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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2020 9:55:55 GMT -6
So is it looking like a no go today for Iron County??? You have a better chance than me, but it’ll be tight. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 13, 2020 9:57:24 GMT -6
At least the temperature feels/will feel like Dec this week!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2020 9:58:42 GMT -6
Creeping towards Christmas being in model fantasyland.
Certainly looks to be stormy that week in the Midwest as things stand now.
Hopefully, we can get some cold air in play.
Pretty much the next thing to watch considering this week is a dud.
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Post by snowday_lover on Dec 13, 2020 9:59:45 GMT -6
So is it looking like a no go today for Iron County??? You have a better chance than me, but it’ll be tight. Thanks for the info. Keeping my fingers crossed! |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2020 10:00:51 GMT -6
East coast weenies can’t like that GFS run
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Post by mchafin on Dec 13, 2020 10:02:27 GMT -6
Yes chances of snow are gone. Im guessing we wait another 5 to 7 weeks Gone? As in gone gone? One thing I was thinking about last night but got too tired to post was this: How often do we get a decent snow from something we see on the models 1-2 weeks out? Haven't our most interesting systems be those that kinda show up not weeks ahead of fruition but rather days? Yes, it's discouraging seeing Lucy show us a football 1-2 weeks out only to watch it be pulled away, but it's really not those that turn into something, usually. Am I right here or just kinda reaching? |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Dec 13, 2020 10:07:08 GMT -6
Mr. Cautiously Optimistic has spoken.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 13, 2020 10:10:38 GMT -6
Yes chances of snow are gone. Im guessing we wait another 5 to 7 weeks Gone? As in gone gone? One thing I was thinking about last night but got too tired to post was this: How often do we get a decent snow from something we see on the models 1-2 weeks out? Haven't our most interesting systems be those that kinda show up not weeks ahead of fruition but rather days? Yes, it's discouraging seeing Lucy show us a football 1-2 weeks out only to watch it be pulled away, but it's really not those that turn into something, usually. Am I right here or just kinda reaching? Usually, you look for a conducive pattern beyond D5-D7. Any individual storm beyond hour 168 is highly unlikely to still be there in the same way presented when you fast forward. So in a way you are right, you get closer and the models start to hone in on a storm. However, you still want to see the table being set in the extended |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2020 10:13:00 GMT -6
I do honestly hope we can pull a white christmas for everyone, but we need to be cautious, if our hopes are not high it is not as bad when it does not happen
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 13, 2020 10:28:31 GMT -6
Looks like we will definitely see some of the higher snow totals down here in Branson. Snow / Grauple is coming down heavy at the moment.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2020 10:35:47 GMT -6
Yes chances of snow are gone. Im guessing we wait another 5 to 7 weeks Gone? As in gone gone? One thing I was thinking about last night but got too tired to post was this: How often do we get a decent snow from something we see on the models 1-2 weeks out? Haven't our most interesting systems be those that kinda show up not weeks ahead of fruition but rather days? Yes, it's discouraging seeing Lucy show us a football 1-2 weeks out only to watch it be pulled away, but it's really not those that turn into something, usually. Am I right here or just kinda reaching? We've seen some surprise events unfold where models are clueless until 6-12hrs beforehand...but that's the exception to the rule. Usually, the mid-latitude, synoptic-scale systems that bring significant snowfall to the region are picked up 7-10 days out in model land. That says nothing of consistency, but a rough signal usually shows up at that range or even beyond it. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2020 10:37:14 GMT -6
Creeping towards Christmas being in model fantasyland. Certainly looks to be stormy that week in the Midwest as things stand now. Hopefully, we can get some cold air in play. Pretty much the next thing to watch considering this week is a dud. I did notice that long range progs were generally showing anomalous troffing across the Central/Midwest US...so that's somewhat encouraging. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2020 10:41:00 GMT -6
We really need to get some blocking going in the EPAC/GoA...the fast flow off the Pacific and short wavelength is making it tough for these storms to develop and mature. You can easily see this next week, as the upstream ridge quickly flattens and allows the mid/upper low to open up and shear out as it approaches...and then rapidly deepen once it hits the coastal baroclinic zone.
