csafozzie
Wishcaster
Wildwood, MO. Jefferson, Franklin and St Louis County borders
Posts: 139
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Post by csafozzie on Mar 17, 2020 20:53:23 GMT -6
We are off until April 4th in Parkway though the rumor is we probably have ended the school year at this point unless something changes. Luckily we will get paid through the rest of the year so we are not financially strapped as the rest of the people who are missing work because of this. I also work at a day care after school teaching STEM to pre-schoolers. They have opted to stay open so I am around 90-100 toddlers every day, along with the staff there. No social distancing with kids.  So if I get sick it will be from there. The bad thing is my wife works there as well so kind of double jeopardy. And the owner has already said we will stay open until they force them to shut. So we will see what happens. We use a lot of wipes and bleach water, plus hand washing after everything we do. But it would only take one sick kid or parent to bring the whole thing down. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 17, 2020 22:57:46 GMT -6
I haven’t looked at the severe threat around here Thursday with everything going on, but NAM has a huge swath of high sig tors Thursday evening  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 17, 2020 23:06:17 GMT -6
Morning convection and lack of any strong forcing mechanism look to hinder the threat Thursday. But with a sounding/hodograph like this its nothing to dismiss either  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 18, 2020 4:13:36 GMT -6
I actually like the SPC split in the SLGT risk... the shear is likely to knock down upright convection in the afternoon under the jet core...but over southeast MO... it looks more favorable.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 18, 2020 9:31:59 GMT -6
NAM and hi res NAM want to get convection going across the metro Thursday afternoon and evening. Be interesting to see if that trend holds
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 18, 2020 10:25:18 GMT -6
The talk around maryville university per my student kid is that the fine arts classes such as film making, photography, and other similar productions curriculum may end the semester. It is unknown on how the credit for class will come out. Most likely scenario, is students would receive an Incomplete and just take the classes over in future semesters. However her friend who is majoring in cyber security will continue as usual tele-learning through end of semester.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 18, 2020 10:29:56 GMT -6
Perryvillains need to be on the lookout tomorrow for sure.
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Post by dschreib on Mar 18, 2020 10:34:22 GMT -6
The talk around maryville university per my student kid is that the fine arts classes such as film making, photography, and other similar productions curriculum may end the semester. It is unknown on how the credit for class will come out. Most likely scenario, is students would receive an Incomplete and just take the classes over in future semesters. However her friend who is majoring in cyber security will continue as usual tele-learning through end of semester. That's a minor problem for the dschreib household if this carries over to everything. I have two seniors--HS and college. Both are (were) currently fulfilling requirements for graduation--a civics/govt class for the HS kid and student teaching for the college kid (who has also already been offered a job for the next school year). In the equally likely scenario that this goes all to hell, I'd like to know what educators are saying about waiving those requirements. I'm as calm, cool, and collected as they come. I'm not one to get ahead of myself. I'm just looking to be able to offer some words of reassurance to the rest of the family.
Edit: Not to mention the fact that one would have shared valedictorian and the other worked her a** off to go through college with a 4.0, and it's possible neither will walk. Relatively minor, in the scheme of things, but still pretty "sucky".
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 18, 2020 10:43:33 GMT -6
The talk around maryville university per my student kid is that the fine arts classes such as film making, photography, and other similar productions curriculum may end the semester. It is unknown on how the credit for class will come out. Most likely scenario, is students would receive an Incomplete and just take the classes over in future semesters. However her friend who is majoring in cyber security will continue as usual tele-learning through end of semester. That's a minor problem for the dschreib household if this carries over to everything. I have two seniors--HS and college. Both are (were) currently fulfilling requirements for graduation--a civics/govt class for the HS kid and student teaching for the college kid (who has also already been offered a job for the next school year). In the equally likely scenario that this goes all to hell, I'd like to know what educators are saying about waiving those requirements. I'm as calm, cool, and collected as they come. I'm not one to get ahead of myself. I'm just looking to be able to offer some words of reassurance to the rest of the family.
Edit: Not to mention the fact that one would have shared valedictorian and the other worked her a** off to go through college with a 4.0, and it's possible neither will walk. Relatively minor, in the scheme of things, but still pretty "sucky".
Yeah being a senior wld be higher impact.my daughter is sophomore so the impact is lower, just means she goes a little longer. That student teaching experience was valuable for my wife. I wld guess though DESE wld hv to waive that reqt. I hope in the end, all the regulators are practical in realizing what is truly important in determining what can be waived vs what has to be made up. |
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Post by dschreib on Mar 18, 2020 10:52:59 GMT -6
That's a minor problem for the dschreib household if this carries over to everything. I have two seniors--HS and college. Both are (were) currently fulfilling requirements for graduation--a civics/govt class for the HS kid and student teaching for the college kid (who has also already been offered a job for the next school year). In the equally likely scenario that this goes all to hell, I'd like to know what educators are saying about waiving those requirements. I'm as calm, cool, and collected as they come. I'm not one to get ahead of myself. I'm just looking to be able to offer some words of reassurance to the rest of the family.
Edit: Not to mention the fact that one would have shared valedictorian and the other worked her a** off to go through college with a 4.0, and it's possible neither will walk. Relatively minor, in the scheme of things, but still pretty "sucky".
