|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jun 25, 2019 9:40:49 GMT -6
Looks like we go from mcs headaches to trying to forecast the whims of a weak cut-off low or shear axis trapped under the building ridge. Extended dry time is unlikely in that pattern. More waves of wet... but at least the timing will be a little easier as most will be diurnally driven. 700 temps under that axis stay relatively cool... never going above 10*C thru the week. The capped airmass looks to be well north & west of the area. Some big CAPE numbers each day too... but nothing noticeable on the models to trigger anything off. If something does develop- they will be slow movers and outflows will cause more development. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 25, 2019 12:13:05 GMT -6
Looks like we go from mcs headaches to trying to forecast the whims of a weak cut-off low or shear axis trapped under the building ridge. Extended dry time is unlikely in that pattern. More waves of wet... but at least the timing will be a little easier as most will be diurnally driven. 700 temps under that axis stay relatively cool... never going above 10*C thru the week. The capped airmass looks to be well north & west of the area. Some big CAPE numbers each day too... but nothing noticeable on the models to trigger anything off. If something does develop- they will be slow movers and outflows will cause more development. Looks like the classic "airmass" setup with isolated convection possible almost every day but quiet overall with upper ridging in control. The NW flow looks like it will try to become established again into July. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 25, 2019 12:26:11 GMT -6
One thing the will be interesting to watch are the tiny little 500mb vorticies That most of the models are showing on the Eastern and Southeastern periphery of the upper ridge. Any sort of wiggle will cause storms to focus considering The lack of capping. I really could have thrown a chance for spot storms in every day But opted to stay with Friday Saturday and Sunday more because that's where the models showed better proximity to the little spins yesterday... And I did not want to get into a flip flopping situation. Not very scientific I know.
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 25, 2019 12:38:52 GMT -6
Good to see a relaxation of the wet pattern, but I'm hoping we don't go into drought.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jun 25, 2019 14:50:28 GMT -6
One thing the will be interesting to watch are the tiny little 500mb vorticies That most of the models are showing on the Eastern and Southeastern periphery of the upper ridge. Any sort of wiggle will cause storms to focus considering The lack of capping. I really could have thrown a chance for spot storms in every day But opted to stay with Friday Saturday and Sunday more because that's where the models showed better proximity to the little spins yesterday... And I did not want to get into a flip flopping situation. Not very scientific I know. I'm not sure I would keep tomorrow afternoon/early evening completely dry.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 25, 2019 15:07:06 GMT -6
I did not post a symbol... but I verbalized there may be something...especially in the eastern Ozarks.
|
|
|
|
Post by nascarfan999 on Jun 25, 2019 19:32:08 GMT -6
700 temps under that axis stay relatively cool... never going above 10*C thru the week. The capped airmass looks to be well north & west of the area. Some big CAPE numbers each day too... but nothing noticeable on the models to trigger anything off. If something does develop- they will be slow movers and outflows will cause more development. Looks like the classic "airmass" setup with isolated convection possible almost every day but quiet overall with upper ridging in control. The NW flow looks like it will try to become established again into July. Am I correct to interpret this in layman's terms as "hot, humid, and a chance of rain for the foreseeable future"? |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 25, 2019 19:43:13 GMT -6
Took a drive to Orchard Farm this evening to deliver some flood relief supplies from our church to a church there. Was quite surprised to see at least some of the fields of corn are doing pretty well. Don't get me wrong - most are well behind where they should be. But I was expecting little or no crops doing well.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 26, 2019 4:24:00 GMT -6
Well... the MCS in southwest Missouri and Kansas was not on any model forecast... so that does not bode well for model trends (which is no big surprise).
It may also be a hint at what is to come with MCS's once again cresting the ridge and dropping more southeast with time the next few days.
