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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 21, 2020 12:53:40 GMT -6
Looks like another clipper possible Saturday afternoon as the tail end of the sheared vortmax swings thru
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 21, 2020 12:55:39 GMT -6
Sorry, I'm not well versed enough in soundings. Euro profile is snow... NAMs and GFS hava a layer above freezing- depending on how deep that layer gets it will either by ZR or sleet or mix. Surface temps 31-32 |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 21, 2020 13:00:49 GMT -6
TWC has STL in the 5-8” range through Friday with less to the south and east. Kiss of Death... We've been Cantored! |
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Post by dschreib on Jan 21, 2020 13:08:12 GMT -6
Sorry, I'm not well versed enough in soundings. Euro profile is snow... NAMs and GFS hava a layer above freezing- depending on how deep that layer gets it will either by ZR or sleet or mix. Surface temps 31-32 I'll take my chances with ~1C, though. Although rule #2 comes into play--never underestimate the warmth of the warm wedge. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2020 13:34:32 GMT -6
Now this is something we don't see around here. twitter.com/NWSMiamiThe embed thing isn't working for tweets for me. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 21, 2020 13:36:10 GMT -6
Anyone have the EPS precip charts?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 21, 2020 13:38:24 GMT -6
Cue stlfisherman...with the voice of Gene Kelly. 😂
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 14:03:33 GMT -6
Anyone have the EPS precip charts? Heres the snowfall mean
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 14:09:57 GMT -6
18z NAM sure is icy tomorrow night. Steady freezing rain with surface temps of 30-31
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 21, 2020 14:24:45 GMT -6
18z NAM sure is icy tomorrow night. Steady freezing rain with surface temps of 30-31 Temps not slowly rising? |
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 21, 2020 14:27:01 GMT -6
If you want something to drool over this afternoon... wow
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 14:27:12 GMT -6
18z NAM sure is icy tomorrow night. Steady freezing rain with surface temps of 30-31 Temps not slowly rising? Not really. They do get just above freezing Thursday afternoon but then we have snow falling |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 14:29:05 GMT -6
18z NAM looks much better with the 500mb vort. This should be a pretty good run for the area
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 21, 2020 14:42:39 GMT -6
18z nam develops a nice trowal as the low stacks up and deepens.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2020 14:43:42 GMT -6
The 18z NAM does look a lot better. Another 50 -75 mile southeast shift and it would Be perfect.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2020 14:57:01 GMT -6
18z HRRR looks good as well
longer range RAP run (15z) did too
Pretty solid consensus that this will be starting tomorrow evening. May even affect rush hour tomorrow on the way home.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 21, 2020 14:58:37 GMT -6
18z nam develops a nice trowal as the low stacks up and deepens. Yes. Just kind of blows up precip right on top of STL |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 21, 2020 15:13:19 GMT -6
18z ICON and RGEM trending nicely too.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 21, 2020 15:13:24 GMT -6
WWA just southwest of us for noon Wed. to noon Thurs.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 21, 2020 15:18:45 GMT -6
Us too
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 15:19:06 GMT -6
Advisory up from 6pm tomorrow to noon Thursday
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 21, 2020 15:19:25 GMT -6
6 pm to noon
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 21, 2020 15:23:51 GMT -6
pretty lame:
Deterministic models have come more in line with the GFS solution
which closes off the midlevel low quicker and further to the
northwest. However, given that this system has not reached the
Pacific coast yet, and given the complexities with it (eventual
track/strength), we still certainly could see some changes over the
next 24+ hours. The deterministic ECMWF remains the furthest south
with the track of the system at this time. While this solution is
not favored at this time, this type of solution would favor at least
a bit more snow (and less freezing rain/sleet).
At the surface, a weak area of low pressure is forecast to very
slowly progress from across the northern CWA midday Thursday into
eastern Illinois early Friday afternoon. Because of this track
further north, believe most areas will mix with and changeover to a
plain cold rain as temperatures rise into the mid/upper 30s on
Thursday. This rain will then mix with and changeover to light snow
Thursday night into Friday. Lingering light snow should finally exit
the CWA Friday night as the system moves into the eastern Ohio
Valley. In terms of additional accumulations, they may be tough to
come by (after Thursday morning) due to a wet ground, borderline
surface temperatures, and the light intensity of the snowfall. This
will be especially true during the daylight hours on
Thursday/Friday. A general dusting to as much as one inch or two of
snowfall appears possible during this time period, moreso focused up
in the north once again across parts of northeast Missouri and west-
central Illinois.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 21, 2020 15:33:05 GMT -6
NWS definitely taking the conservative route right now which is probably the way to go...this system has a lot of potential but also a high bust factor.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 21, 2020 15:42:59 GMT -6
Given the setup, I wouldn’t want to put anything down on paper.
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Post by Sparkman - Wildwood, Mo on Jan 21, 2020 15:48:30 GMT -6
NWS definitely taking the conservative route right now which is probably the way to go...this system has a lot of potential but also a high bust factor. Would think that the colder air in place for longer vs our previous icing event would at least argue for a more significant impact - NWS seems to say no. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 21, 2020 15:49:37 GMT -6
NWS definitely taking the conservative route right now which is probably the way to go...this system has a lot of potential but also a high bust factor. So if this thing blows up (bigger than planned) an Advisory is already in place, so beefing up the wordking is an easy add, vs. not having anything at all. I guess. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 15:53:55 GMT -6
18z GFS takes the 500 vort south of the metro now to
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 21, 2020 15:54:59 GMT -6
NWS definitely taking the conservative route right now which is probably the way to go...this system has a lot of potential but also a high bust factor. So if this thing blows up (bigger than planned) an Advisory is already in place, so beefing up the wordking is an easy add, vs. not having anything at all. I guess. Exactly my thoughts...
Advisory in place with disco of mainly cold rain with a possible dusting by Friday.  |
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 21, 2020 15:55:15 GMT -6
Now this is something we don't see around here. twitter.com/NWSMiamiThe embed thing isn't working for tweets for me. A chance of falling iguanas tonight in Florida tonight. Yeah, I'd say that'd be unlikely around here. |
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