|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 16:29:34 GMT -6
GFs looks good just keeps it all rain for whatever reason 850mb temps above 0*C. We got the GEM/EURO/NAM on our side tho! |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 16:38:56 GMT -6
question .. seems like NWS is leaning on GFS for the late week storm. Is Euro and NAM showing any rain? Curious as to why the NWS seems to give more weight to the GFS and it's warmer solution? A week ago, the NWS was forecasting snow to rain for our "ice storm" this past Friday around 4 days out. Look at the result...not much if any snow, but some sleet and mostly freezing rain on elevated surfaces. But then plenty rain which was expected 4-5 days out. There many possibilities with this thread the needle storm being only 2-3 days out. I believe the recent NAM is a icy mix to snow, with maybe some rain during the day Thursday, but it looks mainly snow. Someone else can tell you about the Euro, I'm not sure if it shows rain. Snowstorm920 said it showed some healthy snowfall amounts today. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2020 16:38:57 GMT -6
GFs looks good just keeps it all rain for whatever reason 850mb temps above 0*C. We got the GEM/EURO/NAM on our side tho! For a good chunk GFS has 850s below 0, but rain.. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Jan 20, 2020 16:40:10 GMT -6
Still tons of junk under the radar. Getting reports of snow 50+ miles to the northwest of Columbia.
|
|
|
|
Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 20, 2020 16:41:48 GMT -6
Just flurries I seen in Shiloh about an hour ago, nothing all day in Mascoutah.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 16:42:39 GMT -6
850mb temps above 0*C. We got the GEM/EURO/NAM on our side tho! For a good chunk GFS has 850s below 0, but rain.. Good call, my bad! Your right, didn't look closely enough. When precip first breaks out, the 850mb temps are above 0*C. Then 850mb temps cool below 0*C, which you point out. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2020 16:44:34 GMT -6
Hwy 47 between Union and Washington is apparently moving about 10 mph from a couple people I talked to.
|
|
|
|
Post by bororug on Jan 20, 2020 16:46:02 GMT -6
We’re at 1/2”. Roads are snow covered just SW of Desoto.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2020 16:46:32 GMT -6
850mb temps above 0*C. We got the GEM/EURO/NAM on our side tho! For a good chunk GFS has 850s below 0, but rain.. Looks like a very shallow layer of above freezing temps near the surface. Dynamic cooling would take care of that easily I think |
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 20, 2020 16:49:05 GMT -6
Hwy 47 between Union and Washington is apparently moving about 10 mph from a couple people I talked to. Does that on a lot of days when it’s not snowing too. LOL! |
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Jan 20, 2020 16:49:31 GMT -6
Teleconnections moving into next week won’t be helping us as we go into phase 5 of the MJO with a positive EPO. We can’t catch a break this winter.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2020 16:53:15 GMT -6
We have caught a few breaks this winter, and will continue to have to get lucky it appears to get much snow. The polar vortex looks to be nice and strong, keeping the arctic closed off for the most part.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 16:53:44 GMT -6
For a good chunk GFS has 850s below 0, but rain.. Looks like a very shallow layer of above freezing temps near the surface. Dynamic cooling would take care of that easily I think I agree dynamic cooling should help, but it's close. The good news is that precip looks to start late Wednesday or after midnight Thursday when there's no solar insolation. |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Jan 20, 2020 16:56:02 GMT -6
beautiful pea-sized flakes, blue & purple skies in the sunset, mid level clouds spilling through. Bitterly cold. It's like a perfect winter evening out right now.
|
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 20, 2020 16:56:45 GMT -6
We have caught a few breaks this winter, and will continue to have to get lucky it appears to get much snow. The polar vortex looks to be nice and strong, keeping the arctic closed off for the most part. Some of us are still waiting for our breaks..... this winter has been awful down this way |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2020 17:01:02 GMT -6
Hwy 47 between Union and Washington is apparently moving about 10 mph from a couple people I talked to. Does that on a lot of days when it’s not snowing too. LOL! This is true |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 17:05:22 GMT -6
For a good chunk GFS has 850s below 0, but rain.. Looks like a very shallow layer of above freezing temps near the surface. Dynamic cooling would take care of that easily I think Yeah you would think dynamic cooling would take over if the snow rate is moderate/heavy.  |
|
|
|
Post by jeffcobeeman on Jan 20, 2020 17:11:04 GMT -6
So... I guess we should enjoy our week of winter!
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2020 17:11:14 GMT -6
If we get a few inches of snow later this week, our winter will have been pretty good so far relative to the weather patterns in the US. We could easily have next to nothing, I think we have gotten very lucky considering the global pattern.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2020 17:21:57 GMT -6
Looks like a very shallow layer of above freezing temps near the surface. Dynamic cooling would take care of that easily I think Yeah you would think dynamic cooling would take over if the snow rate is moderate/heavy. That’s right when the precep is moving in. That’s a degree or two off from a freezing rain sounding. The soundings show the warm layer becoming weaker and the system evolves |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 17:23:56 GMT -6
Yeah you would think dynamic cooling would take over if the snow rate is moderate/heavy. That’s right when the precep is moving in. That’s a degree or two off from a freezing rain sounding. The soundings show the warm layer becoming weaker and the system evolves Yeah it's going to interesting to forecast to say the least. |
|
|
|
Post by snowjunky on Jan 20, 2020 17:26:45 GMT -6
Local Mets don’t seem to be concerned for accumulating snow at end of week.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2020 17:36:53 GMT -6
That's because it's Monday, it's a borderline situation with temps at the surface, and it's St. Louis.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 20, 2020 17:49:41 GMT -6
18z gfs ensemble mean beefing up...
A couple monsters in there
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2020 18:01:12 GMT -6
Nice what is the mean
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Jan 20, 2020 18:03:06 GMT -6
18z gfs ensemble mean beefing up... A couple monsters in there What was your final total with your recent snow storm in Chicago? Probably hard to measure with all the drifts. Hope you get in on the future action too. |
|
|
|
Post by jeepers on Jan 20, 2020 18:03:40 GMT -6
And I’m supposed to fly out of here Thursday am.. argh. so am I. somewhat hoping for an earlier start making it harder to justify going on the trip. I’m supposed to be having fun. :/ |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2020 18:03:43 GMT -6
mean in stl looks about 3
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 20, 2020 18:06:20 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 20, 2020 18:07:54 GMT -6
They just showed on the news it looked like 3-5” is that about right World Series?
|
|
