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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2020 10:21:06 GMT -6
woke up to some snow on the deck. so that was nice. Anyway -- According to Glenn, since this was the "first snow" - we should see 15 snows as it occurred on the 15th of the month. So, using historical evidence and with the Dry Air Monster sitting atop the Arch, I'll apply the following equation for TS (TotalSnows) TS= [(DayOfFirstSnow)(DAM_Factor)]-(STL_Factor) TS= [(15)(1/3)]-2 TS= 3 but didnt the first snow occur on the 16th? lol. not that it changes the outcome on your formula though. bigger question is...did the airport measure it? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 16, 2020 10:23:03 GMT -6
Can someone post the GFS screenshot for the 24th? Fantasy range kaboom material  |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 16, 2020 10:24:53 GMT -6
Have been checking in regularly on this board even being on the Coast now. Happy to hear some of you finally got some snow. I am hoping the Christmas Eve time period can come together, and bring a White Xmas. Probably a long shot, but I guess crazier things have happened. Happy Holidays, All.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 16, 2020 10:27:05 GMT -6
Friday Night/Saturday system so close to snow for us. Surface temps way to warm, but pretty cold with 0C or colder @ 850MB level on upward. Alas surface temps in the mid 40s to upper 30s at best. If we can drag this a bit farther south we could get a nice surprise especially along and north of I-70/I-64. At the vary least models are much wetter with the thing and now almost all operationals show at least a tenth to as much as a half inch of QPF.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2020 10:27:58 GMT -6
12z gfs is very cold Christmas Eve and Christmas.
No southern stream phase this time though.
Confidence is increasing that it will be a cold holiday.
Still plenty of run-to-run variability about any storm. Just check the ensembles
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 16, 2020 10:32:05 GMT -6
Also of note is the AO is forecast to remain strongly negative into the New Year which supports arctic air intrusion into the lower 48 if the models are correct with the breakdown of the GoA trof/onshore flow. We may be starting to see the effects of the current stratospheric vortex disruption event.  |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2020 10:32:37 GMT -6
Pretty much the entire country is below freezing on Christmas this run.
Crazy stuff. It’ll be a transient shot, but just goes to show it’s worth paying attention to those attacks on the PV. Likely to see more sustained action in January as the beating continues
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 16, 2020 10:34:57 GMT -6
2020 the year from you know where is almost over... The 1st of January 2021 is now in sight of the GFS.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 16, 2020 11:01:03 GMT -6
Pretty much the entire country is below freezing on Christmas this run. Crazy stuff. It’ll be a transient shot, but just goes to show it’s worth paying attention to those attacks on the PV. Likely to see more sustained action in January as the beating continues Looks less transient and deeper than previous runs which can't be a bad thing. It actually looks like real winter. Where is an easy place to see the individual ensembles? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 16, 2020 11:05:29 GMT -6
Pretty much the entire country is below freezing on Christmas this run. Crazy stuff. It’ll be a transient shot, but just goes to show it’s worth paying attention to those attacks on the PV. Likely to see more sustained action in January as the beating continues Looks less transient and deeper than previous runs which can't be a bad thing. It actually looks like real winter. Where is an easy place to see the individual ensembles?
