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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2021 16:21:55 GMT -6
Yes it’s all but done maybe be some random 32-35 degree air snow but not much else. Maybe the 4-5th time frame is our next chance for another weather let down . At least we have like 10 days with no shot so we don’t have to even look at the models.
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 24, 2021 16:21:58 GMT -6
At least it looks like the heaviest rain hopefully won't be in the metro, but just to the SE of the metro. The 18z GFS showed this.
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Post by mchafin on Jan 24, 2021 16:29:26 GMT -6
NWS talking about “record breaking” RAIN amounts. Nice
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2021 16:37:02 GMT -6
Hopefully we get some rain in the morning and then dry slotted in the afternoon
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Post by RyanD on Jan 24, 2021 19:23:33 GMT -6
People bailing on the Wed system 3 days out because of an off hour run. Unreal. It is too soon to give up on this winter.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2021 19:37:00 GMT -6
People bailing on the Wed system 3 days out because of an off hour run. Unreal. It is too soon to give up on this winter. Off hour runs are better than the previous on hour run. That narrative needs to die. Otherwise, totally agree winter isn’t over. STL will have legitimate chances moving forward |
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 24, 2021 20:41:50 GMT -6
People bailing on the Wed system 3 days out because of an off hour run. Unreal. It is too soon to give up on this winter. I agree Ryan. A lot can change. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2021 20:45:22 GMT -6
00z nam has nothing for Wednesday
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2021 20:46:02 GMT -6
When you see every single model take a hard left turn over the course of one or two runs it’s hard not to see where it’s heading...that’s not model worshipping or whatever the hell you want to call it. It’s watching the trend and realizing what’s most likely happening. Especially in a year like this one.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2021 20:55:58 GMT -6
I said it earlier today all but over for Wednesday, two more weeks will watch everyone to the north get another 6-12 inch storm while we get another rain and 34 degree event
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 24, 2021 21:03:12 GMT -6
I hate to admit it but the Euro seems to have come out of hibernation the last few weeks.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2021 21:14:19 GMT -6
Your right , I thought the same thing it’s done well with the last 3-4 storms
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2021 21:14:30 GMT -6
I hate to admit it but the Euro seems to have come out of hibernation the last few weeks. [br Pretty much nailed the band placement and general magnitude of impact 5+ days out. Incredible performance |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2021 21:19:19 GMT -6
I think the rgem is a pretty crappy model, but it looks good for the metro on Wednesday
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Post by landscaper on Jan 24, 2021 21:41:31 GMT -6
It looks like it’s only showing about .25”-.5” area wide snowfall, unless I’m missing something. And that’s falling in the middle of the day . We all know what that means.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 24, 2021 21:46:39 GMT -6
It looks like it’s only showing about .25”-.5” area wide snowfall, unless I’m missing something. And that’s falling in the middle of the day . We all know what that means. You are correct, switched from the nam to the rgem and apparently got kicked to the 18z run. My bad |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 24, 2021 22:21:11 GMT -6
My expectations for winter are low around here but this is just brutal
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 22:45:12 GMT -6
I see nothing of interest even on the terrible 768 hour model. Just rain amd febuary looks quite toasty which is fine with me. If its not going to snow lets make it spring.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 24, 2021 23:20:57 GMT -6
Models are really backing off. Now has a weak system not even below 1002 mb hardly in southern mo. Hrr looks very disorganized.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2021 0:45:17 GMT -6
Lol.
Told you all 10 weeks ago this winter would suck.glancing at the posts from my time off is humorous. " Next week has potential, next weekend could be something". Sure is something. Love the rain. Good to be back.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 25, 2021 1:53:25 GMT -6
Kind of wish I was back in Omaha today!
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Post by amstilost on Jan 25, 2021 2:02:09 GMT -6
Raining pretty hard 7 miles west of De Soto. Temp 36*. I sure wish I could get a band of snow to blow up just to the west of me and move in like the rain just did. I still have my hopes for the 2/6 storm.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Jan 25, 2021 3:56:31 GMT -6
Man its taking forever for rain to move into my area, Wth!! Bunch of dry air I guess. Lightning showing up per radar down south.
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Post by Labrat-O'Fallon IL on Jan 25, 2021 4:46:35 GMT -6
Kind of wish I was back in Omaha today! I do have 2 extra bedrooms. Lol. I let the dog out before I had to leave for work and it is an eerie calm. Creepy. |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 25, 2021 5:49:15 GMT -6
Pouring.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 25, 2021 5:51:51 GMT -6
34° and flat a$$ pouring.....kind of surprised with the anticipation of 1-2” of rain today that there wasn’t a flash flood watch posted.
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Post by snowjunky on Jan 25, 2021 6:06:08 GMT -6
Heavy a$$ rain in Ballwin. If only we were in the end of Ja.....never mind.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2021 6:06:15 GMT -6
gfs catching on to the persistent pattern even in fantasy ranges with cutters even into the cold air. this could signify ice in early feb, or springtime thunderstorms...but little in the way of meaningful snow through the first week in feb if the models were to verify...at the very least, very active pattern emerging so things will change in the models, but the upper midwest is looking to cash in on some copious snowfall next couple weeks.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2021 6:18:00 GMT -6
i think if anything, ppl are being realistic abt wednesday. it was never going to be a big snow tbw and with surface temps in the 30s, anything that accumulates wasnt going to stick around. nws clickpoint for me went from snow likely with accums of half inch or less to a 20% chance of rain and snow. seems practical at this point. at this point we need to will an arctic ams that stays in our region, but there is absolutely no sign of that. fwiw, as adj pointed out next winters progs show alaska to be above normal in temps. lol.
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Post by beaker - Dardenne Prairie, MO on Jan 25, 2021 6:35:48 GMT -6
thats a pretty razor sharp cutoff in forecasted snow totals in kansas...from 8 to 12 in marysville to less than 1 inch in manhatten, 2 counties south. i guess the balmy influence of tropical missouri has something to do with that.
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