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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2020 10:16:03 GMT -6
There is an overall trend to pick up the GOM moisture a bit earlier as BRTN said. You can see it on the 12z GEM now too. Though I'm not sure it will end up being enough in time.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2020 10:33:01 GMT -6
15z RAP says what dry air tomorrow night  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2020 10:36:37 GMT -6
One significant trend I've noticed over the past several runs is the upstream ridge has come in a bit more amplified and less flat...that should allow the mid-level low to stay more wrapped up and less sheared.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 10:40:50 GMT -6
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 10:51:42 GMT -6
Now we got the 12z NAM, HRRR, and RAP on our sides vs the rest of the world for deformation snows. Self to note: more moisture supply on the 12z GFS and GEM.
This little system has more up its sleeves. Happy we all have something to follow. This is an example of a storm showing up at the end (on the mesoscale models with only ~36hrs to go). These can be sneaky and are one of my favorites to follow during the winter. As well, they can catch the general public off guard.
Expect the unexpected.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2020 11:13:35 GMT -6
Another heart warming trend is that there's good potential for NYC to get screwed by the warm/marine layer...the NAM has the 0*C line setting up across LI which would certainly allow mixing to occur near the coast. The "50/50 low" moves out too quickly and allows the system to come in too far north...and it's moving quickly at that. I wouldn't be surprised if Central Park gets less than 3"...and it could be a complete bust if the tail end of the deformation stays north.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 11:21:08 GMT -6
Another heart warming trend is that there's good potential for NYC to get screwed by the warm/marine layer...the NAM has the 0*C line setting up across LI which would certainly allow mixing to occur near the coast. The "50/50 low" moves out too quickly and allows the system to come in too far north...and it's moving quickly at that. I wouldn't be surprised if Central Park gets less than 3"...and it could be a complete bust if the tail end of the deformation stays north. This man is evil and I like it. |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 11:27:41 GMT -6
Another heart warming trend is that there's good potential for NYC to get screwed by the warm/marine layer...the NAM has the 0*C line setting up across LI which would certainly allow mixing to occur near the coast. The "50/50 low" moves out too quickly and allows the system to come in too far north...and it's moving quickly at that. I wouldn't be surprised if Central Park gets less than 3"...and it could be a complete bust if the tail end of the deformation stays north. Yep mixing will be a major issue for them. Boston should be okay and stay all snow. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 11:35:24 GMT -6
UKMET is on board with a uptick in moisture.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 14, 2020 11:38:13 GMT -6
unclesam6 - check your PMs!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2020 12:05:13 GMT -6
Euro looks much better tomorrow night. Widespread light snow acorss the area
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 14, 2020 12:11:03 GMT -6
Positive trends this morning/midday. Days like today are why this is my favorite weather blog!
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Post by landscaper on Dec 14, 2020 12:15:21 GMT -6
Nice!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2020 12:32:57 GMT -6
Much more mid level moisture Tuesday night on the 12z Euro run today compared to last nights run Last nights run  Todays run  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2020 12:56:52 GMT -6
H85 low definitely more wrapped up that run...pulls the moisture back into the cold air more efficiently. If we can get a weak TROWAL going, we'll be in business.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2020 13:44:54 GMT -6
Definitely a weak TROWAL trying to develop on the 12z NAM...if the deeper moisture arrives another 3-6hrs sooner this could come together decently across the region.   |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2020 13:47:00 GMT -6
18z hrrrrrrr drops an inch in the metro
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Dec 14, 2020 13:53:25 GMT -6
Positive trends this morning/midday. Days like today are why this is my favorite weather blog! There are other weather blogs? 😳 |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 14, 2020 14:02:43 GMT -6
Indeed interesting trends on the 12z data...nice to have model data catch up to the going forecast  This system still seems on track for some patchy light snow and flurries. I'm not going to agonize over it too much...it's small. I've had light mix/light snow in for Tuesday night since last week and thatbstill looks like a good forecast. Although I did pull the mix out this morning and go to all snow... light as it may be. Just enough to dust the ground white is what Im thinking. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2020 14:12:14 GMT -6
Yeah...definitely a low end event...still like the 1-2" or less line of thinking unless something drastic changes...maybe the old D-3" if the models start to pick on more robust mesobanding potential.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 14, 2020 14:16:16 GMT -6
18z NAM looking even better, i nice organized batch of snow. I think an inch or less would about cover the whole storm .
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 14, 2020 14:20:03 GMT -6
Yea, nice look on the nam...continue the trend. I think if we ended up with a 1-3" type system we could chalk it up as a win.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 14, 2020 14:24:56 GMT -6
Does timing call for folks to at least pay attention Wednesday morning? Most of this falls in the dead of night... I'd have to expect roads could get slick, even with a trace to 1"... no?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 14, 2020 14:33:41 GMT -6
BTW my definition of "meaningful" snow is a pretty widespread event of at least an inch.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2020 14:35:01 GMT -6
Does timing call for folks to at least pay attention Wednesday morning? Most of this falls in the dead of night... I'd have to expect roads could get slick, even with a trace to 1"... no? Yeah, it could impact roadways and the AM commute for sure. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 14, 2020 14:49:09 GMT -6
Ground should be pretty cold tomorrow night. Likely won’t take much snow to create some slick spots
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 14, 2020 14:57:37 GMT -6
A widespread event of at least an inch that doesn’t melt before sunrise.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 14, 2020 15:08:59 GMT -6
If we get some decent crystal growth and saturation, it could be a pretty fluffy snow which is somewhat unusual for this early...usually, these early season southern stream storms bring the cement.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 14, 2020 15:12:36 GMT -6
some of those places in ok, that got 4 to 6 inches of snow...thats their biggest snow in several years are in line for another big snow on big snow...something youll never see here. 3 to 5 inches on top...its going to get up in the low 30s today there and it was a wet snow so not sure how much melting takes place. places like Cleo Springs, Enid, Woodworth, Mooreland. really right along the 412 and cimarron river stand to get another good snow there.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 14, 2020 15:20:17 GMT -6
amarillo tx has had 11.5 inches of snow, 7 inches above normal. due north, bismark, nd checks in with 4.9, which is nearly 10 inches below normal. definitely a southern pattern in play here. wldnt surprise me if memphis gets action eventually with this pattern.
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