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Post by cozpregon on Jun 21, 2019 14:16:14 GMT -6
High and dry for tomorrow according to almost all guidance. Probably going to get mid 90s if things are close enough for storms to pull up warm air from the south. Heat Advisory may be necessary. Glad I got the lawn done tonight, this weekend looks like a Sauna.
Edit: I say that, but the NMM, WRF, and ARW clobber us as well as the RAP. Metro northeast still very much in the threat for now. Logically thinking even if the first round of storms is north it should draw a outflow boundary for secondary storm clusters to follow farther south. Gonna be interesting one way or another.
Doesn't feel like 90s brolio |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 21, 2019 14:20:16 GMT -6
Looks like we’ll have to deal with a “round 3” later tonight. That should get going this evening over northern Mo
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jun 21, 2019 14:29:30 GMT -6
Looks like we’ll have to deal with a “round 3” later tonight. That should get going this evening over northern Mo in fairness, on the long count since about late October, this is round #3,276. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jun 21, 2019 14:30:15 GMT -6
according to radar, I should be getting steady rain right now. Not anything above an occasional drop here and there for the past hour.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 21, 2019 14:35:56 GMT -6
so since the southern route obviously played out today, how does the affect the weekend?
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Jun 21, 2019 14:38:51 GMT -6
Per the STL NWS twitter, the radar site was down due to a lightning strike, but it now back up and running. Meant to send this earlier but thanks for reporting that. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jun 21, 2019 14:39:01 GMT -6
nevermind, now its steady again.
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 21, 2019 15:01:26 GMT -6
so since the southern route obviously played out today, how does the affect the weekend? My 2 cents... The effective boundary is now along the MO/AR border... models aren't close to accurate with that in the short term. Have to wonder if they are developing the tonight storms a bit too far north. Flow is full of shortwaves... so not sure we can see enough of a break to get mid 90s like it looked earlier. If I were temp forecasting I would post 90 for both Sat and Sun and hope for the best. If we get a morning break either day- afternoon severe threat certainly would be possible. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 21, 2019 15:25:59 GMT -6
Somebody is going to get a boatoad of rain tonight... and I am affraid it will be along the Missouri River.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jun 21, 2019 15:28:07 GMT -6
Somebody is going to get a boatoad of rain tonight... and I am affraid it will be along the Missouri River. Hate to say it. But it could handle the water better than the Meremac at this point. No where for it to go once it hits Mississippi |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 21, 2019 15:39:05 GMT -6
For anyone who might be heading that direction IDoT is closing the road that connects Cape Girardeau to IL 3 because of flooding.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jun 21, 2019 15:52:20 GMT -6
Somebody is going to get a boatoad of rain tonight... and I am affraid it will be along the Missouri River. Hate to say it. But it could handle the water better than the Meremac at this point. No where for it to go once it hits Mississippi Meremac is slowly rising. Running high but not terrible (down by me anyway). But it won’t take much more to send it rising faster. |
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jun 21, 2019 15:57:23 GMT -6
Somebody is going to get a boatoad of rain tonight... and I am affraid it will be along the Missouri River. out west and diving south of here? or straight into the metro? I desperately need some dry time early morning for some moving stuff. |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jun 21, 2019 16:04:59 GMT -6
Happy today's shift is over. Just not really happy with how things went... on air or with the forecast. Im still trying to figure out a good workflow that I am comfortable with during severe weather on the AM shift... and I am not there yet. I thought it went well, but I'm no expert! |
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Jun 21, 2019 16:10:42 GMT -6
So are we heading into a drier pattern for a while, or is Mother Nature just going to tease us next week?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 21, 2019 16:25:40 GMT -6
Forgot to put my gauge out but we got buckets of rain here in Perryville again.
Looks like after Sunday's round, we will transition to the typical summertime daytime storms will take over. The parade of systems looks like it will finally relax.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Jun 21, 2019 16:44:03 GMT -6
Would someone tell me why the wind is blowing so much right now? Out of the southeast here in North St. Pete. Laymen's terms, please.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 21, 2019 16:58:02 GMT -6
Somebody is going to get a boatoad of rain tonight... and I am affraid it will be along the Missouri River. 12z EC did quite well with today's convection...it has tonight's MCS(s) developing across NW MO and tracking through the N counties. But I would tend to agree with you and Coz...the composite outflow has pushed WAAAAAAY further S than most models forecast(especially the NAM which was 200mi+ too far N with today's activity). Thinking W/Central MO into S IL will be favored for the next round tonight which could push storm total rainfall to 3-5"+ in spots...already widespread 2-3" radar estimated rainfall across the MO river valley. |
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Post by cozpregon on Jun 21, 2019 17:01:18 GMT -6
Would someone tell me why the wind is blowing so much right now? Out of the southeast here in North St. Pete. Laymen's terms, please. The rain cooled air- meso high behind the MCS across SE IL is creating a gradient |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 21, 2019 17:03:38 GMT -6
Would someone tell me why the wind is blowing so much right now? Out of the southeast here in North St. Pete. Laymen's terms, please. Wake low/bubble high...pressure spike of 6mb+ across S IL with drop of 6-7mb across central MO. |
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Post by perryville on Jun 21, 2019 17:05:18 GMT -6
Seeing pics and information from Perryville and to the south. 2nd round of storms turned severe. Downed trees/wind damage seem to be the major issue.
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Post by perryville on Jun 21, 2019 17:37:07 GMT -6
Roof got peeled off the top of the KC Hall in Perryville. Building still standing and in ok shape.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 21, 2019 18:15:35 GMT -6
Few storms developing in ne KS
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 21, 2019 18:21:42 GMT -6
Mustered .65” this afternoon.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 21, 2019 18:29:10 GMT -6
MMMmmmm..mustard
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 21, 2019 18:44:18 GMT -6
Few storms developing in ne KS Including one that generated a funnel cloud |
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Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 21, 2019 18:51:08 GMT -6
Happy today's shift is over. Just not really happy with how things went... on air or with the forecast. Im still trying to figure out a good workflow that I am comfortable with during severe weather on the AM shift... and I am not there yet. I thought it went well, but I'm no expert! I would agree and think the forecast I saw at 7am matched up very well with what happened. I will say I was expecting Chris to hedge a little more on-air given the uncertainty here in the forum, but again the result turned out really good I think. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 21, 2019 18:57:05 GMT -6
Slight risk for the rest of the night for the area and a good chunk of the area tomorrow. Storm watch now in NW MO. It'll be interesting to see what transpires the next 5-10 hours.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 21, 2019 19:21:02 GMT -6
I thought it went well, but I'm no expert! I would agree and think the forecast I saw at 7am matched up very well with what happened. I will say I was expecting Chris to hedge a little more on-air given the uncertainty here in the forum, but again the result turned out really good I think. Probably as much me just feeling rushed all morning... and never feeling like I had a firm grip on how the day would playout. With so many hits (42 hits over 6 hours) it can be tough to keep up with what is REALLY going on. And there is no doubt that forecasting from a morning perspective is a different animal than forecasting at the end of the day looking ahead to tomorrow. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jun 21, 2019 19:41:48 GMT -6
I know its out of our area, but the local cbs affiliate in southeast missouri had pics of storm damage in jackson, mo with lots of large trees fallen on homes, and even roof damage. In scott city lightning struck a church or possibly a power line nearby, causing the church to burn to the ground. What a day for those folks. I just had lightning damage, no wind, and quite a gully washer.
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