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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2020 23:29:36 GMT -6
Thanks Unclesam
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 20, 2020 23:30:06 GMT -6
Whats the mean on the gefs for here. Im on mobile. Looks like 2" in the metro |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 20, 2020 23:42:11 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 21, 2020 0:13:29 GMT -6
Euro and gem still in the southern camp
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 0:19:16 GMT -6
Ya your right the mean is just over an inch using the meteograms. The GEFS maps say 2” though. Odd |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 2:37:50 GMT -6
06z NAM just hit the jackpot
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 21, 2020 3:06:18 GMT -6
06z NAM just hit the jackpot Do tell. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2020 5:00:13 GMT -6
06z NAM just hit the jackpot Do tell. Shows an ideal track and 6-8 inches of snow in STL. 6z gfs is still crap |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2020 6:14:27 GMT -6
What did the euro ensembles shoe at 0z? Has the 6z Euro came out yet?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2020 6:48:02 GMT -6
What did the euro ensembles shoe at 0z? Has the 6z Euro came out yet? 6z euro has the storm, but certainly not at nam levels. A few hours of accumulating snow Thursday evening with a break before trying to pivot in a few more hours Friday. Shows a couple inches. If there is a big break or lull in precip intensity I would expect melting considering temps are around 33 |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2020 6:58:34 GMT -6
Yes the Euro has definitely trended weaker and less snow . 0z only had 1-2” with marginal temps
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 21, 2020 7:01:37 GMT -6
I'm not sure what everyone is looking at when temps are in the upper 30s each day?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 21, 2020 7:06:24 GMT -6
I'm not sure what everyone is looking at when temps are in the upper 30s each day? Because the upper level temps are cold enough or nearly so to support snow which could provide dynamic cooling down to the surface to 32-34. One of the coolest snows I've ever seen was at 34ish degrees. If it's worth anything, the RGEM looks good at the end of its run. |
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 21, 2020 7:48:49 GMT -6
I'm not sure what everyone is looking at when temps are in the upper 30s each day? Because the upper level temps are cold enough or nearly so to support snow which could provide dynamic cooling down to the surface to 32-34. One of the coolest snows I've ever seen was at 34ish degrees. If it's worth anything, the RGEM looks good at the end of its run. This has let down written all over it. A nuisance snow. 1-2 inches of slushy wet snow. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 21, 2020 7:51:10 GMT -6
This is gonna be a long week!! Already started yesterday afternoon/evening with chemicals applied to everything.
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Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Jan 21, 2020 7:53:20 GMT -6
Because the upper level temps are cold enough or nearly so to support snow which could provide dynamic cooling down to the surface to 32-34. One of the coolest snows I've ever seen was at 34ish degrees. If it's worth anything, the RGEM looks good at the end of its run. This has let down written all over it. A nuisance snow. 1-2 inches of slushy wet snow. But for people that plow snow we do not. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2020 7:58:52 GMT -6
Because the upper level temps are cold enough or nearly so to support snow which could provide dynamic cooling down to the surface to 32-34. One of the coolest snows I've ever seen was at 34ish degrees. If it's worth anything, the RGEM looks good at the end of its run. This has let down written all over it. A nuisance snow. 1-2 inches of slushy wet snow. I mean at this point, no one should be expecting more than 3" with the model disparity |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2020 8:24:13 GMT -6
NAM is going to be good again...
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 21, 2020 8:27:54 GMT -6
NAM is going to be good again... Solid hit of zr (maybe sleet) Wed night into Thurs with a bit of snow after, but there is no secondary development down south. It is focusing the energy on the upper low to our north. And that may be how we get screwed. EDIT: That IS how we get screwed. |
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2020 8:29:27 GMT -6
NAM is going to be good again... Solid hit of zr (maybe sleet) Wed night into Thurs with a bit of snow after, but there is no secondary development down south. It is focusing the energy on the upper low to our north. And that may be how we get screwed. Yep... Spoke too soon. It just doesn't come together. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2020 8:31:07 GMT -6
One run went straight to the northern camp . Oh well , hopefully we get a little something.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2020 8:36:44 GMT -6
Hi-res looks much better than the nam. Focus definitely needs to be on ZR tomorrow night. That will be a mess with snow falling on top afterwards.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 21, 2020 9:00:01 GMT -6
Solid hit of zr (maybe sleet) Wed night into Thurs with a bit of snow after, but there is no secondary development down south. It is focusing the energy on the upper low to our north. And that may be how we get screwed. Yep... Spoke too soon. It just doesn't come together. Toss it out. It's a bogus run. Probably convective feedback. Maybe the southern flank eating the snow. It's getting sheered out. It's moving too fast. The movement doesn't make sense. It's the NAM @ xx hours. What are the other excuses? |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 21, 2020 9:00:32 GMT -6
One thing we have going for us at the moment regarding the last few model runs.....depending on how you actually look at it.
Sounds like the Canadien has surpassed the GFS in skill and is implementing a large expansion/update today according to Ryan Maue. Anyone know anything about this or if it is in fact accurate.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 21, 2020 9:07:47 GMT -6
Wow, just looked at my forecast. Looks like a real headache for the Mets but I was surprised to see measurable snow forecasted like they have.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 21, 2020 9:09:50 GMT -6
There are a LOT of moving parts here...but if that upper low to our north takes dominance we will be looking at mainly another borderline zr event with the chance for a touch of snow at the end. Time of day though along with temps just a hair cooler would make it more high impact.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 21, 2020 9:12:52 GMT -6
RGEM has a solid hit of sleet/snow/zr moving in just after midnight tomorrow night with temps in the 29-31 range. That would be a mess.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 21, 2020 9:17:31 GMT -6
I'm not sure Mau is looking at. GFS skill is decisively better than GDPS in nearly all metrics from what I'm seeing.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2020 9:27:56 GMT -6
The ground is frozen solid as well, that will have a big impact when you have air temps in the 30-32 range along with frozen precipitation.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2020 9:29:50 GMT -6
He stated on Twitter that the Gem surpassed the GFS. The rankings were 1. Euro 2. Ukmet 3. Gem 4.Gfs
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