Chris's Corner - The Fresh Smell of Fall and a New Thread

Unfortunately it looks like things are trending toward a cut-off situation for early next week. We are facing pretty astronomical odds for winter precip before Halloween, but some of those model solutions sure can get you excited. Either way I don't think anyone will be complaining about lack of rain by the middle of next week.

pretty big differences WRT upper low strength with the EURO vs the GFS as they crash onshore the pacnw.

Euro quite a bit stronger thru hr120


and now has the look of a cutoff.

Cutoff lows have been the trend for awhile now unfortunately

I'd take that pattern all winter long, lol.

ton of moisture next week. We're just on the warm side for most of it in that scheme.

Unless the core of cold airmass shifts to the other side of the pole(which is possible), I don't think availability of cold air will be an issue all winter...it's just about timing.

Thundersnow being reported in MSP

Glenn said in his weather segment the weather coming up for the area "Thunder doesn't always happen when it's raining"

Shaping up to be a wet night along 44

that's what I'm thinking too.  II think it a bit unrealistic to expect a pattern in October for anything further south.  I

I'm sad that next week is wet because I was supposed to get my roof replaced.  My routine periodic inspection indicated significant hail damage.  In fact, where the hail hit, the granules left the paper exposed.  I'm thinking if I don't get it replaced, then after next summer, I start to see dry rot issues with the roof paper, and leaks then could develop.   Using March 27 of this year as the date for the hail damage.  I don't believe I was home, or I would have storm spotted it. Safeco said, "yeah, that roof is smoked".  Getting all new gutters too.  They offered to inspect my deck, but I had already power washed it.  They asked me if I saw pock marks, but I said that I power wash it and stain it as ongoing maintenance anyway as ongoing maintenance.  I probably could have gotten a couple hundred more on that because I know I had pock marks, but my main concern is not having my roof leak and I'm perfectly fine with periodic maintenance of my deck.  I do it anyway.  Insurance company said the front gutters were damaged, but the roofer said he was just going to replace them all.  I know my ex-wife in warrenton texted me pics of the warrenton hail, it was approaching softball size.  I don't report hail damage unless I personally witness it, but both her and my son in Foristell replaced their roofs already.  My son had a big hailstorm a week after getting his roof damaged.  I hope I can get some decent warm weather to give the new roof a chance to seal before the annual blizzards hit. lol.  I'm sure we will get a few warm dry days, but now that I know the extent of the damage, I am ready for a roof.   I might get me a drone.   I have been known to sit in my backyard with a pair of binoculars, and I've called people out to fix flashings that have come loose in the past, but who knows what I can't see.  Just wish I could have had a big enough hailstorm to damage my siding.  I know I need new siding.  That hardboard is crap. That'll be on my dime in a few years.

00z GFS is a smorgasbord bruiser for early next week over the middle part of the country!

Yikes, it falls apart after hr 174...sheesh

I understand that the cold air connection was lost, but why did the storm peter out and shunt eastward south of us eliminating any rain from it for us...I hope this is not a winter preview.

Interesting pattern of rain tonight. Tropical downpours complete with lightning followed by a break of quiet and then another deluge. Even had a lightning hit somewhere not too far away hiccup the power enough to make my UPS's beep once.