I went ahead and did add a few storms to the mid/late afternoon forecast for today...as a trackable short wave responsible for Nebraska storms and the MCV associated with remnants of KS/MO storms both impact our area this afternoon and evening...with a hot and humid air mass in place.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tilawn on Jun 26, 2019 5:19:04 GMT -6
Thank you Chris for the update. I missed you on the BIG 550 this morning. Started working sooner then normal today.
|
|
|
|
Post by ComoEsJn on Jun 26, 2019 5:50:45 GMT -6
St. Louis since last fall:
(3 days out) - "ITS FINALLY GONNA BE DRY!"
(that day) - "EXCEPT FOR THE NEW BATCH OF RAIN!"
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 26, 2019 7:12:02 GMT -6
And now we have a SLIGHT risk.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 26, 2019 7:35:12 GMT -6
The remnant MCV is easily visible on satellite across SW MO...would think that will light up later today as it meanders into the region.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 26, 2019 8:19:02 GMT -6
Already 2500+ MLCAPE across the area and it’s only 9am. Storms that do get going today will have plenty of fuel
|
|
|
|
Post by scmhack on Jun 26, 2019 8:35:15 GMT -6
Already 2500+ MLCAPE across the area and it’s only 9am. Storms that do get going today will have plenty of fuel And now I have metalica stuck in my head at 930. GIVE ME FUEL GIVE ME FIRE GIVE ME FLOODS I DONT DESIRE |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 26, 2019 8:38:58 GMT -6
Yea I'd say anywhere south of I-44 has a solid chance at some strong storms today.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 26, 2019 8:45:23 GMT -6
Already 2500+ MLCAPE across the area and it’s only 9am. Storms that do get going today will have plenty of fuel 81*/75* here...juicy. |
|
|
|
Post by scmhack on Jun 26, 2019 9:23:03 GMT -6
Already 2500+ MLCAPE across the area and it’s only 9am. Storms that do get going today will have plenty of fuel 81*/75* here...juicy. Drink the air |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jun 26, 2019 9:56:18 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jun 26, 2019 10:45:11 GMT -6
Dont be suprised to see a few tornadoes today. With such a tight little spin... all that vorticity may spin off a few non supercell tornadoes.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jun 26, 2019 10:49:15 GMT -6
Very light shear out there, but CAPE is 3-5k j/kg depending on parcel of choice.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jun 26, 2019 10:49:42 GMT -6
Nice little MCV  |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Jun 26, 2019 10:52:25 GMT -6
DCAPES ahead of this are 1300+
|
|
|
|
Post by scmhack on Jun 26, 2019 11:52:29 GMT -6
SwampA** readings are off the charts
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 26, 2019 11:52:54 GMT -6
In an attempt to better understand CAPE, which is the one you look at most? Right now I see SBCAPE of 5000 which seems crazy high. Which one would you look at most in this scenario?
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jun 26, 2019 12:04:19 GMT -6
This is the day of heat and humidity we didn't get on Saturday. YUCK!! My thermometer is showing 93; Lambert says 91 with a heat index of 97.
Welcome to summer.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jun 26, 2019 12:06:05 GMT -6
In an attempt to better understand CAPE, which is the one you look at most? Right now I see SBCAPE of 5000 which seems crazy high. Which one would you look at most in this scenario? Mixed Layer Cape is usually the most realistic to use during the day. It averages out the potential available energy in the lowest 100mb of the atmosphere. Surface based cape tends to be skewed to high from dew points pooling right at the surface During night I usually look at Most Unstable Cape as the boundary layer cools and the best CAPE becomes elevated |
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jun 26, 2019 12:07:25 GMT -6
With Fourth of July just a week away just wondering how does the forecast look for that so far?
|
|
|
|
Post by scmhack on Jun 26, 2019 12:11:25 GMT -6
With Fourth of July just a week away just wondering how does the forecast look for that so far? I feel like today is gonna be a good parallel |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Jun 26, 2019 12:13:58 GMT -6
Storms starting to pop now.
|
|
