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Post by snowjunky on Dec 17, 2020 9:11:59 GMT -6
WAM then DAM, that's the STL plan. And the dreaded “Dry Slotted”. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2020 9:29:01 GMT -6
It’s a shame low level temps are a bit to warm Saturday. The lift and lapse rates in the DGZ are great  |
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 17, 2020 9:30:14 GMT -6
Are the snow/storm chances between the 23rd and 25th gone, or do we think there is still potential to get it back?
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 17, 2020 9:36:47 GMT -6
Are the snow/storm chances between the 23rd and 25th gone, or do we think there is still potential to get it back? Certainly possible, but low probability. A few ensembles across the three main globals show what we want. Most likely we get a pretty intense cold shot for Christmas Eve/Christmas. Always a chance that type of airmass can squeeze the moisture out and dust things up. Hopefully, we see more energy dumped into the 4 corners with the runs this morning. |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 17, 2020 10:10:42 GMT -6
Seeing a couple reports of 40" near Birmingham, NY. Highest I can find ...Tioga County... 2 SE Newark Valley 44.0 in 0700 AM 12/17 Public |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 17, 2020 10:21:05 GMT -6
GFS has a wee bit more moisture sticking around in the cold sector on Christmas eve. It isn't much, but it is an improvement and trends a bit toward last night's GEM.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 17, 2020 10:54:12 GMT -6
Canadian would like to introduce some secondary development along the front on Christmas. We may have some potential there...seems to be a bit of a trend.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 17, 2020 10:57:14 GMT -6
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 17, 2020 10:58:43 GMT -6
Looks like the pattern screams active into January... Seems like the cold won't be a stranger either. Lots of winter left.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2020 11:13:05 GMT -6
There’s quite a few GEFS members that are interesting for the Christmas Eve storm
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 17, 2020 11:14:38 GMT -6
the cpc 30 day is out. 40 chance of above temps, equal chance of prec. the 90 day is almost 40 of above normsl temps and more than 40 for wet with 50 just to our east. what we see now is what we get for the periods, iow.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 17, 2020 11:17:25 GMT -6
Have we ever had a legitimate snow between Christmas and New Years?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 17, 2020 11:26:09 GMT -6
Have we ever had a legitimate snow between Christmas and New Years? Dec. 28 2012 would like to have a word with you. I-44 was pretty well the cutoff with that one though. I wish I could relive that one. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 17, 2020 11:33:25 GMT -6
Have we ever had a legitimate snow between Christmas and New Years? thats a good point. it seems the winter is in relax mode during that time period more often than not. i think what stands out for me in that time period is a few episodes of freezing rain or drizzle for wintry precip. i recall a tornado on NYE and of course the infamous 11 inch rainfall. but in terms of meaningful snow or winter precip, i wld bet the number of occurrances to be counted on one hand in my lifetime. |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 17, 2020 11:41:27 GMT -6
wow
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2020 11:59:48 GMT -6
More snow in 3 hours than almost every single snowstorm in STL history...must be nice, lol.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 17, 2020 12:14:02 GMT -6
Wow, that radar loop is incredible....Is/was that a of being in the right location WRT the 'pivot' point of the storm?? It looks like quite a wide area was under that band. Wow.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2020 12:49:08 GMT -6
Wow, that radar loop is incredible....Is/was that a of being in the right location WRT the 'pivot' point of the storm?? It looks like quite a wide area was under that band. Wow. Textbook "pivot point". Crazy strong TROWAL/Fgen. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2020 13:04:14 GMT -6
Averaging an inch every 12 minutes for 3 hours. I'd like to see that just once.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 17, 2020 13:10:39 GMT -6
Averaging an inch every 12 minutes for 3 hours. I'd like to see that just once. You'll have to move to the east coast. Not saying it's impossible, but a strong mid latitude cyclone in the middle part of the nation can't generate enough moisture as a coastal mid latitude cyclone can to begin with, let alone for 3 hours! That's just insane. I think all I've witnessed is 2"/hr rates before back on Jan 4-5, 2015 here in STL for an around a couple hours. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2020 13:14:51 GMT -6
Lake effect bands can probably get to those rates. One of the things on my weather bucket list is experiencing a lake effect snowstorm
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2020 13:15:20 GMT -6
I'm well aware that will never happen here. Either the ne or snowbelts along the great lakes.
