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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 20, 2019 7:50:35 GMT -6
HRRR sort of dissolves it then reforms some cells along the boundary in the afternoon. Idk, it looks pretty solid right now.
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Post by goosetalk - Troy, MO on Aug 20, 2019 7:56:04 GMT -6
Radar does seem to show that bow and arrow scenario mentioned yesterday.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 20, 2019 8:14:24 GMT -6
HRRR sort of dissolves it then reforms some cells along the boundary in the afternoon. Idk, it looks pretty solid right now. Not sure I’d put much stock in the HRRR currently. It’s sim radar doesn’t match up to the current radar |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 20, 2019 8:21:10 GMT -6
HRRR sort of dissolves it then reforms some cells along the boundary in the afternoon. Idk, it looks pretty solid right now. Not sure I’d put much stock in the HRRR currently. It’s sim radar doesn’t match up to the current radar Yea it's not even close. It has been pretty abysmal at times. Actual radar is showing intensification and expansion on the SW flank of the line. No to mention the development along the "tail." |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 20, 2019 8:32:45 GMT -6
Biggest limiting factor currently is weak low-level lapse rates around 5-6*C/km...that could prevent widespread destructive winds. But MUCAPE is running between 3-4000j/kg so there's plenty of energy for the complex to be maintained.
Some great shelf cloud pics coming in from W/Central IL...
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
Member is Online
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Post by modracer on Aug 20, 2019 8:35:13 GMT -6
Feel ya, my Davis took a spill off the roof in a storm, not sure how. So it needs to go back for a rebuild, if Davis has a repair facility, otherwise I'll just buy a new one. We got a pretty nice down pour with the severe cell (wasn't severe here) that popped up near ofallon il. I am kicking myself for not replacing my rain gauge that I broke in February. Oh well. Looking forward to getting to the airport to pick up my wife as this thing gets here tomorrow. I am sure either the flight gets delayed or I'll be driving home in it. Yay. Good night cornerers. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 20, 2019 8:57:55 GMT -6
Feel ya, my Davis took a spill off the roof in a storm, not sure how. So it needs to go back for a rebuild, if Davis has a repair facility, otherwise I'll just buy a new one. We got a pretty nice down pour with the severe cell (wasn't severe here) that popped up near ofallon il. I am kicking myself for not replacing my rain gauge that I broke in February. Oh well. Looking forward to getting to the airport to pick up my wife as this thing gets here tomorrow. I am sure either the flight gets delayed or I'll be driving home in it. Yay. Good night cornerers. You can send it to Davis to be refurbished...their customer support is very good. |
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 20, 2019 9:03:07 GMT -6
Looks like not much for metro seems to be falling apart
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 20, 2019 9:22:33 GMT -6
It definitely is losing intensity.
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Post by ajd446 on Aug 20, 2019 9:29:47 GMT -6
I am betting not a drop in metro. Oh well we dont need the wind. Lots of rain tomorrow amd thursday anyway
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modracer
Weather Intern
MASCOUTAH, Illinois
Posts: 835
Member is Online
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Post by modracer on Aug 20, 2019 9:53:04 GMT -6
You got that right, don't need wind. There are busy little bees setting up over at WWT Raceway(Gateway), getting ready for this weekends INDY car race. There is a lot of temporary structures being erected at the track, that don't like wind when being assembled I am betting not a drop in metro. Oh well we dont need the wind. Lots of rain tomorrow amd thursday anyway |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Aug 20, 2019 9:57:55 GMT -6
Outflow through here in Brighton...35-45mph winds and a nice looking shelf cloud. This complex is definitely blowing out but I think the western flank will continue to backbuild and hit the metro...but the severe risk isn't as high as previously thought.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 20, 2019 10:02:22 GMT -6
Outflow through here in Brighton...35-45mph winds and a nice looking shelf cloud. This complex is definitely blowing out but I think the western flank will continue to backbuild and hit the metro...but the severe risk isn't as high as previously thought. I thought the MCS would dive more south for sure. But I agree, I think we will see storms continue to build on the western flank and move toward the metro |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 20, 2019 10:55:32 GMT -6
Sure hope I get something out of this. Even just rain would be nice
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Aug 20, 2019 11:10:27 GMT -6
Looks to me like mo part of metro will hv heavy rain starting at 2, then continuing into rush.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Aug 20, 2019 11:45:49 GMT -6
The old shelf cloud is visible here from Festus, and some new cells are firing along it. Severe threat seems minimal from here on out but I think most see some rain and storms when all is said and done.
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 20, 2019 12:08:14 GMT -6
So are the storms later this afternoon going to more of a heavy rain event than severe thunderstorm event?
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Post by amstilost on Aug 20, 2019 12:53:42 GMT -6
sneak preview of winter?  ? How does all of that skip Jeffco so far??? |
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Post by Snowman99 on Aug 20, 2019 13:09:24 GMT -6
 So this is the rain and storms talking to themselves moving to Franklin county |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Aug 20, 2019 13:18:31 GMT -6
It’s really like a joke at this point here lol. Rain fades then explodes to the south lol
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Aug 20, 2019 13:31:14 GMT -6
Wow...just faded around St.L and west only to reform everywhere else
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 20, 2019 13:33:07 GMT -6
The Thunder Storm Watch has been dropped in St. Louis.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Aug 20, 2019 13:37:16 GMT -6
It’s really like a joke at this point here lol. Rain fades then explodes to the south lol Ya that’s annoying. Atleast we shouldn't have any shortage of rain chances in the coming days |
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Post by mosue56 on Aug 20, 2019 13:47:52 GMT -6
Snowstorm 920, the rain has been forecasted every day and nothing! It’s like liquid snow falling apart with the Arch effect, splitsville north or south!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Aug 20, 2019 13:48:36 GMT -6
Looked to me as if the focus shifted or jumped from the outflow boundary to the differential heating boundary created by the high thick cirrus canopy.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Aug 20, 2019 13:50:06 GMT -6
I have to work today. Only explanation for a 100% chance of rain to go sour. If I was off today it'd be raining buckets. Good news... I'm off tomorrow and Thursday so we should get pummeled.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Aug 20, 2019 13:54:45 GMT -6
Today broke the trend of no rain here. Had some street flooding, reportable wind gust of 47mph, and pea size hail.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Aug 20, 2019 14:04:33 GMT -6
I had a 5 minute shower about 245, but so far that's it. Heard some distant thunder, if that counts. Now the sun is back out
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Post by Jeffmw on Aug 20, 2019 14:09:31 GMT -6
A preview of Winter.
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Post by jmg378s on Aug 20, 2019 14:09:59 GMT -6
That is one long arcing MCS. More or less, if you're generous, stretches from southeast Wisconsin through Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois all the way to central Missouri.
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? How does all of that skip Jeffco so far???
