bfsmith81
Wishcaster
Edwardsville, IL
Posts: 150 
Snowfall Events: Winter of 2023-2024:
01/05/24-1/06/24: 2.5" (Melted almost immediately)
01/12/24-1/13/24: 0.25"
01/15/24: 0.75"
01/18/24-01/19/24: 0.5"
02/16/24: 4.25"
Winter of 2023-2024 Total So Far: 8.25"
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Post by bfsmith81 on Jan 24, 2021 7:57:33 GMT -6
Posting the GFS snow map for an obvious reason #stlsnowhole  Laughed and then cried a little. Even the regional snow hole is beginning to close in but persists right over the St Louis metro area. This is one of the most depressing winters ever. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2021 8:11:52 GMT -6
I certainly wouldn’t fret over the modeled snow hole. This should be an area wide event, with some heavier bands embedded. That’s the way I see it right now. It’s good to see the models spitting out those heavier bands out in central MO - an indication it may get its act together in time as opposed to just to our east as it has been.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2021 9:53:09 GMT -6
12z runs of the NAM, NBM. ICON and RDPS look good for Wednesday.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2021 9:57:03 GMT -6
Nam, icon, and rgem look good for Wednesday. A little quicker with onset toward Wednesday morning. Gfs slid SE with it.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2021 10:02:50 GMT -6
Nam, icon, and rgem look good for Wednesday. A little quicker with onset toward Wednesday morning. Gfs slid SE with it. GFSv16 looks better |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 10:29:07 GMT -6
Ok gem looks good. Dare I say we look in a good spot as sometimes these systems tend north. Even verbatim se 2/3 of area shows 2 to 3 in many models.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2021 11:08:19 GMT -6
I was only kidding about the snow hole with the GFS map but the Ukie has snow to the north and south of STL Wednesday and nada in the middle
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2021 11:27:20 GMT -6
I hate to say it but this looks a lot like the stores a couple weeks ago, weaker lift , middle of the day and temps 32-34 nota good recipe for accumulation. I currently see the 1” or less type storm mostly on grassy and elevated. Some models have the snow hole around the metro . It would be better for a 6-8 hour delay of precipitation into the evening to help with accumulation otherwise I think it’s possibly another air snow event. The NWS has a 20% chance of rain and snow at my house .
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 24, 2021 11:44:54 GMT -6
Sorry guys... it may be me. I was in Omaha last week for their "best" weather of winter. A blizzard the week before I got there... and another bigger storm/blizzard there this week...after I'm gone. I bring "anti-snow" powers wherever I go  |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 24, 2021 11:48:22 GMT -6
Sorry guys... it may be me. I was in Omaha last week for their "best" weather of winter. A blizzard the week before I got there... and another bigger storm/blizzard there this week...after I'm gone. I bring "anti-snow" powers wherever I go So what you’re saying is......don’t get excited for Wednesday? |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 11:58:24 GMT -6
Some of the models seem to be collapsing the system pretty quickly tomorrow. Even our rainfall does not look as heavy in recent runs.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 12:01:50 GMT -6
Euro now only shows 3 to 5 inches by chicago. Storm just collapses fast.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 12:05:13 GMT -6
Mever mind it does keep light snow going in chicago to really add up but the intensity is definitely less, still gets you there but over 72 hours
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2021 12:10:20 GMT -6
Chicago proper looks to make out alright with the help of some lake enhancement. The system as a whole has trended weaker and more sheared out, becoming more of a powerhouse WAA event than mid-latitude cyclone. Anything that ejects lately just gets sheared to pieces
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 12:12:18 GMT -6
Thats why I in a way fear wednesday system has no chance of surviving. But we shall see.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2021 12:21:04 GMT -6
Chicago proper looks to make out alright with the help of some lake enhancement. The system as a whole has trended weaker and more sheared out, becoming more of a powerhouse WAA event than mid-latitude cyclone. Anything that ejects lately just gets sheared to pieces Looks great to me. Traded some QPF for a better thermal profile and time of day. A general 4-8 inches across Cook county with some isolated 10-12 inch lollipops based on lake enhancement is my guess. |
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2021 12:31:10 GMT -6
Chicago proper looks to make out alright with the help of some lake enhancement. The system as a whole has trended weaker and more sheared out, becoming more of a powerhouse WAA event than mid-latitude cyclone. Anything that ejects lately just gets sheared to pieces Looks great to me. Traded some QPF for a better thermal profile and time of day. A general 4-8 inches across Cook county with some isolated 10-12 inch lollipops based on lake enhancement is my guess. General 4-8. We get excited when it’s 1-2. Heck - .5-1! |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2021 12:37:38 GMT -6
Looks great to me. Traded some QPF for a better thermal profile and time of day. A general 4-8 inches across Cook county with some isolated 10-12 inch lollipops based on lake enhancement is my guess. General 4-8. We get excited when it’s 1-2. Heck - .5-1! I’ve seen like 4 inches this season, so don’t feel too bad. If, the gfsv16 and euro are right about this storm and next weekend, you can start being mad at us and our snow lol. I stand firm that winter will again linger through March, so STL should have a couple 2-5 inch types storm in it. Just probably the variety that are gone within 36 hours sadly. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 13:11:43 GMT -6
Based on rap we may have some sleet from the metro points north tonight.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2021 13:14:32 GMT -6
Euro stinks for Wednesday but it’s on its own at the moment.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 13:26:01 GMT -6
This is a very out on a limb thought. But as the east north east winds strengthen tonight, i believe we may see heavy sleet for an couple hours early tomorrow morning. The hrrr, and rap are starting to show a weaker system and a bit of a dry air reflux to lower temps a degree or two with wet bulbing. I may be totally wrong but I would not rule out a slushy suprise of sleet in the metro for a bit.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 14:37:29 GMT -6
Nam joined the euro with wednesday
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2021 14:40:28 GMT -6
The 18z NAM now has the north / south split with us high and dry on Wednesday. Now you basically have more models with out any snow than ones with snow. It kind of fits the pattern, we are cursed this year , we can’t buy an inch.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 14:49:43 GMT -6
Yes this winter is the most painful winter I have been in. I have had 0.4 inches the entire season. I am not even sure how they figure lambert has had 1.0 inches for the season.
I would be happy to double my snowfall by the end of winter and move onto spring lol.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2021 15:04:48 GMT -6
After Wednesday there’s nothing on the models through 10 days. There is some 12-15 fantasy snow on the gfs but that has yet to be true all winter. Most forecasters are calling for an above normal February. March is always such a crapshoot to get any snow in St. Louis, there are a million things that ha e to go right. This could definitely go down as one of the top snowless winters ever. Unless there is some radical SSW Change to the atmosphere we are most likely stuck with the positive epo and above normal temps with rain systems . Iowa is having an epic year , they have probably plowed well over 10 times since late October. We can’t get past a .25” dusting. We are running out of time for sure.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2021 15:10:33 GMT -6
In typical RDPS fashion it has a full on ice storm from STL points east tonight.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2021 15:57:06 GMT -6
The Meso models are close to some sleet / ZR put about 1-2 degrees to warm
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2021 16:05:16 GMT -6
Gfs bailed on Wednesday at 18z as well. Good grief.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2021 16:08:35 GMT -6
Gfs bailed on Wednesday at 18z as well. Good grief. We just can’t catch a break around here |
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 24, 2021 16:18:35 GMT -6
I've just seen the First geese flying south since winter started.
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