|
|
Post by landscaper on Dec 13, 2020 21:08:29 GMT -6
It does look a little better, a little more defined and put together
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 13, 2020 21:24:00 GMT -6
so far, things looking good for stargazers on 12/21 watching the Venus and Saturn doing their thing...should be a mostly clear night. Then looking ahead on Christmas day, looks good too, mostly sunny with temps in the upper 40s. Looks like Dave Murray has this Christmas forecast correct. Of course, a green christmas is always a good bet around here. Pretty fast flow in the atmosphere, and so far in the future, so of course things can change.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 13, 2020 21:31:52 GMT -6
Tulsa had 5.5" today. Branson was closing in in 4 a couple hours ago.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 13, 2020 21:32:41 GMT -6
|
|
twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
|
Post by twocat on Dec 14, 2020 8:01:32 GMT -6
Chris' future cast animation for Tuesday would be the perfect shirt for the corner. Classic split.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2020 8:06:18 GMT -6
Looks like we'll make it *well* past the 15th before meaningful snow. They even had a bit of accumulation in Little Rock last night. Off to a great start. At least I wasn't surprised by this junk.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 14, 2020 8:17:17 GMT -6
Looks like we'll make it *well* past the 15th before meaningful snow. They even had a bit of accumulation in Little Rock last night. Off to a great start. At least I wasn't surprised by this junk. You were right. My December prediction fizzled. It seems like March is more of a snow month than December now. Regardless, some decent signals for the PV to be weakened over the next few weeks. First shot to it happens this week, then one before the New Year. If it’s reflective, we have a decent shot at holiday fun. Otherwise, We may have a chance at sustained fun as the PV gets battered in the heart of winter |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 8:35:03 GMT -6
Did some digging. At least here in Columbia, for the period 12-1 to 1-15, we've averaged 2 1" or more events since 1890.
When compared to 1-15 to 2-28, that value increases to ~3.3.
Plenty of winter ahead.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 8:37:17 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 8:39:42 GMT -6
Guess now is a better time for an announcement... will be making my way back to Colorado on the 27th.
My new gig is still under wraps, but thankfully I'll still be in weather.
It's been nice to be back forecasting in the midwest the past 3 years.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 14, 2020 8:39:47 GMT -6
12z nam making Tuesday night/Wednesday interesting again.
Very, very close
|
|
|
|
Post by REB on Dec 14, 2020 8:40:57 GMT -6
Did some digging. At least here in Columbia, for the period 12-1 to 1-15, we've averaged 2 1" or more events since 1890. When compared to 1-15 to 2-28, that value increases to ~3.3. Plenty of winter ahead. Luke, What’s the announcement? |
|
|
|
Post by REB on Dec 14, 2020 8:41:57 GMT -6
Did some digging. At least here in Columbia, for the period 12-1 to 1-15, we've averaged 2 1" or more events since 1890. When compared to 1-15 to 2-28, that value increases to ~3.3. Plenty of winter ahead. Luke, What’s the announcement? You beat me |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 8:43:52 GMT -6
Luke, What’s the announcement? You beat me I was surprised about how many folks guessed it last night... but I guess some of those folks have been following my instagram. Social media is weird 🤪 |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2020 8:59:40 GMT -6
I remember a sneaky little system years ago when I was a kid in school - little weak system that backbuilt just enough across the river for most of the afternoon and gave us a surprise 2-3 inches of snow. That is kind of what the nam is showing and really the only hope.
|
|
|
|
Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 14, 2020 9:02:31 GMT -6
I was surprised about how many folks guessed it last night... but I guess some of those folks have been following my instagram. Social media is weird 🤪 hate to see you go, but your career is what you make of it. enjoy the chinooks alternating with days of heavy snow. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2020 9:03:13 GMT -6
I remember a sneaky little system years ago when I was a kid in school - little weak system that backbuilt just enough across the river for most of the afternoon and gave us a surprise 2-3 inches of snow. That is kind of what the nam is showing and really the only hope. We need to catch a mesoscale band that can overwhelm the dry advection...that's our only hope for accumulating snow. |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 9:24:51 GMT -6
Well at least it isn't just us that could potentially get screwed over with the Tues/Wed system. KC will as well, they are in a very bad drought right now!
|
|
|
|
Post by ElburnDave on Dec 14, 2020 9:24:53 GMT -6
Guess now is a better time for an announcement... will be making my way back to Colorado on the 27th. My new gig is still under wraps, but thankfully I'll still be in weather. It's been nice to be back forecasting in the midwest the past 3 years. Congratulations! My wife and I will be out there in July to purchase our retirement place. Will be a full-time Coloradan in just over 10 years. Can't wait! |
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 9:26:46 GMT -6
Guess now is a better time for an announcement... will be making my way back to Colorado on the 27th. My new gig is still under wraps, but thankfully I'll still be in weather. It's been nice to be back forecasting in the midwest the past 3 years. Congratulations! My wife and I will be out there in July to purchase our retirement place. Will be a full-time Coloradan in just over 10 years. Can't wait! Hard to beat the dry air in the summer... hopefully the raging wildfires/smoke isn't an annual thing now either. |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 9:33:58 GMT -6
I remember a sneaky little system years ago when I was a kid in school - little weak system that backbuilt just enough across the river for most of the afternoon and gave us a surprise 2-3 inches of snow. That is kind of what the nam is showing and really the only hope. We need to catch a mesoscale band that can overwhelm the dry advection...that's our only hope for accumulating snow. 12z HRRR says we can catch that mesoscale band! |
|
|
|
Post by ElburnDave on Dec 14, 2020 9:45:00 GMT -6
Congratulations! My wife and I will be out there in July to purchase our retirement place. Will be a full-time Coloradan in just over 10 years. Can't wait! Hard to beat the dry air in the summer... hopefully the raging wildfires/smoke isn't an annual thing now either. They definitely seem to be more common lately. We saw fires south of Fairplay in 2018. It's a gut-punch to see that country burn. |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 9:49:45 GMT -6
 It's the 12z NAM and HRRR vs the world right now. I hope this is a trend even if we see 1/2"-1" of snow. |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 9:52:40 GMT -6
The 12z GFS picked up on what the 12z NAM was showing. Right now the HRRR is the most robust with the moisture supply for Tues/Wed.
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 9:53:46 GMT -6
yeesh... looking at that HRRR if we had ANY moisture to work with, this would be a solid 3-5 incher
Kuchera's are 12-16:1
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 9:55:10 GMT -6
It's very possible that the globals just don't have the resolution to pick up on the mesoscale features that the HRRR/Nam are dilineating. Notice how the NAM has been the only one close to showing anything the past day and a half.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2020 9:58:26 GMT -6
I'm still holding out some hope mid-week...the low-level moisture arrival has trended a bit quicker and models still have the mid-level system somewhat closed off as it passes overhead or just to our south. We need the circulation to remain intact, or that moisture will just get flung off to the east.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 9:59:51 GMT -6
yeesh... looking at that HRRR if we had ANY moisture to work with, this would be a solid 3-5 incher Kuchera's are 12-16:1 Good point, the HRRR would be a decent storm. I would love a 3-5 in lollipop. Though I'm taking the conservative route at the moment so my hopes don't get crushed |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 10:03:52 GMT -6
The RGEM isn't very impressive for 12z.
I agree unclesam, the globals aren't picking up the mesoscale dynamics on this system.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 10:15:57 GMT -6
Chris said this morning that the Gulf of Mexico is shut off because of our last system. We will see if we can get just enough moisture. Luckily, upper level and surface temps will be plenty cold and ground temps will be cold!
|
|
