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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 15, 2020 13:38:15 GMT -6
Kinda get the feeling radar is gonna look good tonight but nothing will be reaching the ground. At least not for awhile.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2020 13:43:10 GMT -6
18z HRRR shows several meso bands developing across the region by midnight that try to merge roughly along 44/55 into IL before collapsing SE with a deformation cycle. The RAP shows a similar setup. Areas outside of those bands may be limited to flurries or light snow but if you're lucky enough to get underneath them it should come down nicely and pile up a bit.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2020 13:48:47 GMT -6
Ya it could come down good in some spots tonight. With light winds it will be one of those picturesque “snow globe” snows
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 15, 2020 14:04:04 GMT -6
I hope I bring this snow and cold back with me!!! Alaska is the neatest place ever!!! From Anchorage To Kenia to Homer to Seward to Fairbanks to Coldfoot to north of Wiseman there is so much incredible stuff to look at and learn about ( the Alaskan pipeline and dalton highway were such an unimaginable feat) all you snow lovers try your hardest to make a trip up here to the article circle in the winter you will not regret it! Call Coldfoot camp to book adventure It's probably too late to mention it now but if you have a few hours to fill before you leave Whitaker is an interesting town to visit. Road access is through a railroad tunnel that trains still use. Most of the town lives in a high rise that was originally built by the army in WWII. Also in the building is the police department, a grocery store and much of the school. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2020 14:13:52 GMT -6
18z NAM (even the 3km) has improved dramatically. I agree with the others - if you get under one of those semi-stalled bands, you could do pretty well for yourself.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 15, 2020 14:23:45 GMT -6
Unfortunately the HRRR still sucks.
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Post by mchafin on Dec 15, 2020 14:28:32 GMT -6
NOWCAST TIME!
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 15, 2020 15:19:59 GMT -6
18z NAM (even the 3km) has improved dramatically. I agree with the others - if you get under one of those semi-stalled bands, you could do pretty well for yourself. Yeah the 18z NAM looks robust, but we will have to fight off that dry high pressure air at the start unfortunately. Nonetheless, I think some areas will see a dusting maybe while some see 1/2" to 3/4" by tomorrow morning! |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 15, 2020 15:24:10 GMT -6
The dew points are in the low 20s, so at the surface the dew point depressions are not god awful.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2020 15:29:17 GMT -6
18z HRRR shows several meso bands developing across the region by midnight that try to merge roughly along 44/55 into IL before collapsing SE with a deformation cycle. The RAP shows a similar setup. Areas outside of those bands may be limited to flurries or light snow but if you're lucky enough to get underneath them it should come down nicely and pile up a bit. Looking just at the mid-level vorticity and you would probably think we'd be looking at like a 3 to 6 inch widespread snow along 64 + 44. But holy crap the system is getting squashed and then it opens up and starts to phase with the northern vorticity dropping behind. There is a very fine line here where this system can produce. I am saying maybe like a 10 to 20% chance of it happening. But even as if I could see an area that would get maybe 3 in of snow in a band looking likely Right along 44-55 along the river into Southwest Illinois. it will probably be two bands one that orientated more south than North that will probably equip you and another one that's more west to east that will run right south of 44 and 64. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2020 15:32:38 GMT -6
That should break through it just won't last very long. But that would be some very large flakes with fantastic growth given the crappy moisture  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2020 15:33:55 GMT -6
TWC still going with 12-18” for NYC
That has some high bust potential
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2020 15:34:09 GMT -6
By the time the column is saturated we have a PERFECT SOUNDING. JUST NO LIFT.  |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 15, 2020 15:35:11 GMT -6
Good NWS Disco write up today explaining everything.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2020 15:36:02 GMT -6
18z HRRR shows several meso bands developing across the region by midnight that try to merge roughly along 44/55 into IL before collapsing SE with a deformation cycle. The RAP shows a similar setup. Areas outside of those bands may be limited to flurries or light snow but if you're lucky enough to get underneath them it should come down nicely and pile up a bit. Looking just at the mid-level vorticity and you would probably think we'd be looking at like a 3 to 6 inch widespread snow along 64 + 44. But holy crap the system is getting squashed and then it opens up and starts to phase with the northern vorticity dropping behind. There is a very fine line here where this system can produce. I am saying maybe like a 10 to 20% chance of it happening. But even as if I could see an area that would get maybe 3 in of snow in a band looking likely Right along 44-55 along the river into Southwest Illinois. it will probably be two bands one that orientated more south than North that will probably equip you and another one that's more west to east that will run right south of 44 and 64. Yeah, the transfer of energy really saps this storm and it's already moisture starved. It definitely looks solid in the mid-levels until it approaches the river valley. Most models still have the h85/7 lows closed off and actually slowly deepening, so that gives me hope that those meso bands will develop and be maintained. I think a few will get a nice surprise from this if they are just expecting flurries or a dusting...but most will not. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 15, 2020 15:36:08 GMT -6