Click on GEFS tab at top
Click Precipitation Products then Ensemble Precipitation Types
Change view to midwest for better view
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2020 11:28:28 GMT -6
the more optimal word over transient may be progressive. without any real massive snowcover countrywide, i do agree that the airmass will be easily displaced after christmas if a northern stream system takes effect, but by the same token, i think this could also create a meaningful storm over the middle part if the country...would likely provide a big rain here but start a good snowpack in the upper great plains and could be a good table setter for january with the jets phased and a southern storm track that could bring us shots at winterstorms in january. its all conceptual attm. confidence is increasing a little that this christmas will be cold. i will almost certainly be colder than last year. it will be an interesting period bw christmas and new year to see how the transition takes hold.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 16, 2020 11:36:27 GMT -6
A light dusting earlier this morning in Northern Wildwood. Snow is snow. I'll take this over the classic STL rain in Dec.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2020 12:15:55 GMT -6
gfs has precip with crit thikness under 5400 this weekend but surface temps way too warm. perhaps a pellet or two of sleet possible with the more intense shower possible though.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2020 12:19:39 GMT -6
and i see melissa has that in hand with her morning disco.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2020 13:00:44 GMT -6
good news if you like snow. looking at the models it seems a big storm is developing and it could have big impacts so i checked the internet and you might be able to get a nonstop flight to new york for 209 tomorrow to see it.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2020 13:06:58 GMT -6
good news if you like snow. looking at the models it seems a big storm is developing and it could have big impacts so i checked the internet and you might be able to get a nonstop flight to new york for 209 tomorrow to see it. You might be a little late flying in tomorrow... |
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Dec 16, 2020 13:08:17 GMT -6
roads are impassable in st. peters with blowing and drifting snow and near whiteout conditions. Nope. I'm not sure what compelled you to post this. It was cold and dry in North St. Pete, like it was in most of St. Charles county. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2020 13:08:54 GMT -6
good news if you like snow. looking at the models it seems a big storm is developing and it could have big impacts so i checked the internet and you might be able to get a nonstop flight to new york for 209 tomorrow to see it. You might be a little late flying in tomorrow... im sure the once in a lifetime snow they get every year will still be on the ground. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 16, 2020 13:26:31 GMT -6
You might be a little late flying in tomorrow... im sure the once in a lifetime snow they get every year will still be on the ground. I assumed most winter enthusiasts enjoy the actual storm more than the aftermath, but I could be wrong. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 16, 2020 13:51:03 GMT -6
good news if you like snow. looking at the models it seems a big storm is developing and it could have big impacts so i checked the internet and you might be able to get a nonstop flight to new york for 209 tomorrow to see it. NYC still looks to get screwed by the strong, easterly mid-level jet. Probably a couple inches of sleet and an inch or two of snow on top if they don't get screwed by the dry slot too. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 16, 2020 14:11:22 GMT -6
im sure the once in a lifetime snow they get every year will still be on the ground. I assumed most winter enthusiasts enjoy the actual storm more than the aftermath, but I could be wrong. well for starters it was really a joke and i could not find any flights to laguardia today. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 16, 2020 14:21:23 GMT -6
Not too difficult to see where the def zone will set up. 65kt wind bumping into a wall across NE PA/SE NY  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 16, 2020 14:46:51 GMT -6
18Z NAM's got the Snow for Saturday PM! Much deeper and south as well as a bit cold. It's borderline, but it's there!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 16, 2020 14:50:54 GMT -6
The NAM loves to dangle that carrot in front of our faces in its extended range
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 16, 2020 15:05:30 GMT -6
The NAM loves to dangle that carrot in front of our faces in its extended range 850mb temps are around -5*C. The column is fully below 0*C all the way to 900mb-925mb. Surface temps are a couple degrees above 0*C. It's so close!  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 16, 2020 15:13:12 GMT -6
Confirmed tornado headed into Tampa
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 16, 2020 15:15:00 GMT -6
There was definitely a debris ball on CC by Feather Sound, FL
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 16, 2020 15:32:58 GMT -6
The setup for Saturday looks like it would bring a burst of sleet or graupel as the cold air filters in...but nothing significant. If we can get the N stream wave a little further out front, there may be some better potential for snow.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 16, 2020 15:35:59 GMT -6
RGEM/RDPS model on board for Snow Saturday as well. Again marginal but something to watch. RDPS showing around an inch possible east of the Mississippi but patchy dustings to half inch for most of the area.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 16, 2020 17:28:38 GMT -6
Not too difficult to see where the def zone will set up. 65kt wind bumping into a wall across NE PA/SE NY Wow. Unreal.... We |
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