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Post by landscaper on Dec 29, 2020 15:45:31 GMT -6
RGEM usually does a very good job with these type of set ups. A weaker storm , a little more cold air and your in business. I like a blend of the RGEM/NAM/GEM I think the GFS/Euro are a little too warm/west/strong with there set up. The RGEM might be a little to cold as well. .
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Post by landscaper on Dec 29, 2020 15:46:03 GMT -6
Thursday night is what he’s referring to
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 29, 2020 15:49:42 GMT -6
18z gfs should come a bit more SE with how HP is placed.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 29, 2020 15:51:41 GMT -6
I'd bet a dollar that models are lifting the surface boundary north too quickly...the warmer/NW models like the GFS and EC move the boundary 250+ miles in 12hrs with precip falling into the cold sector with an easterly low-level flow.
I could definitely see this turning into an impactful ice event across parts of the area if that boundary remains stubborn.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 29, 2020 15:52:20 GMT -6
🤞🤣
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 29, 2020 15:53:03 GMT -6
Thursday night is what he’s referring to I know. I’m just saying that alone could make it a bigger story. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 29, 2020 15:53:16 GMT -6
That surface ridge over the top and downstream has also trended stronger over the past several runs...models have it getting to 1030mb or so across the Lakes/OHV. Something to keep an eye on.
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Post by cardsnweather on Dec 29, 2020 15:55:34 GMT -6
That surface ridge over the top and downstream has also trended stronger over the past several runs...models have it getting to 1030mb or so across the Lakes/OHV. Something to keep an eye on. I’ve been watching that closely. If it could just hang on a bit longer. The way it moves East just pushes that low toward Oklahoma with the east wind coming around it. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2020 15:57:03 GMT -6
I'd bet a dollar that models are lifting the surface boundary north too quickly...the warmer/NW models like the GFS and EC move the boundary 250+ miles in 12hrs with precip falling into the cold sector with an easterly low-level flow. I could definitely see this turning into an impactful ice event across parts of the area if that boundary remains stubborn. The icing potential will happen at night as well. Something that could aid accretion |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 29, 2020 16:07:06 GMT -6
That's a primo bwg post.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 29, 2020 16:08:41 GMT -6
One thing is almost certain this system is going to be a messy one. Not a clean 'purge' of the continent but rather a system that leaves tons of pieces behind as in lots of small spokes of energy that could be turn into something or perhaps not. Interesting 3-7 day setup for sure. Saturday's energy seems at the moment to have the best chance to produce. But it's a minor to light event at best for now.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 29, 2020 16:25:00 GMT -6
Finally have some impressive snow/wind in Chicago.
Good luck to you guys.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 29, 2020 16:31:41 GMT -6
Also, the new NWS radar is trash.
Almost unusable
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 29, 2020 16:37:55 GMT -6
I agree. Who let that go to production - the radar, that is?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2020 16:39:19 GMT -6
Looks like all of the 18z GEFS members have the “kicker” energy generating precipitation around here Saturday. Even just mood snow would be better than nothing at this point
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 29, 2020 16:39:35 GMT -6
Amazing how this forum goes from kaboom to crickets within a couple model runs, lol. And just like that, the snowbunnies quit posting to chris' corner (read in Forrest Gump's voice) |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 29, 2020 16:53:18 GMT -6
Also, the new NWS radar is trash. Almost unusable Dude! You read my mind. I was going to post this morning if anyone else was having issues getting the radar to animate. Or show composite vs base. While the old radar was, old, it at least worked. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 29, 2020 17:01:05 GMT -6
Also, the new NWS radar is trash. Almost unusable Dude! You read my mind. I was going to post this morning if anyone else was having issues getting the radar to animate. Or show composite vs base. While the old radar was, old, it at least worked. I gave up and just looked out the window lol |
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Post by mchafin on Dec 29, 2020 17:09:15 GMT -6
Dude! You read my mind. I was going to post this morning if anyone else was having issues getting the radar to animate. Or show composite vs base. While the old radar was, old, it at least worked. I gave up and just looked out the window lol How much you going to get in Streeterville? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 29, 2020 17:17:43 GMT -6
Looks like some pretty prolific thunder snow going on in eastern Iowa
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 29, 2020 17:19:58 GMT -6
I gave up and just looked out the window lol How much you going to get in Streeterville? 2-3 inches. Coming down sideways as always by the lake. Wish I was a little further north and west for this one. A quick 6-8 inches nearby |
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Post by ElburnDave on Dec 29, 2020 17:32:46 GMT -6
Couple inches down out in the Fox. It's coming down sideways here, too. Managed to get upgraded to our first WSW of the season this afternoon for 4-9", likely the lower end of that, and most if not all will be melted by tomorrow afternoon.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 29, 2020 17:38:29 GMT -6
just for kicks I noticed the cpc has parts of teh mid and lower MS valley and adjoining oh valley outlined for a precip hazard at the end of the first week in January. Both Euro and GFS have another good storm system out of the southwest in this time period, although at this time it does not appear to have any cold air connection.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Dec 29, 2020 17:39:06 GMT -6
Also, the new NWS radar is trash. Almost unusable I was afraid it was just me. It's Terrible. Yes with a capital T. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 29, 2020 18:09:08 GMT -6
Also, the new NWS radar is trash. Almost unusable Dude! You read my mind. I was going to post this morning if anyone else was having issues getting the radar to animate. Or show composite vs base. While the old radar was, old, it at least worked. I've been fuming about it ever since they switched. It really stinks. Looks more like something that used to air on a local access cable channel in 1984 |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 29, 2020 18:14:44 GMT -6
I believe I read somewhere they basically used the same technology from 2005 or something for the radar. Lack of funding may be an issue..
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Post by amstilost on Dec 29, 2020 19:04:50 GMT -6
Dude! You read my mind. I was going to post this morning if anyone else was having issues getting the radar to animate. Or show composite vs base. While the old radar was, old, it at least worked. I've been fuming about it ever since they switched. It really stinks. Looks more like something that used to air on a local access cable channel in 1984 I mentioned this awhile back. Really, we do hold the @^!& purse strings. If that is how the government described it, that is a pretty *$%##@ way of describing it, "lack of funding" my ^**. I do not recall my taxes being refunded to me. We are in deep doo doo. Rant over....this weather sucks too. |
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Dec 29, 2020 19:41:40 GMT -6
I've been fuming about it ever since they switched. It really stinks. Looks more like something that used to air on a local access cable channel in 1984 I mentioned this awhile back. Really, we do hold the @^!& purse strings. If that is how the government described it, that is a pretty *$%##@ way of describing it, "lack of funding" my ^**. I do not recall my taxes being refunded to me. We are in deep doo doo. Rant over....this weather sucks too. the lack of funding is probably why they cut back on snow, too. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 29, 2020 19:56:19 GMT -6
It looks like the hi res models are picking up on the back side potential tomorrow afternoon. The HRRR/RAP are showing the cold air catching up to the rain line . There might be a 1-3 hour window of snow/sleet mix between 11am-3pm from west to east . Not a real big deal but something to keep an eye on. Even the GFS had it last run .
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 29, 2020 20:02:53 GMT -6
I believe I read somewhere they basically used the same technology from 2005 or something for the radar. Lack of funding may be an issue.. Kinda makes you wonder why they even bothered |
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