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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2020 14:51:18 GMT -6
I still have a hard time believing the surface wave is going to lift that far north and west...but if there's a way for us to get screwed over, it'll happen. The cold air definitely gets pretty well scrubbed out by the onshore/downsloping flow coming in quickly behind the ejecting storm. We've got to get the pattern in the Pacific to flip or it's going to continue to be tough to get anything substantial.
At this rate, I won't trust any forecast showing snow until it's falling and piling up. I'm about burnt out following these models and the lame weather around here...
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 14:59:01 GMT -6
Oh look another 32* “ice storm”. We only saw a dozen of these last winter  |
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 28, 2020 15:06:52 GMT -6
I still have a hard time believing the surface wave is going to lift that far north and west...but if there's a way for us to get screwed over, it'll happen. The cold air definitely gets pretty well scrubbed out by the onshore/downsloping flow coming in quickly behind the ejecting storm. We've got to get the pattern in the Pacific to flip or it's going to continue to be tough to get anything substantial. At this rate, I won't trust any forecast showing snow until it's falling and piling up. I'm about burnt out following these models and the lame weather around here... Why wouldn't it lift far north and west of us? There's no other shortwave to our north or west over Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas. No blocking high pressure. The upper level heights are very weak and spread out across this area. The low would want to go towards the path of least resistance and that's western MO and Kansas. Right? |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 28, 2020 15:16:05 GMT -6
So what you're saying is that we have a chance (AFDLSX Discussion):
One factor that has been consistent
in recent runs of the GEFS and EPS means is these features being
displaced further west - a trend that places the better chance of
widespread frozen precipitation further west. Even with this trend,
it bears repeating that guidance consensus on the track of this
system is still too low at this time to nail down exact timing,
type, and amount of precipitation.
Elmore
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2020 15:17:22 GMT -6
I'll say it yet again...gotta get that EPO in negative territory.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2020 15:36:23 GMT -6
I'll say it yet again...gotta get that EPO in negative territory. good luck with that. tinyurl.com/ydcq2nvd |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 28, 2020 15:41:31 GMT -6
I'm trying to find what year it was (late 70s or early 80s) that we had a terrible New Year's Eve ice storm. I went to a party but we didn't stay real late. Lots of power outages, stop lights out that sort of thing. STLtoday is not providing any help.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2020 15:49:14 GMT -6
I still have a hard time believing the surface wave is going to lift that far north and west...but if there's a way for us to get screwed over, it'll happen. The cold air definitely gets pretty well scrubbed out by the onshore/downsloping flow coming in quickly behind the ejecting storm. We've got to get the pattern in the Pacific to flip or it's going to continue to be tough to get anything substantial. At this rate, I won't trust any forecast showing snow until it's falling and piling up. I'm about burnt out following these models and the lame weather around here... Why wouldn't it lift far north and west of us? There's no other shortwave to our north or west over Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas. No blocking high pressure. The upper level heights are very weak and spread out across this area. The low would want to go towards the path of least resistance and that's western MO and Kansas. Right? It's a matter of timing, mostly...and how the system interacts with the kicker energy digging in behind it. If the shortwave ejects quicker, the ridging out front won't rebound like models show currently. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2020 15:52:56 GMT -6
I'll say it yet again...gotta get that EPO in negative territory. good luck with that. tinyurl.com/ydcq2nvdThanks for posting. Not good. Keep expectations very low until that changes. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2020 16:44:53 GMT -6
my forecast for Thursday night...lololol. I fully expect this to say rain and nothing but rain by Wednesday.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Blustery. Sleet, possibly mixed with snow and
freezing rain. Precipitation heavy at times. Low in the upper
20s. Temperature rising into the 30s by midnight, then near
steady overnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 16:49:25 GMT -6
GEFS continues shifting west. This thing might end up by Unclesam in Denver by the end of the week
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Post by amstilost on Dec 28, 2020 16:50:59 GMT -6
My forecast is very wintry for Wed. night, Thursday, Thurs night, and NYD. The chance of freezing rain/sleet actually went up from 30% to 50%...Hmmmm
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Post by weatherj on Dec 28, 2020 16:57:07 GMT -6
Is the pattern similar to the 12/24/09 storm in the sense that a huge ridge blows up to its east and the storm goes due N and even slightly NNW?
