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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2021 9:36:39 GMT -6
06z euro has snow falling across the area Wednesday. Probably just more air snow though
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2021 9:50:16 GMT -6
No month is kind to St. Louis in regards to significant snowstorms...
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 25, 2021 9:51:26 GMT -6
John Dee, a met I follow from the UP forecasted a back loaded winter for the upper Midwest. Looks to be the case so far.
I’m a bit surprised up here in SPI. The temp has actually fallen a degree, and snow has held strong all morning long. Maybe an inch to inch and a half on grassy surfaces and an inch on driveways and streets. If this storm is forecasted properly, the low should stop lifting here in the next few hours, flatten and move east. Based on the comma signature of the radar, I might be right on the battle line instead of being south of it.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 25, 2021 10:31:34 GMT -6
Canada still likes us Wed. but gfs has the void of no snow like the Icon did. Not great when you only have the Nam and the Canadians.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 25, 2021 10:40:41 GMT -6
Remember when we used to get backside snow after a day of cold rain....It at least made the rain a little more tolerable LOL
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2021 10:47:01 GMT -6
Remember when we used to get backside snow after a day of cold rain....It at least made the rain a little more tolerable LOL That’s when systems use to actually wrap up instead of shearing out |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2021 10:58:44 GMT -6
15z RAP throwing the Canadian models and NAM some support for Wednesday
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 25, 2021 11:00:08 GMT -6
15z RAP throwing the Canadian models and NAM some support for Wednesday UKMET brings the swath of light accumulations back into the fold as well. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 25, 2021 11:01:14 GMT -6
That’s so true, I remember many storms where it rained heavy and as the low passed to the south east we switched to heavy sleet for 10 minutes then over to big heavy snow flakes that would start piling up in minutes. Oh those were the good ole days ! We would have put salt trucks loaded with salt and sitting on our lots waiting for the rain to sleet change over. We would start salting and usually have to start plowing because the snow was coming down so hard.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 25, 2021 11:01:54 GMT -6
Maybe we can squeeze a nice solid inch out
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2021 11:28:15 GMT -6
Wednesday looks extremely disorganized in the mid-levels...I wouldn't be surprised if that's yet another non-event.
This winter is bizzare.
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twocat
Junior Forecaster
North St. Peters off Cave Springs
Posts: 395 
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Post by twocat on Jan 25, 2021 11:44:38 GMT -6
I don't think we'll have to worry about a drought this summer now especially if we stay active like this. Trying to stay positive here, it's tough. we are actually 2 plus inches below normal since december on qpf. this rain could wipe that out, and certainly by next weekend put us above normal or come very close. if the long range models are accurate with the snow build up north, and cpcs long leads for above normal rain here, we could actually see some minor river flooding this year. its not so much abt the snow anomalies up north in terms of seasonal totals, but the fact that the winter is back loaded for those locales coupled with the impending high activity in this part of the country. I watered last week and the week before because I thought it was unusually dry. Temps were in the 50s. Like they seem to be a lot this "winter". The Davis on the roof in North St. Pete has recorded 1.05 for this event. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 25, 2021 12:08:12 GMT -6
Surprisingly the Euro paints 1-2" from STL points SE Wed. More the further south you go. No huge storm here but it is a trend for some snow at least.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 25, 2021 12:38:43 GMT -6
Late this weekend might have some potential with the shift south in a system around that time.
Some backside potential if the storm doesn’t get completely shredded
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 25, 2021 12:49:57 GMT -6
Late this weekend might have some potential with the shift south in a system around that time. Some backside potential if the storm doesn’t get completely shredded I was going to mention the southward shift but there's no reason to think that storm will work out any differently than all the previous ones, really. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2021 13:26:10 GMT -6
Whatever is left of the surface low looks to track south of the area with the current system and we get nothing but rain. This winter is a curse
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2021 13:50:59 GMT -6
18z Hrrrr looks solid Wednesday
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Post by weatherj on Jan 25, 2021 13:52:24 GMT -6
18z Hrrrr looks solid Wednesday Good for a few inches in the metro? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2021 13:58:25 GMT -6
18z Hrrrr looks solid Wednesday Good for a few inches in the metro? Ya here's the snow depth product. Still snowing along and east if the river at this time
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 25, 2021 14:20:51 GMT -6
12km nam is back to looking like a steaming pile at 18z.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 25, 2021 14:27:19 GMT -6
12km nam isnt terrible. Still 1 to 2 inches in metro
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 25, 2021 14:27:26 GMT -6
12km nam is back to looking like a steaming pile at 18z. Hi res NAM is on board though |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 25, 2021 14:28:20 GMT -6
Thats what i meant sorry, hi res
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2021 14:33:39 GMT -6
Almost 2 inches of mid 30 degree rain. We could have had 10 to 20 inches of glorious snow. Instead we have 3 inches of gross dog paw inducing mud.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2021 14:37:54 GMT -6
Here's how this will go. When we have a system that could bring snow it'll be just air snow or be. Dry light and disorganized. But when a stronger better looking system comes along it will rain. Even if it's colder than when it snows. This will continue to be the case. Like Wednesday, it MIGHT snow..all for nothing. Next weekend will be another soaker though. Maybe there's decent snow in a parallel universe. Nah probably get screwed in all of those too.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 25, 2021 14:48:45 GMT -6
You got that right, that about sums it up...this is not our year, really last year was totally not our year but we had a lot of little 1” or less storms we could go out and salt this year is brutal!
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 25, 2021 15:09:14 GMT -6
It is pretty remarkable to see a cohesive low on the 240 hour EPS. We've talked about this before where there are some types of flow regimes that are more predictable than others. Maybe this is one of those highly predictable patterns. I don't know. Obviously there is still plenty of time for things to change but the data currently suggests this hypothetical cyclone will take an unfavorable track.
And yes I know we still have things to watch that aren't in the fantasy range. I'm just really surprised to see ensembles locking into something 10+ days out. You definitely don't see that very often.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 25, 2021 15:12:28 GMT -6
It looks like another Iowa/Nebraska/Minnesota/Wisconsin mauler , add it to the 10- 15 nice storms they have already had this year
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 25, 2021 15:14:13 GMT -6
This disco is lol worthy.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 25, 2021 15:14:23 GMT -6
We will need to watch that snow pack for spring flooding.
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