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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 19, 2020 13:22:08 GMT -6
Convective allowing models I believe.
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 19, 2020 14:12:48 GMT -6
9" report just north of downtown DSM Impressive...reminds me of that time several years ago when a mesoscale band setup over Brighton and BRTN got like 10" of snow while the rest of got practically squat. |
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Post by jmg378s on Oct 19, 2020 14:41:57 GMT -6
I rarely put much weight in the short-range CAMS during the cold months for that reason...if the setup favors mesoscale banding, the RGEM or NAM usually does pretty well...and at times, the EURO does too. What are the short-range CAMS? What does CAMS stand for? 99 already said what it stands for. The difference from non convective allowing models is that they solve the equations of atmospheric motion in all three dimensions whereas non-CAMs generally just solve horizontal motion and then calculate vertical motion after the fact with parameterizations. Most of the global models and some regional models with resolution above 9km (GFS,UKMET,ECMWF,GEM,NAM,RAP) are non- convective allowing. Regional and mesoscale models with resolution below 4km are often convective allowing (NAM3k, HRRR, and other WRF/ARW-based models). CAMS explicitly resolve updrafts and downdrafts and produce realistic thunderstorms whereas non-CAMs just produce precipitation blobs. CAMs are typically short range because the extra equations and resolution magnifies tiny errors more quickly whereas error doesn't grow quite as rapidly in non-CAMs so they can be extended to medium and long range with more confidence. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 14:59:53 GMT -6
What are the short-range CAMS? What does CAMS stand for? 99 already said what it stands for. The difference from non convective allowing models is that they solve the equations of atmospheric motion in all three dimensions whereas non-CAMs generally just solve horizontal motion and then calculate vertical motion after the fact with parameterizations. Most of the global models and some regional models with resolution above 9km (GFS,UKMET,ECMWF,GEM,NAM,RAP) are non- convective allowing. Regional and mesoscale models with resolution below 4km are often convective allowing (NAM3k, HRRR, and other WRF/ARW-based models). CAMS explicitly resolve updrafts and downdrafts and produce realistic thunderstorms whereas non-CAMs just produce precipitation blobs. CAMs are typically short range because the extra equations and resolution magnifies tiny errors more quickly whereas error doesn't grow quite as rapidly in non-CAMs so they can be extended to medium and long range with more confidence. this is the answer we needed. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 19, 2020 15:23:44 GMT -6
What are the short-range CAMS? What does CAMS stand for? 99 already said what it stands for. The difference from non convective allowing models is that they solve the equations of atmospheric motion in all three dimensions whereas non-CAMs generally just solve horizontal motion and then calculate vertical motion after the fact with parameterizations. Most of the global models and some regional models with resolution above 9km (GFS,UKMET,ECMWF,GEM,NAM,RAP) are non- convective allowing. Regional and mesoscale models with resolution below 4km are often convective allowing (NAM3k, HRRR, and other WRF/ARW-based models). CAMS explicitly resolve updrafts and downdrafts and produce realistic thunderstorms whereas non-CAMs just produce precipitation blobs. CAMs are typically short range because the extra equations and resolution magnifies tiny errors more quickly whereas error doesn't grow quite as rapidly in non-CAMs so they can be extended to medium and long range with more confidence. What he said |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Oct 19, 2020 20:38:33 GMT -6
Looks like its a instant replay of last night tomorrow evening/night with yet another band of rain forming this time right along I-44 into I-70 in Illinois or just to the south of it. Think about a county or 2 farther south then last night, but similar thing, some moderate to heavy rain in a narrow 1-2 county wide band about 40-60 miles maybe even less than that where 1-2" of rain could fall with only a quarter inch or less outside of that band. Might be more thunder with it too looks like the models are picking up on some instability, but nothing to exciting.
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 22:23:32 GMT -6
GFS is historic over central MO... plenty of time for that to absolutely not verify.
wow.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 19, 2020 22:30:08 GMT -6
Wow 00z Gfs next week. Central Mo though. Lol
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 19, 2020 22:30:24 GMT -6
GFS is historic over central MO... plenty of time for that to absolutely not verify. wow. U beat me to it! Haha |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Oct 19, 2020 22:30:43 GMT -6
GFS is historic over central MO... plenty of time for that to absolutely not verify. wow. No kidding. Already printing out double digits lol. |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 19, 2020 22:35:12 GMT -6
And of course I'm at the Ozarks camping.
So....