I just want a 1/2” , just enough to go salt some lots . Is that to much to ask
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2020 15:39:46 GMT -6
Looking just at the mid-level vorticity and you would probably think we'd be looking at like a 3 to 6 inch widespread snow along 64 + 44. But holy crap the system is getting squashed and then it opens up and starts to phase with the northern vorticity dropping behind. There is a very fine line here where this system can produce. I am saying maybe like a 10 to 20% chance of it happening. But even as if I could see an area that would get maybe 3 in of snow in a band looking likely Right along 44-55 along the river into Southwest Illinois. it will probably be two bands one that orientated more south than North that will probably equip you and another one that's more west to east that will run right south of 44 and 64. Yeah, the transfer of energy really saps this storm and it's already moisture starved. It definitely looks solid in the mid-levels until it approaches the river valley. Most models still have the h85/7 lows closed off and actually slowly deepening, so that gives me hope that those meso bands will develop and be maintained. I think a few will get a nice surprise from this if they are just expecting flurries or a dusting...but most will not. I know it might be wishcasting but this really does have all the earmarks for a major bust in the models towards having a pretty nice event for the immediate metro area. It would be arrogant and foolish to say something like TWO COUNTY WIDE band of snow could drop 2-4" but damn this system is... SO CLOSE TO PRODUCTION. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 15, 2020 15:42:00 GMT -6
There’s the Friv we all know!
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2020 15:43:07 GMT -6
Yeah, the weak TROWAL/meso band potential is definitely there...let's see how it comes together.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2020 15:51:28 GMT -6
There’s the Friv we all know! Haha....I love you all. We're a big family here. I would post more in the off season but I have a lot going on. Anyways like brtn and the brilliant others on here. Including yourself landscaper this system truly has potential. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 15, 2020 15:52:41 GMT -6
Off topic does anyone here lease or own a Tesla.
If so will you tell me about how you feel about the vehicle. I would like it very detailed explanation.
I am going to buy a Tesla sometime in the next five years one way or another hopefully I can get my credit to a point where I can buy a new one or lease a new one but it might have be used either way everybody I've ever seen talk about a Tesla save the best car they've ever been in and once you drive a Tesla at you just can't go back to anything else.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 15, 2020 15:58:07 GMT -6
Fingers are crossed let’s do this. I just want enough to cover the ground.
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Post by dschreib on Dec 15, 2020 15:59:10 GMT -6
Off topic does anyone here lease or own a Tesla. If so will you tell me about how you feel about the vehicle. I would like it very detailed explanation. I am going to buy a Tesla sometime in the next five years one way or another hopefully I can get my credit to a point where I can buy a new one or lease a new one but it might have be used either way everybody I've ever seen talk about a Tesla save the best car they've ever been in and once you drive a Tesla at you just can't go back to anything else. Never have. giarC71 is the only one on here that I know of who owns one.
MarketWatch today says check out Nio instead. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2020 16:07:31 GMT -6
21z RAP joined the hrrrrr in the dud camp
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 15, 2020 16:08:09 GMT -6
Friv, invest in lithium and you'll be able to afford one in 5 years  |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 15, 2020 16:11:11 GMT -6
It’s been in the dud camp for a couple hours now
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 15, 2020 16:16:21 GMT -6
Is snow reaching the ground anywhere in missouri?
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 15, 2020 16:17:37 GMT -6
Following up with Friv's post Lift from the NAM3 really kicks in around 2z... and by 3z the column nearly saturated. So looks like the lift may overcome the dry air rather quickly.   Some spots may see some solid light to maybe brief moderate snow for 4-5 hours if this is the case- with the best chance shortly after it breaks thru. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 15, 2020 16:27:21 GMT -6
Is snow reaching the ground anywhere in missouri? Got the old donut hole on the SGF radar. Slowly filling in |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 15, 2020 16:27:42 GMT -6
Solid moisture plume in eastern Arkansas. Even some lightning strikes in there
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