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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 26, 2021 22:07:20 GMT -6
Soooo I feel pretty good about 1-2" tomorrow. The potential does look to be there for an isolated 3" south of 44 but that probability seems low atm Especially when a few days ago it was supposed to be either a little rain or nothing at all. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 26, 2021 23:31:46 GMT -6
HRRR continues to look juicy in the morning.
Overdone? Probably, but interesting regardless
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Post by RyanD on Jan 27, 2021 0:39:37 GMT -6
Glad I remained positive about this little storm a few days ago rather than giving up. Some of the negativity in this forum is depressing. We all love snow but some on here act like their entire happiness is created by seeing ice on the ground. Most people hate snow which I don't understand though so I get it to a degree why many of us are upset. My friend told me today that "snow is for kids and I'm an adult"
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Post by ams3389 on Jan 27, 2021 1:21:54 GMT -6
Our KY3 friends in Springfield thinking 1-3 for us up to STL. I have my doubts
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2021 1:56:09 GMT -6
HRRR continues to look juicy in the morning. Overdone? Probably, but interesting regardless Likely, but its not alone... globals have beefed up too..I can buy more of a widespread 1"...maybe a few 2"... but this system's footprint is small and speed is fairly quick... so resident time in any one spot for accumulating snow will be 3 to 4 hours. The prudent thing is to nudge the forecast up... to a general 2" or less across the viewing area...but seems likely most will measure at least a few 10ths...with most ~ 1. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2021 1:58:22 GMT -6
It should come down at a decent clip. Based on model trends the past couple cycles I'd tend to agree. May get a burst of moderate snow at the peak for an hour or so. This thing is flying, so it won't last long, but could be a nice shot of snow while it lasts. Or it could completely split or collapse over us, so there's that, lol. All very true.. so now it comes down to messaging... and timing. Bulk falls 8am to noon. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2021 2:23:08 GMT -6
A hint of an old fashioned baroclinic leaf showing up now on satellite to our west.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2021 2:41:23 GMT -6
Too bad this thing is moving so fast. This weekends system will be slower and last much longer. That's why it'll be rain.  |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 27, 2021 2:42:57 GMT -6
Looking more closely at the track of the vort max and prime forcing... there may be a region of 2-3 inches down south... from Iron County up through Perry County.
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Post by TK on Jan 27, 2021 3:25:30 GMT -6
Yes - Winter Weather Advisory now posted for Metro - Keeps getting better and better!
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Post by perryville on Jan 27, 2021 3:45:11 GMT -6
Looking more closely at the track of the vort max and prime forcing... there may be a region of 2-3 inches down south... from Iron County up through Perry County. I like the sound of that . Paducah NWS has upped their #’s and that falls in line with your thinking. |
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 27, 2021 6:11:02 GMT -6
Flurries
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 27, 2021 6:16:45 GMT -6
I apologize for being combative, rude, and disrespectful. Anyways.... Where is everyone? This little system is revving up it's engine as I type this. Looking like 3-4 hours of moderate snow maybe we a quick period of near heavy snow. This is with overnight belov freezing and temps below freezing for the event. FINALLY THE GROUND WILL BE WHITE. The latest HRRR with 10-1 ratios drops 3-4" right up 44 through the metro. The 0.35" QPF is impressive but so is the lift.  There potentially will be a wall of snow on radar in a few hours that's going to look beautiful and is not going to fall apart before it smashes through St Louis. that is some serious lift as the vorticity moves into South Central Missouri. the models are also showing a little bit of interaction phasing with another piece of small energy coming out of the northwest. our little system kind of slows and pivots in a way before it gets picked up by the larger long-wave trough and starts moving east Southeast.  This sounding below comes from the high-res nam. It's around the East St Louis Illinois area about 45 minutes into the accumulating snow. Almost a trowel feature in there right through the lower dgz. There is Strong lift and saturation literally about 20,000 ft deep through the atmosphere. This is a great sign that we will see heavy snow from this for a Time.  |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Jan 27, 2021 6:19:14 GMT -6
Snow falling in MO’Fallon
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2021 6:19:54 GMT -6
Hey friv good to see ya back.
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Post by bororug on Jan 27, 2021 6:20:56 GMT -6
Snow falling just SW of Desoto. Solid Flake size. Temp: 29
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 27, 2021 6:23:53 GMT -6
Hey friv good to see ya back. likewise. You are looking good for 3" today. Moderate snow will be breaking out in Union within the hour. Basically before sunrise. FINALLY going to look like winter for a few days |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 27, 2021 6:29:46 GMT -6
A couple stray flurries by the belleville Metrolink.
I know consistent snow isn't going to move into bellville probably for another couple hours but it's pretty clear this system is having no problem Saturating the atmosphere.
I am going to miss most of the storm probably all of it I work for the St Louis blues and today I have to work all day on the event level cleaning the blues locker room and all that. Because of covid once we get there we're not allowed to leave the event level until our shifts over and I don't get off until 4:00 so I'm going to have to sneak out the side security door to take a peek.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 27, 2021 6:30:45 GMT -6
Few flakes fluttering freely from afar.
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Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 27, 2021 6:34:36 GMT -6
Few flakes fluttering freely from afar. Sounds like the start of a poem. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 27, 2021 6:35:45 GMT -6
Steady light snow Earth City
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Post by amstilost on Jan 27, 2021 6:51:15 GMT -6
light snow and 29*7 miles west of De Soto. Good to see the SREF QPF and snowfall #'s edging upward for a change. QPF is up to just under .20" and snowfall is up to just under 1.5" for STL. Good sign for southerners I would 'assume'.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 27, 2021 6:55:11 GMT -6
light snow and 29*7 miles west of De Soto. Good to see the SREF QPF and snowfall #'s edging upward for a change. QPF is up to just under .20" and snowfall is up to just under 1.5" for STL. Good sign for southerners I would 'assume'. danger looking really good for southerners it looks like the Mac snow band will be southeast of interstate 44. Also I can report we have steady light snow in Belleville. Good flake size.. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 27, 2021 6:55:14 GMT -6
On the Springfield, MO radar you can see an impulse of increased radar returns overspread the site heading northeast. Almost looks like a wave rolling through. Is that an area of stronger/intense lift that the radar is picking up.
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 27, 2021 7:03:38 GMT -6
Had a light snow shower and now have a very light dusting 28-29° bouncing back and forth
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304 
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Post by padlur on Jan 27, 2021 7:06:06 GMT -6
Cars and raised surfaces dusted pretty good in Ballwin, everything else is just wet, but small flakes falling nicely
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 27, 2021 7:08:32 GMT -6
This system is straight up booking it. Radar looks good but I think the speed is going to hurt totals quite a bit. Hoping that won’t be the case and we get that 2” but I’ll be happy just to see that 1”. Light snow now steadily falling.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 27, 2021 7:08:56 GMT -6
Snow starting to accumulate on decks, cars, and roofs.
Still steady but light
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Post by amstilost on Jan 27, 2021 7:09:21 GMT -6
That 'wave' or whatever it is, is now showing up in the western side of STL composite radar. Nexrad |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 27, 2021 7:11:02 GMT -6
30 DBZ now developing to our SW on radar.
Expect that to expand and move on
Into the immediate metro between 8-9AM
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