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Post by weatherj on Jan 23, 2021 12:09:51 GMT -6
Surface temps could be an issue Wednesday depending on when the snow hits, but mid level temps look nice and cold. Lapse rates through the DGZ look steep as well. This has some kaboom potential for a portion of the area. That's one of the better look vorts I can remember coming through here in a while. GFS has PW values at 0.50" so this thing has some moisture to work with What portion of the area does it favor at this time? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2021 12:12:09 GMT -6
Surface temps could be an issue Wednesday depending on when the snow hits, but mid level temps look nice and cold. Lapse rates through the DGZ look steep as well. This has some kaboom potential for a portion of the area. That's one of the better look vorts I can remember coming through here in a while. GFS has PW values at 0.50" so this thing has some moisture to work with What portion of the area does it favor at this time? I couldn't say at this time. The GEFS members are all over the place. Maybe the euro and its ensembles can help out. The 12z National Blend of Models favored the metro and western counties fwiw |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2021 12:20:52 GMT -6
Euro just lost the wednesday system entirely
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2021 12:24:08 GMT -6
Euro just lost the wednesday system entirely Has a good looking vort just nothing gets going until it hits the east coast of course |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 23, 2021 12:33:27 GMT -6
Euro just lost the wednesday system entirely Has a good looking vort just nothing gets going until it hits the east coast of course The euro is so slow in moving the Monday system out, there isn’t enough space for the Wednesday energy. |
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Post by dmbstl on Jan 23, 2021 13:07:25 GMT -6
Is there any reason 44 was salt brined last night between River Des Peres and 55?
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2021 13:31:10 GMT -6
There’s a good chance of a light winter mix 12am-8am tomorrow through out the area
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Post by dmbstl on Jan 23, 2021 13:53:44 GMT -6
There’s a good chance of a light winter mix 12am-8am tomorrow through out the area But this? |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2021 13:56:32 GMT -6
No that is a separate storm, we have 0% chance of snow with that storm
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2021 16:08:36 GMT -6
Qe need Wednesday's system to get together faster, I at the moment am worried we do not have much hope. Maybe southeast missouri.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 23, 2021 16:19:09 GMT -6
Soo, anyone want to come up here, hang out with a dog and cats, snowblow my driveway, and have fun in the snow? I really wish I could work from home, but lab equipment can't run itself.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2021 17:46:46 GMT -6
Yep , it really does not look very organized or impressive for the metro, likely way south and East . This is not our year .
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2021 20:20:35 GMT -6
Might have to watch for some elevated boomers if the NAM is correct. Quite the low level inversion  |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 23, 2021 20:44:43 GMT -6
It’s sleeting in WashMO. What a nice surprise.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 23, 2021 21:02:23 GMT -6
It’s sleeting in WashMO. What a nice surprise. Won’t last long lol |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 23, 2021 21:03:38 GMT -6
All liquid sprinkles in st.peters. temp 37 dp 15.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 23, 2021 21:16:10 GMT -6
Steady sleet in Villa Ridge for the moment.
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lunchladyd
Junior Forecaster
On the Troy -Silex, Mo. line
Posts: 399 
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Post by lunchladyd on Jan 23, 2021 21:20:06 GMT -6
Sleeting in Silex.
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sals20
Wishcaster
Imperial, MO.
Posts: 92
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Post by sals20 on Jan 23, 2021 21:44:00 GMT -6
Very light sleet in Imperial.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2021 21:55:29 GMT -6
Light steady sleet temp 35 Dew point 19 in wentzville
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2021 21:56:44 GMT -6
Not much on the radar , definitely another rough week watching winter storms every where but here
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2021 22:15:02 GMT -6
Not much on the radar , definitely another rough week watching winter storms every where but here No reason to give up on Wednesday yet. Let’s see how it plays out. Certainly not a slam dunk but the potential is there for something |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 23, 2021 22:19:46 GMT -6
Yes your right I just looked at the gfs and gem , both look very similar and good for a 1-2” type storm. Which would be a beast here in St. Louis
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Post by amstilost on Jan 23, 2021 22:29:13 GMT -6
GFS has been consistent with the Wednesday system and cranking out a monster off the mid atlantic coast. Goes from a 1005mb low on midnight Thursday to a 958mb low 30 hours later. Looks like it bottoms out at 955mb at 36 hours. 42 mb in 24 hours..Kaboom. 47mb in 30 hours. Too bad it's a fish storm.
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 23, 2021 22:31:19 GMT -6
Sleet rain mixed in far NE St. Peters for about an hour now.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2021 22:31:59 GMT -6
Couple snow flakes mixed in with the sleet and rain in Arnold
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 23, 2021 22:33:06 GMT -6
Gfs and gem both are nice with a 3-5” type system pretty ouch area wide Wednesday into Wednesday night. Given the consistency and our range, this may be our best shot this year so far.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 23, 2021 22:44:34 GMT -6
Posting the GFS snow map for an obvious reason #stlsnowhole  |
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Post by weatherj on Jan 24, 2021 4:05:26 GMT -6
I'm actually getting some minor ice accretion on elevated surfaces over this way (Salem, IL) even with surface temperatures running 2-3* above freezing. I know it was in the forecast that a glaze of ice could occur, so I'm not totally surprised. Temps in the teens yesterday morning may have kept surfaces just a smidge colder than the air temperature. Roads are fine.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 24, 2021 6:53:54 GMT -6
So out next winter weather system of disappointment comes through the area on Wednesday correct? 🤔😉😊😂
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