is a TON of CAPE in the mid levels...and within the hail zone... so I think very large hail may be a problem...perhaps larger than golf ball...up to isolated tennis balls...which is pretty darn big.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 31, 2019 8:22:16 GMT -6
It's been a very active stretch across much of the nation but notably across the Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont region.
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on May 31, 2019 8:31:11 GMT -6
Tent camping Saturday evening in Steelville MO. Will have four kids age 5 and under. Hopefully we will be far enough south to avoid the big stuff.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 31, 2019 9:35:30 GMT -6
Although probably not the intent of your 'interesting' comment about that map - but what's interesting is how Alaska looks. It looks like a sad, deflated version of itself. I hadn't noticed that, but you're right. It looks like a mylar balloon after about 2 months. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 31, 2019 9:53:17 GMT -6
The pattern developing towards the middle of next week is starting to look pretty unsettled and potentially rainy. A subtropical disturbance in the W Gulf...possibly a tropical depression/storm...is going to interact with the cut off upper low meandering out of the SW and draw deep moisture up into the region ahead of it. That's going to set the stage for multiple rounds of storms and soaking rains. Luckily there is an overall break in the active pattern currently as the river crest makes it's way through the region. I'm optimistic that this lull and the levee breaches upstream will keep this crest several feet below 93 levels...for now.
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Post by rb1108 on May 31, 2019 10:48:16 GMT -6
Met on another channel said last evening that the severe weather chances were very low the next few days. Is this no longer the case for tomorrow?
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on May 31, 2019 12:04:00 GMT -6
Met on another channel said last evening that the severe weather chances were very low the next few days. Is this no longer the case for tomorrow? Not sure who said what but the SPC has us in an Enhanced Risk for tomorrow. |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on May 31, 2019 12:08:37 GMT -6
I count 13 steps from the river to the 93 marker. The upper stairs have 22.  |
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