Yeah being a senior wld be higher impact.my daughter is sophomore so the impact is lower, just means she goes a little longer. That student teaching experience was valuable for my wife. I wld guess though DESE wld hv to waive that reqt. I hope in the end, all the regulators are practical in realizing what is truly important in determining what can be waived vs what has to be made up. They start them early at SEMO, so she's been teaching in the classroom for several semesters already, plus she's subbed several times. She did just take over all classes this week, though. I have no concerns about her ability/comfort level with the kids--just the red tape. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 18, 2020 11:01:59 GMT -6
NAM and hi res NAM want to get convection going across the metro Thursday afternoon and evening. Be interesting to see if that trend holds Looks like a good setup for convection to fire in the dry slot but the timing looks like possibly after peak destabilization and the ripping mid-level winds could topple updrafts like Chris said with 500mb winds nearing 100kts. |
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 18, 2020 11:46:55 GMT -6
Slight risk everyone now enhanced just east of metro
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Mar 18, 2020 11:54:01 GMT -6
Sun just poked out and temp jumped up to 64
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 18, 2020 11:57:40 GMT -6
Slight risk everyone now enhanced just east of metro Heightened tornado and wind risk for the SE half of the area  |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 18, 2020 12:15:10 GMT -6
Some pretty gnarly hodographs showing up on many of the models across SE MO and S IL. Many with 1km SRH in the 200-400 m2/s2 range. But they also have an awful lot of residual cloud cover too. If we get do get some destabilization though...watch out.
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Post by ajd446 on Mar 18, 2020 12:18:06 GMT -6
I have a feeling the southeast 2/3 of the area is in the danger zone tomorrow. Seems like it keeps.creeping nw with time with the higher risk
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 18, 2020 12:19:50 GMT -6
Some pretty gnarly hodographs showing up on many of the models across SE MO and S IL. Many with 1km SRH in the 200-400 m2/s2 range. But they also have an awful lot of residual cloud cover too. If we get do get some destabilization though...watch out. This mornings hi res NAM had some wicked hodograohs as far north as the metro tomorrow |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 18, 2020 12:22:25 GMT -6
And in coronavirus news Italy is reporting 2978 deaths out of 35713 cases today. It appears probable they will surpass China's fatalities tomorrow but with just less than half the cases. Obviously many many infections going undetected there, but still.
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Post by maddogchief on Mar 18, 2020 13:04:05 GMT -6
The talk around maryville university per my student kid is that the fine arts classes such as film making, photography, and other similar productions curriculum may end the semester. It is unknown on how the credit for class will come out. Most likely scenario, is students would receive an Incomplete and just take the classes over in future semesters. However her friend who is majoring in cyber security will continue as usual tele-learning through end of semester. That's a minor problem for the dschreib household if this carries over to everything. I have two seniors--HS and college. Both are (were) currently fulfilling requirements for graduation--a civics/govt class for the HS kid and student teaching for the college kid (who has also already been offered a job for the next school year). In the equally likely scenario that this goes all to hell, I'd like to know what educators are saying about waiving those requirements. I'm as calm, cool, and collected as they come. I'm not one to get ahead of myself. I'm just looking to be able to offer some words of reassurance to the rest of the family.
Edit: Not to mention the fact that one would have shared valedictorian and the other worked her a** off to go through college with a 4.0, and it's possible neither will walk. Relatively minor, in the scheme of things, but still pretty "sucky".
My assumption would be that since education and licensing requirements are both state/federal checked box type things that I imagine there will be legislation dealing with these requirements. Controls, education requirements, licensing, and testing are all requirements that are government made. Because of that things like minimum requirements for graduation or education or intern requirements for licensing can and will probably see some sort of waiver or other means for all or part of said requirements. But, all of that is part of the cleanup process as opposed to the prepare/mitigation process of which we are currently engaged. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 18, 2020 13:27:31 GMT -6
Slight risk for northern half of the area with enhanced risk for southern half.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 18, 2020 13:45:23 GMT -6
Well if that severe outlook goes any further to the Nw, then i may need to commute to the office tomorrow and not deal with isp service outages.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 18, 2020 14:42:09 GMT -6
Some pretty gnarly hodographs showing up on many of the models across SE MO and S IL. Many with 1km SRH in the 200-400 m2/s2 range. But they also have an awful lot of residual cloud cover too. If we get do get some destabilization though...watch out. Seems like sort of a conditional risk but it's definitely there... |
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 18, 2020 15:04:13 GMT -6
First COVID-19 Death in Missouri - Boone County, Columbia area. Person in their 60s.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 18, 2020 15:10:56 GMT -6
My initial thought is the enhanced risk is a little too far northwest. I think it will be closer to Kaskaskia River in Illinois.
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Mar 18, 2020 17:04:40 GMT -6
What the time these storms to be expected?
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Mar 18, 2020 17:12:44 GMT -6
On this day, 1925...it was a bad day.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 18, 2020 20:02:27 GMT -6
Two tornado warnings right in the middle of the enhanced risk. SPC got that one right  |
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Post by perryville on Mar 18, 2020 20:09:05 GMT -6
Perryvillains need to be on the lookout tomorrow for sure. Thanks for the heads up!! Definitely felt nice today. |
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Post by bdgwx on Mar 18, 2020 20:09:45 GMT -6
Models are showing a pretty volatile atmospheric configuration tomorrow. I'm questioning where and whether storms will initiate though.
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 18, 2020 20:19:13 GMT -6
A bit capped here late afternoon/evening
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So if I get sick it will be from there. The bad thing is my wife works there as well so kind of double jeopardy. And the owner has already said we will stay open until they force them to shut. So we will see what happens. We use a lot of wipes and bleach water, plus hand washing after everything we do. But it would only take one sick kid or parent to bring the whole thing down. 
