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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 27, 2020 8:19:36 GMT -6
5% tor risk for most of the area tomorrow  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 27, 2020 9:44:51 GMT -6
5% tor risk for most of the area tomorrow Move that 5% area into the Arklatex and make guacamole! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 27, 2020 9:47:15 GMT -6
Looking at soundings...any discrete, rotating storms that can turn right of the mean flow will have a tornado threat...that 5% area seems well placed closer to the SLP track.
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Post by mosue56 on Apr 27, 2020 11:35:54 GMT -6
Glad I didn’t wait on the rain! I mowed the front and side lawn!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Apr 27, 2020 12:06:44 GMT -6
Latest outlook pulled the 5% tornado risk back to the west   |
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Post by REB on Apr 27, 2020 12:23:02 GMT -6
Glad I didn’t wait on the rain! I mowed the front and side lawn! We hurried up and mowed this morning too. Got it done. No rain here. |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 27, 2020 15:11:10 GMT -6
Wednesday as the cold core comes overhead... there is some skinny CAPE thru up thru the -10* to -20* temps aloft- may see those showery small hailers.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 27, 2020 15:27:29 GMT -6
Yeah looks like a squall line Tuesday Evening, then Pop corn t-showers Wednesday afternoon with small to marginally severe hail depending if we can get any sun peaks Wednesday then it looks like another light steady rain Wednesday evening into the overnight with clouds lingering until around midday Thursday with patchy drizzle during AM hours before skies clear and the upper level low pulls away. Temps look to rocket on Friday though depending on how things play out and I could see mid 80s maybe even 90 especially west of St. Louis before storms return during the weekend.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Apr 27, 2020 15:33:12 GMT -6
As for "blackberry Winter" Me thinks it will hit with a vengeance between the 6th into the 12 with some very cold air for May standards with a lull in severe action until mid month before warmth surges back with storms returning in spectacular fashion after the 15th into early June. That might end up being our peak season for severe storms if everything plays out to the pattern the way it's been playing out.
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Post by Snowman99 on Apr 27, 2020 17:21:00 GMT -6
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Post by yypc on Apr 27, 2020 17:40:04 GMT -6
I still think Jarrell was #1. Having F5 winds sit in top of you for 5-10 mins and essentially sandblast you into oblivion is basically unsurvivable. The fact that the 2011 super outbreak has 2 of the top 3 shows how insane that day was. |
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 27, 2020 19:15:33 GMT -6
That was an interesting blog and a good read. Jarrell has always been my #1 as well. I get it that some of the super outbreak I & II tornadoes were quick moving and didn't have an opportunity to produce that type of damage but just seeing destruction so complete that debris is too granulated or isn't even there to be seen in pictures is insane. Damage not withstanding it's a very fascinating case study anyway.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Apr 28, 2020 0:27:20 GMT -6
Jarrell still amazed me because it was the first time I had heard of road pavement being scoured off the earth's surface and thrown.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 28, 2020 4:53:06 GMT -6
Wow... a moderate risk is out.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 28, 2020 5:58:45 GMT -6
Wow... a moderate risk is out. Mostly hail and wind threat there. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 28, 2020 6:02:15 GMT -6
Wow... a moderate risk is out. Mostly hail and wind threat there. I read that after I looked at the Tornado probs... thought the shape was weird. I wonder how far east this will shift given that the timing has moved right a few hours (later in the day now compared to yesterdays thoughts). My guess is that the main tornado threat stays to our northwest today. |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 28, 2020 6:44:26 GMT -6
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 28, 2020 6:58:56 GMT -6
Should be a heck of a squall potential this evening.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Apr 28, 2020 7:54:17 GMT -6
Awfully quiet in here today.
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Post by scmhack on Apr 28, 2020 8:06:34 GMT -6
Awfully quiet in here today. Yeah i was expecting more chatter before a nice quality storm system while i'm bored at work instead of working from home like many. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 28, 2020 8:27:33 GMT -6
It will pick up later when things start coming together out west
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Post by scmhack on Apr 28, 2020 8:34:43 GMT -6
It will pick up later when things start coming together out west but damnit I work the early shift. if this were snow it'd be packed with disappointment at least. *pouts in loving severe weather* |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Apr 28, 2020 8:42:09 GMT -6
Should be a heck of a squall potential this evening. This does seem like a good setup for a linear mode to develop rather quickly. |
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Post by jmg378s on Apr 28, 2020 8:45:15 GMT -6
It will pick up later when things start coming together out west IF it comes together and IF it maintains intensity this far southeast. I've been finding it tedious in recent years digging into the details of all these underperforming setups in IMBY. Now that I've said that watch us get a bunch of significant severe reports rolling right into the metro area...  |
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Post by weatherj on Apr 28, 2020 8:46:54 GMT -6
A snippet from this morning disco:
The main concern in the short term continues to be the severe weather chances across the region this afternoon through this evening. HREF probabilities of surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg remain well over 90 percent between 18z and 00z Wednesday, especially for portions of central/northeast MO and west central IL, with bulk shear between 30 and 35 kts. However, several of the deterministic models have the associated surface low a bit further north with the 00z run, so could see our area between the stronger dynamics to our north and better instabilities to our south. For now will keep similar timing with pre-frontal discrete cells developing by 21z, then activity will evolve into more linear convection through the evening as front slides south across forecast area, exiting by 04z Wednesday. Main threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes possible with pre-frontal supercells.
Have we seen that before?? 🤔
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Apr 28, 2020 8:52:54 GMT -6
It will pick up later when things start coming together out west IF it comes together and IF it maintains intensity this far southeast. I've been finding it tedious in recent years digging into the details of all these underperforming setups in IMBY. Now that I've said that watch us get a bunch of significant severe reports rolling right into the metro area... [ Same here. |
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Post by cozpregon on Apr 28, 2020 9:00:06 GMT -6
Watch those Tds this afternoon... if we can get the mid 60s like the models suggest- I think severe threat will certainly be there. I was actually thinking they may need to pull the enhanced area a bit further north with the morning update.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 28, 2020 9:08:55 GMT -6
One thing about this set up that I find curious and may play a factor is that the shear values are not off the charts. That may play more in the favor of storms because updrafts will not be getting torn apart... As it stands right now it looks to me like there is a healthy balance between the bulk sheer and the degree of instability.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 28, 2020 9:15:30 GMT -6
Along those same lines, the 500 millibar winds top off "only" near 50 knots maybe a little more and in the presence of what should be moderate instability that's a pretty potent combination. Unlike some early season events where strong 500 millibar flow can rip a storm apart before it can organize... It looks to me like we will have a good balance between mid level flow and the degree of instability especially since we will have significant sun through at least early this afternoon.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Apr 28, 2020 9:16:33 GMT -6
The rpm is actually showing a couple of loop type signatures running along and South of inter state 70... With embedded supercell structures.
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