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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 20:37:25 GMT -6
Thats a very positive NAM run. This is a pretty complex system but the NAM would put us in a great spot for heavy wet snow
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 21, 2020 20:37:54 GMT -6
Hi-Res NAM looks better however and after 3-6 hours of initial freezing rain we kick over to snow and stay snow for the reminder of the event with a more favorable track of the QPF area.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 21, 2020 20:38:38 GMT -6
Shouldn't the models be getting a full sampling of this thing more or less this run? Probably just partial...still quite a bit of energy on the backside still just off-shore.  Look at that pac moisture.... yummy |
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 21, 2020 20:38:41 GMT -6
If the upper dynamics of the NAM are correct- this certainly has warning potential for the metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 20:40:03 GMT -6
Hi res NAM is much snowier after an initial hit of ice
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Post by jmg378s on Jan 21, 2020 20:40:27 GMT -6
You can say that again Coz.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 21, 2020 20:54:41 GMT -6
This is purdy.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 21, 2020 22:03:33 GMT -6
I see the gfs has continued to temper expectations...
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2020 22:09:03 GMT -6
I takes one step forward one run then takes two steps back the next
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 21, 2020 22:14:14 GMT -6
Looking on the horizon for a moment, middle of next week looks interesting
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 22:17:12 GMT -6
I see the gfs has continued to temper expectations... The operational runs are trash with regards to p-types. Big picture wise it looks good |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 21, 2020 22:23:02 GMT -6
Gem looks pretty good. Another 50 mile shift south east and it would be perfect
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 21, 2020 22:42:04 GMT -6
The GEM is a gem
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220 
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 21, 2020 22:43:36 GMT -6
With everyone in this room ooooing and ahhhhing you would think we would have a winter storm warning. How much snow are we getting?
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Post by cozpregon on Jan 21, 2020 22:48:24 GMT -6
GEM would support warning potential snow- that’s on this evening’s runs. Who knows what tomorrow brings.
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 21, 2020 22:52:56 GMT -6
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 21, 2020 23:03:26 GMT -6
Hello from the great cold northlands...
This is really a very strange pattern. There are a series of disturbances firing through a broader trough that is getting deeper... but having trouble focusing the energy into a single weather syste.. It is like a spinning top that has been disturbed...it wobbles somewhat chaotically.
I think precip Wed night is a sloppy mess of snow and rain... maybe some ZR for a time...but with such marginal temps it (zr) doesnt seem to be a big factor. If we get any accumulation Wed night... Id keep it under 1 inch.
The rest of this pattern has a look of early Spring cutoff season...but not terribly well organized. It seems that there may be a few small lucky spots mixed in much larger region of light snow/mix. Could be some decent numbers in spots... but looks a bit chaotic to me.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 21, 2020 23:25:23 GMT -6
Ukie looks really good. Hits the area with a nice TROWAL
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Post by unclesam6 on Jan 22, 2020 0:36:15 GMT -6
EURO is a hunky David Hasselhoff.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 22, 2020 1:00:21 GMT -6
EURO is a hunky David Hasselhoff. Haha! |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 22, 2020 3:18:00 GMT -6
A quick look at things.
I think 1" or less for the immediate metro.
But 6" for Valley Park
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2020 6:09:54 GMT -6
Hello from the great cold northlands... This is really a very strange pattern. There are a series of disturbances firing through a broader trough that is getting deeper... but having trouble focusing the energy into a single weather syste.. It is like a spinning top that has been disturbed...it wobbles somewhat chaotically. I think precip Wed night is a sloppy mess of snow and rain... maybe some ZR for a time...but with such marginal temps it (zr) doesnt seem to be a big factor. If we get any accumulation Wed night... Id keep it under 1 inch. The rest of this pattern has a look of early Spring cutoff season...but not terribly well organized. It seems that there may be a few small lucky spots mixed in much larger region of light snow/mix. Could be some decent numbers in spots... but looks a bit chaotic to me. Yeah, the snow field left behind from this storm could be pretty splotchy with spots getting warning criteria snowfall(6"+) but most seeing 1-3". |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 22, 2020 7:06:18 GMT -6
Some models are backing off of the intensity of precip tonight..this would mean less chance of dynamic cooling and thus a "meh" situation.
Good news is that it's snowing in western Arkansas.
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giarC71
Wishcaster
Posts: 220
Snowfall Events: Blizzard of'82 I became addicted to weather
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Post by giarC71 on Jan 22, 2020 7:14:43 GMT -6
Taking your heart of out the forecast. This will be a nuisance storm.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 22, 2020 7:15:09 GMT -6
EURO is a hunky David Hasselhoff. That needs to hit your next on-air forecast. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 22, 2020 7:48:15 GMT -6
Taking your heart of out the forecast. This will be a nuisance storm. If you believe the far N/warm GFS outlier...yes. |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 22, 2020 7:50:45 GMT -6
Considering the fact that the precip has already begun in Kansas City, I’d be inclined to think we’ll see it here in Franklin County by 4PM. I run our aftercare program at our school. I’ve already encouraged my parents to have a backup plan to get their kids by 4:30. Have to play it safe.
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Post by dschreib on Jan 22, 2020 7:54:50 GMT -6
Taking your heart of out the forecast. This will be a nuisance storm. How many inches of snow and/or sleet (and/or possibly freezing rain) is a nuisance storm, so the rest of us know what you mean? |
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 22, 2020 7:56:20 GMT -6
Just a few flakes.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 22, 2020 8:06:50 GMT -6
Taking your heart of out the forecast. This will be a nuisance storm. We know what you have said like 5 times now. Most of us can read. |
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