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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on May 31, 2019 12:13:04 GMT -6
Met on another channel said last evening that the severe weather chances were very low the next few days. Is this no longer the case for tomorrow? Not sure who said what but the SPC has us in an Enhanced Risk for tomorrow. Is this a better setup the our enhanced risk we had the other day? |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 31, 2019 12:50:23 GMT -6
Quite smokey from the Canadian Wildfires according to the Satellite for much of the Midwest. Could be an interesting sunset tonight.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 31, 2019 12:51:49 GMT -6
Threat for Saturday night seems to be escalating quickly. Looks like a good set up for some kind of bow/squall line from the northwest with mainly damaging winds and some hail.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on May 31, 2019 12:55:12 GMT -6
Even more interesting is the fact that the short term models blow this thing up to something gnarly, but the globals a la GFS/FV3-GFS and Canadian/GEM don't seem all to impressed and keep us dry. I see high bust potential but hopefully things clear up a bit by tomorrow morning as to what's likely to happen.
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Post by bdgwx on May 31, 2019 13:23:20 GMT -6
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on May 31, 2019 13:38:30 GMT -6
The pattern developing towards the middle of next week is starting to look pretty unsettled and potentially rainy. A subtropical disturbance in the W Gulf...possibly a tropical depression/storm...is going to interact with the cut off upper low meandering out of the SW and draw deep moisture up into the region ahead of it. That's going to set the stage for multiple rounds of storms and soaking rains. Luckily there is an overall break in the active pattern currently as the river crest makes it's way through the region. I'm optimistic that this lull and the levee breaches upstream will keep this crest several feet below 93 levels...for now. A tropical or semi-tropical system is pretty high on the list of things that we do not need right now. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on May 31, 2019 14:44:50 GMT -6
As a person who is not a fan of enhanced risks... I must admit I think this one fits. I have no problem with location and extent. Tomorrow could produce some pretty prolific hail...and considering the inverted V type sounding... some pretty healthy wind gusts. Organization will be helped along by nice turning in the low level hodographs. I would not discount a tornado threat... but hail and wind are by far the bigger potential.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on May 31, 2019 14:44:51 GMT -6
Listening to the radio on my way to work. Heard 3 forecasts that all said dry and sunny Saturday and Sunday. No mention of any chance of storms.
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Post by bdgwx on May 31, 2019 15:42:44 GMT -6
The FV3 has been showing that tropical disturbance off and on ever since it came into the 300+ range. The Euro has it pulling moisture into the middle of country as well.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on May 31, 2019 16:21:16 GMT -6
Enjoy this break. Tomorrows storms in the evening, but next week things get going again. Lots of potential for storms and intense rains with ams very slow to move things along. Too early for severe talk but next week tells me flooding is going to be around for a long time.
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Post by toddatfarmington on May 31, 2019 17:53:16 GMT -6
Enjoy this break. Tomorrows storms in the evening, but next week things get going again. Lots of potential for storms and intense rains with ams very slow to move things along. Too early for severe talk but next week tells me flooding is going to be around for a long time. WPC 7 day looks ugly for KS/OK/SW MO |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on May 31, 2019 18:10:48 GMT -6
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Post by nascarfan999 on May 31, 2019 18:59:47 GMT -6
bdgwx, if you were at the STL riverfront today, we might have been there at the same time! Did they move this guy (Lewis or Clark?) from nearer the Eads Bridge? I remember snapping a photo from there. I'm pretty sure they moved him to higher ground to keep it from constantly flooding. |
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Post by unclesam6 on May 31, 2019 19:44:30 GMT -6
May I post a couple of these on my FB page? |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on May 31, 2019 19:46:59 GMT -6
Enjoy this break. Tomorrows storms in the evening, but next week things get going again. Lots of potential for storms and intense rains with ams very slow to move things along. Too early for severe talk but next week tells me flooding is going to be around for a long time. If it were winter, we know those amounts would be really over blown. Since this is summer though, and we don't need the rain, they will be too low or in the wrong location. |
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Post by jmg378s on May 31, 2019 21:27:08 GMT -6
Enjoy this break. Tomorrows storms in the evening, but next week things get going again. Lots of potential for storms and intense rains with ams very slow to move things along. Too early for severe talk but next week tells me flooding is going to be around for a long time. WPC 7 day looks ugly for KS/OK/SW MO Right there in the Arkansas river basin which is currently near, at, or shattering record crests in the state of Arkansas. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 31, 2019 21:59:22 GMT -6
Here are pictures from near the Eads Bridge. Level = 42.8' May I post a couple of these on my FB page? Yes. Everything I post here is fair game for anyone. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 31, 2019 22:02:20 GMT -6
bdgwx, if you were at the STL riverfront today, we might have been there at the same time! I was there from about 2:00pm to 2:30pm. |
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Post by bdgwx on May 31, 2019 22:38:40 GMT -6
Quite smokey from the Canadian Wildfires according to the Satellite for much of the Midwest. Could be an interesting sunset tonight. HRRR shows the smoke plume moving over St. Louis tomorrow afternoon. |
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Post by Snowman99 on May 31, 2019 22:40:48 GMT -6
I smell smoke coming down hwy 50 here. lol
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on May 31, 2019 23:04:59 GMT -6
I wondered what was up with the sky today...smoke makes sense because it didn't look like normal cirrus...it had that hazy look to it most of the day.
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Post by cozpregon on May 31, 2019 23:07:30 GMT -6
My guess is SPC shifts the enhanced risk further east... from west of STL to IND
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 1, 2019 0:11:22 GMT -6
Shrunk the enhanced a bit. We're still in it. Goes to the IL IN border..coz was close
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jun 1, 2019 5:05:44 GMT -6
Shrunk the enhanced a bit. We're still in it. Goes to the IL IN border..coz was close No too bad though. Looks like we are all still in it. |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jun 1, 2019 5:28:28 GMT -6
Today looking far less impressive then yesterday for storm chances. The smoke might be a part of the reason along with limited moisture that the models have overcooked until now. Might see something pop today but just as likely might not. Feeling most might stay dry yet again today.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 1, 2019 5:29:26 GMT -6
lol
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 1, 2019 7:17:43 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 1, 2019 7:54:23 GMT -6
What is the timing? I have DIRECTV and will be highly upset if its raining during the game.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Jun 1, 2019 8:21:53 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 1, 2019 8:49:17 GMT -6
Storm getting ready to cross the IA/MO border has an overshooting top already...thinking some of these storms could be pretty nasty today. There's enough bulk shear and low-level turning/SRH for a tornado threat as well. Thinking IL side and along the river is going to be favored with the strongest upper forcing staying a bit north of the region but the front may light up further W.
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