I do think there's potential for a low-end snowfall event Tues PM into Wed...but it will likely be on the light side with an inch or two at most. The dry air is going to put up a good fight, and with the system in the process of decaying it's going to be tough to overwhelm that.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 13, 2020 10:54:48 GMT -6
Is there any hints of blocking developing
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2020 11:00:07 GMT -6
Is there any hints of blocking developing The pattern by D10 starts to look better for Christmas week with the GoA trof being replaced by a large-scale ridge and Bering Low, as well as some Greenland blocking. Whether or not it will be maintained is the question... |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2020 11:13:21 GMT -6
A few days ago Dave said christmas looked cold but dry that week.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 13, 2020 11:20:57 GMT -6
The radar in SW Mo looks amazing..... and knowing we get nothing out of that is a punch to the gut.... being a snow lover in SW Illinois is not much fun anymore......I sure wish we could get some snow luck
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 13, 2020 11:22:01 GMT -6
The radar in SW Mo looks amazing..... and knowing we get nothing out of that is a punch to the gut.... being a snow lover in SW Illinois is not much fun anymore......I sure wish we could get some snow luck Yea, that is the tease of all teases. Maybe I’ll get some flurries. “Lol.” |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 13, 2020 11:32:08 GMT -6
yeah this sucks.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 13, 2020 11:32:36 GMT -6
It does seem that the radar returns are a little north of what the models have shown...... now if it’s making it to the ground that’s another story
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Post by dschreib on Dec 13, 2020 11:37:24 GMT -6
While it is frustrating (though at the same time a nice treat for them) to see the panhandle and across the state of OK/ NW AR to see a substantial amount of snow before STL does...it doesn't annoy me near as much as if areas straight south and especially southeast of us (TN, AL, S KY, GA) get the goods. That's when I feel we really get screwed. Lol. I agree with the 2nd part of this, but Amarillo gets more snow than STL (and KC).
Location, location, location.
(OKC only gets about 8"/yr, so I also see your point about across the state of OK and into AR.)
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 13, 2020 11:44:02 GMT -6
The radar in SW Mo looks amazing..... and knowing we get nothing out of that is a punch to the gut.... being a snow lover in SW Illinois is not much fun anymore......I sure wish we could get some snow luck It’s absolutely beautiful down here. Snow is very heavy with nickel size flakes falling. Ground is almost covered in Branson, Missouri. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2020 11:46:03 GMT -6
While it is frustrating (though at the same time a nice treat for them) to see the panhandle and across the state of OK/ NW AR to see a substantial amount of snow before STL does...it doesn't annoy me near as much as if areas straight south and especially southeast of us (TN, AL, S KY, GA) get the goods. That's when I feel we really get screwed. Lol. I agree with the 2nd part of this, but Amarillo gets more snow than STL (and KC).
Location, location, location.
(OKC only gets about 8"/yr, so I also see your point about across the state of OK and into AR.)
Also...elevation, elevation, elevation! Our location being in a river valley at low elevation does us no favors. |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 13, 2020 11:49:02 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 13, 2020 11:51:07 GMT -6
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 13, 2020 11:52:23 GMT -6
Ukie isn’t too bad Tuesday night. Nothing more than an inch but it’s something
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Post by dschreib on Dec 13, 2020 11:56:58 GMT -6
I agree with the 2nd part of this, but Amarillo gets more snow than STL (and KC).
Location, location, location.
(OKC only gets about 8"/yr, so I also see your point about across the state of OK and into AR.)
Also...elevation, elevation, elevation! Our location being in a river valley at low elevation does us no favors. Yeah, mostly that, actually. But it also seems like we see systems spill over the Rockies into the panhandle area and then either get sheared apart or just slide straight east instead of taking a route more favorable for us. The panhandle area just seems to be the "bullseye". I'll let you, bdgwx, or somebody else smarter than me explain to everybody why that is... |
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 13, 2020 11:58:29 GMT -6
Lots of people are catching them up on Table Rock. I haven’t even had a chance to try for them because the trout fishing has been so good. Lost a 5 pounder I got all the way to the dock before it snapped the line... |
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Post by dschreib on Dec 13, 2020 11:59:56 GMT -6
I guess we (at least I) don't normally think of OK like this:
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2020 12:03:47 GMT -6
I knew it would be like this, but the video and pic still make me wanna puke.
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