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 17, 2020 13:23:56 GMT -6
True about lake effect. Though it's so not uniform and more nail bitting. I would hate to be the person 5 mi away from the action and not getting more than flurries while the one getting pounded is receiving intense snowfall rates.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2020 13:34:34 GMT -6
I recorded 3"/hr at the height of the TSSN band during the 3/4/08 storm which is still the heaviest snow I've witnessed. I couldn't imagine a snow rate twice that much.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 17, 2020 13:52:56 GMT -6
Most I've seen is 6.0" in 2.5 hrs during the WAA portion of the pre-Christmas 2002 storm. The Dec. 28 2012 was 9 inches in 4.5 hrs and that was really intense too.
A few videos out there from last night and it's really incredible. Snow just dumping out of the sky.
What were the rates in the '82 storm?
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 17, 2020 14:13:26 GMT -6
I had up to 3"/hr rates in March 2013. And compared to that the reports of 6"/hr rates in PA/NY last night are insane.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 17, 2020 16:25:02 GMT -6
Averaging an inch every 12 minutes for 3 hours. I'd like to see that just once. You'll have to move to the east coast. Not saying it's impossible, but a strong mid latitude cyclone in the middle part of the nation can't generate enough moisture as a coastal mid latitude cyclone can to begin with, let alone for 3 hours! That's just insane. I think all I've witnessed is 2"/hr rates before back on Jan 4-5, 2015 here in STL for an around a couple hours. we came close in cape girardeau blizzard of 1979. there was abt 3 inches of snow on the ground at 630 am. the storm total was 24 inches and writeups abt the storm are somewhat inaccurate because they speak of snow all day. honestly the majority of accumulations occurred in the morning. our forecasts came out of stl at that time, and by the time the blizzard warning was issued, things had already gotten out of hand. id say we were over 20 inches by noon, and when the snow was letting up, a fair amount of it contributed to compaction. during the morning, hamsters were driven by wind gusts up to 50 mph. Lightning and thunder was happening frequently and if you were still in bed, you assumed it was a severe thunderstorm. my earth science teacher recalled confusion bc, she was hearing the storm before she got up and realized that things looked too light through her curtsins so she looked out the window and discovered what was going on. now what i described was probably more along the lines of 3 to 4 inches per hour and that was amazing. 5 inches an hour for 3 hours would be...i cant think of a word that tops amazing. drifts of 8 feet high against houses were common. awnings collapsed, roadway signs blew over, and an air supported bubble over the university swimming pool collapsed. |
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Post by grizzlebeard on Dec 17, 2020 16:37:41 GMT -6
If we are ever going to get to those rates, we would really need the "river effect" snow to kick in....
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 17, 2020 16:41:19 GMT -6
somebody mentioned local variations in short distances. i should point out, the blizzard of 79 in writeups, state that it was a 90 mile wide band of snow that dumped 10 inches on the fringes to 24 inches at cape girardeau and jackson. the band reportedly stretched from west plains to cape.if you were outside that band and liked snow, you wldnt be happy. my brother and his pregnant wife were stuck on i55, the only highway in and out of the area ran into snow bw perryville and ste. gen and by the time they got to cape county mid morning, they left their car on an exit ramp and hoofed it into jackson.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 17, 2020 17:20:35 GMT -6
somebody mentioned local variations in short distances. i should point out, the blizzard of 79 in writeups, state that it was a 90 mile wide band of snow that dumped 10 inches on the fringes to 24 inches at cape girardeau and jackson. the band reportedly stretched from west plains to cape.if you were outside that band and liked snow, you wldnt be happy. my brother and his pregnant wife were stuck on i55, the only highway in and out of the area ran into snow bw perryville and ste. gen and by the time they got to cape county mid morning, they left their car on an exit ramp and hoofed it into jackson. I really like hearing about this one. This had to be a similar setup to the ‘82 event in stl I’m thinking? Darn shame we don’t have radar archives from those days. Also a shame that I wasn’t alive yet for either. |
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