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 19, 2020 22:48:40 GMT -6
night and day difference with the GEM
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Oct 19, 2020 23:31:33 GMT -6
night and day difference with the GEM Is it showing the artic air behind the front though? Like the Gfs? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 20, 2020 1:10:49 GMT -6
Euro has some similarities to the GFS. Flakes before Halloween would be wild
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Post by STGOutdoors on Oct 20, 2020 6:28:44 GMT -6
It definitely feels strange hoping for the possibility of accumulating snow on October 27th and it is likely still a pipe dream, but you have to at least consider it given the Euro's support and the GFS's consistency. Either way, if the cold makes it down we would be looking at record low opportunities as well. It's not like we are in 10 day fantasy range anymore, this is within 6 days at this point.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2020 6:36:42 GMT -6
Thanks snowman99 and jmg378s for your answers! Jmg478, you are so knowledgeable. Is this a hobby for you or did you get a PhD or masters? You would excel if you still decided to do that/get a job related to model computing.
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 20, 2020 8:15:31 GMT -6
0Z EPS and 0Z GEFS 500mb and 850mb structures are very similar through 168 hours. The pattern, should it verify, it is supportive of periods of unsettled weather possibly in the form of multiple rounds. Frozen stuff...meh...it's possible, but the GEFS and EPS suggest that it isn't a high probability call here in the metro area at the moment. Maybe that'll change. We'll see.
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 20, 2020 8:58:00 GMT -6
Can you guys tell me please when the models are saying that cold is coming? Wasn’t early November supposed to be warmer? Just trying to plan winterizing and need some idea! Thanks!
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Post by mosue56 on Oct 20, 2020 8:58:12 GMT -6
Can you guys tell me please when the models are saying that cold is coming? Wasn’t early November supposed to be warmer? Just trying to plan winterizing and need some idea! Thanks!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 20, 2020 9:27:03 GMT -6
0Z EPS and 0Z GEFS 500mb and 850mb structures are very similar through 168 hours. The pattern, should it verify, it is supportive of periods of unsettled weather possibly in the form of multiple rounds. Frozen stuff...meh...it's possible, but the GEFS and EPS suggest that it isn't a high probability call here in the metro area at the moment. Maybe that'll change. We'll see. It's about the most supportive pattern for early flakes I've ever seen...incredible setup for late October. There's potential for legit accumulating snowfall across the Bi-state if models verify. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Oct 20, 2020 9:57:23 GMT -6
This is some pattern were in for October. Yesterday was that intense mesoscale band of snow across Iowa and today Minneapolis might see warning levels of snow accumulation
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 20, 2020 10:10:47 GMT -6
This is some pattern were in for October. Yesterday was that intense mesoscale band of snow across Iowa and today Minneapolis might see warning levels of snow accumulation When the arctic branch and vortex become players in October...it makes you say "hmmmmm" for sure. I still hold by my gut feeling that this winter is going to be a doozy. Current trends only re-enforce that thinking... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Oct 20, 2020 10:11:10 GMT -6
I can't wait to get 2 to 6 inches next week. Book it.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2020 10:14:29 GMT -6
Still early I know! But, this storm early next week IMO is looking more and more like a KC to Kirksville to Chicago storm. Potentially even further north. Either way it's going to be a tight gradient of where the rain/snow line sets up and I would love to see that gradient shift further SE into our neck of woods. If the models continue to show potential of wintery precip on Thursday, I'd call this a storm of interest.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Oct 20, 2020 10:32:02 GMT -6
Thundering at my house
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Post by unclesam6 on Oct 20, 2020 10:35:27 GMT -6
12z gfs reminds of the stuff that came through early in September. Upper low cuts off too early and loses a deep cold connection.
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Post by ndolan387 on Oct 20, 2020 10:36:29 GMT -6
Btrnwxman, I think you are going to get your wish of more rain by your neck of the woods today
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 20, 2020 10:41:35 GMT -6
Btrnwxman, I think you are going to get your wish of more rain by your neck of the woods today Pretty good area of thundershowers moving in...but far from the soaking rain that areas S of 44 got |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Oct 20, 2020 10:43:27 GMT -6
12z gfs reminds of the stuff that came through early in September. Upper low cuts off too early and loses a deep cold connection. That's what the GEM was showing...certainly a plausible outcome among many. |
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Post by bdgwx on Oct 20, 2020 11:03:20 GMT -6
Pea sized hail here in the Harvester/St. Peters area.
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