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2020 17:15:46 GMT -6
Snow , I was about to post the forecast for wentzville, it’s quite comical. Very similar, you would think we’re getting a WSW type event. I’ve had so many people ask me about the big storm coming later this week. I don’t know what’s going on with the NWS forecast.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2020 17:21:10 GMT -6
I guess at this point our only hope is the cold air in place is closer to the gem and NAM and the gfs and euro. Then if we could get a weaker storm maybe we could hold onto a mix longer . It looks like the precipitation moves in between 6-9 pm Thursday evening. Being at night is a little helpful compared to if the precipitation would start mid day or something like that. I definitely don’t have much expectation on this storm. Or the pattern were in . Looks warm and wet for the next two weeks. I haven’t heard much about the SSW it’s any closer to actually doing anything.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2020 17:31:23 GMT -6
I guess at this point our only hope is the cold air in place is closer to the gem and NAM and the gfs and euro. Then if we could get a weaker storm maybe we could hold onto a mix longer . It looks like the precipitation moves in between 6-9 pm Thursday evening. Being at night is a little helpful compared to if the precipitation would start mid day or something like that. I definitely don’t have much expectation on this storm. Or the pattern were in . Looks warm and wet for the next two weeks. I haven’t heard much about the SSW it’s any closer to actually doing anything. The SSW is still looking good. Snowstorm posted a good tweet on the last page. Likely impacts will be after the 15th and maybe closer to the 21st, but they could be long lasting which is great. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2020 17:32:06 GMT -6
Models still show the strato vortex splitting after the new year as a huge burst of westerlies comes across the pole. That should have big implications on the large scale pattern into the rest of the winter.
Hopefully it realigns the pattern in the Pacific, because right now it just plain sucks. I expected the -EPO to become established this winter given the Nina and warm SST pool in the GoA, but so far that has not been the case at all.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 17:40:45 GMT -6
Here's the long term EPO forecast from the EPS After it goes hard positive early in the month it might settle into a more neutral phase by mid month  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 28, 2020 17:59:06 GMT -6
For what it's worth, I think the NWS forecast is too robust with the winter potential...and definitely accumulations. It may be a function of how the computers generate a text forecast based on the gridded forecast. But sure does sound a little too beefy.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2020 18:05:54 GMT -6
For what it's worth, I think the NWS forecast is too robust with the winter potential...and definitely accumulations. It may be a function of how the computers generate a text forecast based on the gridded forecast. But sure does sound a little too beefy. I looked at the forecast and laughed for 5 minutes. No way in hell does that happen |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 28, 2020 18:12:48 GMT -6
For what it's worth, I think the NWS forecast is too robust with the winter potential...and definitely accumulations. It may be a function of how the computers generate a text forecast based on the gridded forecast. But sure does sound a little too beefy. I just figured the forecaster who put it up, wasn't familiar with St. Louis winters.  Maybe it's his first year here. Next year he'll get it right. We'll have to tell him to forecast drought for Union no matter what happens though. May not get that opportunity this year. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 18:21:50 GMT -6
18z euro is so far west we miss most of the heavy rain to the west
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 28, 2020 18:30:33 GMT -6
18z euro is so far west we miss most of the heavy rain to the west I'm fine with missing most of the heavy rain |
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Post by weatherj on Dec 28, 2020 18:32:23 GMT -6
18z euro is so far west we miss most of the heavy rain to the west Good, if that solution verifies I may see very little rain. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2020 18:38:57 GMT -6
That would be awesome, I hate cold rain
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 28, 2020 20:40:00 GMT -6
Well the other side of the globe has been getting tons of snow...of course. Winter weather almost always spills on that side each yr.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 28, 2020 20:42:21 GMT -6
Wish fish would come in to explain the individual forecasts. And how they work. I think we all assume its computer generated though.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 20:42:46 GMT -6
In other news, the highest recorded pressure may have just been recorded in Mongolia at 1094.3hpa which would shatter the old record of 1084.8hpa from 2001
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2020 20:48:21 GMT -6
and models are showing around a 923 mb low in the north Pacific..which would be a record also
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2020 20:51:59 GMT -6
and models are showing around a 923 mb low in the north Pacific..which would be a record also yep some strange things going on |
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Maybe it's his first year here. Next year he'll get it right. We'll have to tell him to forecast drought for Union no matter what happens though. May not get that opportunity this year.