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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 22, 2019 8:45:30 GMT -6
This is the worst I've ever seen the short term models perform. Really all you can do is look at radar and go from there. I expect that to be true through tomorrow as well.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Jun 22, 2019 8:55:35 GMT -6
Running total from yesterday plus this morning is 2.7" according to the Davis on the roof in North St. Pete.
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Post by ajd446 on Jun 22, 2019 8:57:48 GMT -6
How bad are we expecting the rains to be tomorrow because we cant handle anymore and the.missouri river is getting a ton of water
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 22, 2019 9:03:28 GMT -6
That cluster is starting to bow. Could be a wind threat developing for some down this way.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jun 22, 2019 9:18:43 GMT -6
ill say it: this is awful. the radar image is like a bad practical joke.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 22, 2019 9:24:11 GMT -6
THE LLJ should weaken considerably and pull back west soon. When that happens current convection that is focused along western flank of the outflow boundary will collapse. Pretty quickly skies will thun and the surge of surface warm air will commence. I am not convinced that we still dont pop into the 90s today. It will just take a while to get there. The hot air is not that far away.
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Post by dschreib on Jun 22, 2019 9:25:11 GMT -6
I'm pretty tired of rain. If we didn't win the STANLEY CUP, BABY!!!!!!!...I'd be kinda cranky. The rain is getting old. Saying STANLEY CUP CHAMPIONS isn't.
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 22, 2019 9:27:06 GMT -6
Just pouring buckets in Festus! Thunder and lightning off and on and no big wind!
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Post by bororug on Jun 22, 2019 9:30:21 GMT -6
Not to much wind to speak of just SW of Desoto. Rain & lightning is definitely impressive!
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Post by The Commish- Lake St. Louis on Jun 22, 2019 9:35:43 GMT -6
2.32” here as of yesterday according to the roof rain gauge.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 22, 2019 9:40:01 GMT -6
Storm cluster approaching Bowling Green looks strong with a hail core developing...assuming it will weaken as it approaches the rain cooled/stable airmass but it also has a lot of inflow currently from the reservoir of unstable airmass across MO.
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 22, 2019 9:40:59 GMT -6
So can we expect this to do a repeat tomorrow (Sunday) as well?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 22, 2019 9:44:58 GMT -6
THE LLJ should weaken considerably and pull back west soon. When that happens current convection that is focused along western flank of the outflow boundary will collapse. Pretty quickly skies will thun and the surge of surface warm air will commence. I am not convinced that we still dont pop into the 90s today. It will just take a while to get there. The hot air is not that far away. Seems a million miles away here...wind due east and 68* but the scud just off the deck is streaming N/NE... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jun 22, 2019 9:45:06 GMT -6
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2019
Second round of convection that moved in just before sunrise into
central/northeast MO and then the STL metro area and lingered deep
into the morning hours will be too much to overcome for a recovery
to dangerous heat and humidity levels. As a result, the Heat
Advisory has been cancelled for the STL metro area. it will still
be quite humid, just not as hot.
These areas of thunderstorms are still expected to gradually wane
and become more scattered heading into the afternoon, with a
conditional severe risk with what does develop, but it will be a
low chance of anything new developing. This fairly quiet scenario
could persist deep into this evening before the next round moves
in.
TES
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Post by REB on Jun 22, 2019 9:48:06 GMT -6
1.44” since yesterday. .72 since midnight. Still raining.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 22, 2019 9:50:36 GMT -6
So can we expect this to do a repeat tomorrow (Sunday) as well? Yes, although it looks like there could be a lull late morning or mid-day...but as we've seen outflow and mesoscale trends can quickly make things murky and chaotic. There's potential for several more rounds over the next 48hrs or so...not good news for the flooding, especially along the lower MO basin and tributaries like the Meramec. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jun 22, 2019 9:57:31 GMT -6
If I start at noon and smoke some short ribs... will I get them done? Decisions decisions...
EDIT: thinking they're gonna have to wait till tomorrow.
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luvhockey
Junior Forecaster
Arnold MO 1/2 mile from the Meramec Mississippi confluence
Posts: 455
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Post by luvhockey on Jun 22, 2019 10:11:44 GMT -6
Speaking of the Meramec. The area by 55 has been underwater for 2 months. No exaggeration. I usually walk the 2 mile greenway trail every weekend with friends. It's been flooded forever!
The tree leaves are turning yellow on a big chunk of the trees.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 22, 2019 10:33:37 GMT -6
Speaking of the Meramec. The area by 55 has been underwater for 2 months. No exaggeration. I usually walk the 2 mile greenway trail every weekend with friends. It's been flooded forever! The tree leaves are turning yellow on a big chunk of the trees. This flood event is going to destroy a LOT of bottomland trees...that was one of the hallmarks of the 93 flood because the water level stayed high for so long. I've also been told that because backwaters stayed high into the winter, trees became ice ringed and this further damaged or weakened them. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 22, 2019 10:38:30 GMT -6
Looks like a gravity wave rolling south through St Chalres County on the velocity scans. It could get quite windy for a few minutes as it passes.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 22, 2019 10:39:50 GMT -6
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jun 22, 2019 10:48:07 GMT -6
No wind but thunder and lightning trying to reintensify
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jun 22, 2019 10:49:52 GMT -6
But with saturated ground, trees are susceptible to a lower threshold of winds. Be safe out there.
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Post by jeepers on Jun 22, 2019 10:53:16 GMT -6
Speaking of the Meramec. The area by 55 has been underwater for 2 months. No exaggeration. I usually walk the 2 mile greenway trail every weekend with friends. It's been flooded forever! The tree leaves are turning yellow on a big chunk of the trees. This flood event is going to destroy a LOT of bottomland trees...that was one of the hallmarks of the 93 flood because the water level stayed high for so long. I've also been told that because backwaters stayed high into the winter, trees became ice ringed and this further damaged or weakened them. It's how you suffocate trees. I've seen flooding involving trees in various places near or on the Mississippi in the past months from north STL to Memphis just a week ago. Depending upon the tree, some can die quickly and others that seem to survive, just take longer to die. Then those that are weakened are susceptible to fungus and bug damage. It's no different than drought in that regard, it's just thankfully not as widespread. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jun 22, 2019 18:23:36 GMT -6
Pretty active in eastern Kansas and NW Missouri already
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Post by unclesam6 on Jun 22, 2019 18:57:16 GMT -6
This pattern has given the models fits! Only made it to 84 at COU this afternoon. It's pretty cool to see how critical morning warming is to getting that afternoon heat cranking.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 22, 2019 19:13:39 GMT -6
I'm seeing a couple of waves moving NE to SW through the radar ground clutter. But I'm not seeing what generated them.
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Post by Spaz(Wrestlerdude) on Jun 22, 2019 19:31:55 GMT -6
Is all the activity in northern no expected to take the same routes again?
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 22, 2019 20:00:48 GMT -6
Southern Iowa, Northwest Missouri and Northeast Kansas getting slammed with rain again. Gonna make the Missouri River go up again.
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Post by mosue56 on Jun 22, 2019 20:09:26 GMT -6
How fast is the western MO line going and will it be during the night when it gets over here, anyone know?
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