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Post by mchafin on Feb 15, 2021 11:41:38 GMT -6
Just watched Chris on Fox2..saying 5-8" for STL...wasn't sure if that was additional beyond what we have now, or is that storm total? Probably storm total. Dry air is limiting snow growth/ratios what's the likelihood that the snow growth will increase this afternoon? It's pouring now, but these flakes are tiny. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 11:42:59 GMT -6
The same posters always act like a bust is occurring before these storms even get going over us...every single storm it's the same thing. Relax and enjoy this...it's playing out pretty much exactly like it was supposed to. Heaviest amounts were always supposed to be SE of STL with the heavier snow moving into the Metro after the lunch hour. Radar strongly supports that.
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Post by TK on Feb 15, 2021 11:44:18 GMT -6
Probably storm total. Dry air is limiting snow growth/ratios what's the likelihood that the snow growth will increase this afternoon? It's pouring now, but these flakes are tiny. Everybody take a deep breath...We have 6 more hours to go and this will intensify....Trust Friv...Brtn....and, of course, Chris.... |
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 15, 2021 11:44:46 GMT -6
Going with 4.2” as official report. My house sits in a large field on a small ridge, so all my measuring boards are susceptible to drifting and/or being bare. Had to work down to the most reasonable average
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Feb 15, 2021 11:45:09 GMT -6
Moderate to heavy snow finally pushing almost to i70 in Missouri. We won't be getting to 12" with these small flakes. But 8-10" is still likely. If we see better snow growth after NOON that could change Noon on the dot looks to be when we should see the growth |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2021 11:45:15 GMT -6
This band moving into the immediate metro is the real deal
Pouring snow with very low visibility
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Post by REB on Feb 15, 2021 11:46:37 GMT -6
Measuring here is futile.
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Post by landscaper on Feb 15, 2021 11:49:37 GMT -6
Yes you guys are getting crushed in Jefferson county on the MoDOT cams
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 11:50:25 GMT -6
Radar is stacked all the way to Fayetteville and Tulsa and still backbuilding. Areas along/N of 70 will do well into this evening with the 700mb low/vort max tracking through.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 15, 2021 11:50:56 GMT -6
what's the likelihood that the snow growth will increase this afternoon? It's pouring now, but these flakes are tiny. Everybody take a deep breath...We have 6 more hours to go and this will intensify....Trust Friv...Brtn....and, of course, Chris.... I'm not freaking out, I'm just asking |
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Feb 15, 2021 11:51:17 GMT -6
Not going to bother trying to measure snow today, I’m going to sit back and watch the birds swarm my feeders today. So glad we all got bullseyed for once. Sit back and enjoy the ride.
Oh yeah...moderate salt shaker snow in WashMO.
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sals20
Wishcaster
Imperial, MO.
Posts: 92
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Post by sals20 on Feb 15, 2021 11:51:55 GMT -6
Snow intensity has picked up the last 15 minutes in Imperial.
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Post by mchafin on Feb 15, 2021 11:52:18 GMT -6
And I concur, the snow is just blowing off my table! I can't measure anything, but I can tell you this: My driveway is now completely covered to the height of the snow in the grass....I'll attempt a measurement after I shove some lunch in me. This is absolutely beautiful.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Feb 15, 2021 11:54:54 GMT -6
I will give the NWS some credit .... my point forecast was for an inch and a half before noon and that’s what I received.... now it’s says 5.7 by 6 ..... let’s see what happens:)
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Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 15, 2021 11:54:55 GMT -6
Heaviest snow from noon to 6pm. That will work great.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 15, 2021 11:56:38 GMT -6
A little side diversion for a moment. Eglin AFB radar VWP is showing 45kts of 1km shear and 450 m2/s2 of 1km SRH. Cluster of storms over the Gulf and will move into the Florida panhandle with MLCAPE potentially climbing up to 1500j/kg. The kinematic environment should move downstream as well. A strong tornado may be possible there this afternoon. Edit: And while I was typing a watch was issued.
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Post by TK on Feb 15, 2021 11:57:11 GMT -6
From NWS OK City for midweek storm: I think this is good news for us as the low would appear to be more NW with that dry slot? I predict a repeat for us if this is correct.
1) The snowfall with the first wave might be a somewhat narrow,
west to east band with sharp gradients to the north and south.
Currently, it appears the highest snowfall amounts might be near
the I-40 corridor with the first wave. However, this could easily
shift north or south.
2) There is a chance parts of the area could quickly become dry
slotted as the second wave moves through. If this occurs, the dry
slot would be most likely across western north Texas--but could
be farther northeast.
Given these uncertainties, we will maintain a Winter Storm Watch
for now. The current expectation is on average 4 to 7" of snowfall
with perhaps lesser amounts northwest and southwest and higher
amounts east central and southeast. As with the previous event,
please do not focus on specific amounts. Rather, plan for another
period of dangerous travel conditions
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 11:59:52 GMT -6
Deformation coming together nicely across S/central MO and N AR...heaviest snowfall in the Metro should be tied to that when it lifts through late this afternoon or early evening...although the current Fgen band moving north will bring solid snow rates as well.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2021 12:00:32 GMT -6
Still a long way to go. That gap near Popular Bluff is just a result of poor radar coverage  |
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Post by birdsonthebat (MO'Fallon) on Feb 15, 2021 12:02:41 GMT -6
There seems to be more traffic than I expected given today is a holiday, but not too many accidents. Those that had less than road ready vehicles with bad tires were taken care of last week. 😂
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padlur
Junior Forecaster
Ballwin(by the golf course)
Posts: 304
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Post by padlur on Feb 15, 2021 12:03:18 GMT -6
Finally under some good action
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Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 12:03:53 GMT -6
2.25" snow in protected area, 2 on the yard table, snow box is useless That sure seems low  Just eyeballing it looks like 3-4" but the drifting of new snow makes is hard to measure. I live more towards the south side of Waterloo though since we moved last summer. I'm sure we have 5" total counting the old snow. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 12:05:36 GMT -6
The HRRR is way off.
All the models are slightly East with their output.
Compared to what is happening
The system hasn't started to pull east yet as the rate the models expect
Especially the short range.
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Post by pbc12871 on Feb 15, 2021 12:06:00 GMT -6
The intensity is definitely picking up in Ballwin.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 12:14:35 GMT -6
It's pouring here.
Flakes are small.
Probably in part from weak snow growth.
But also turbulence.
The winds from the surface up turn almost 360 from the surface to 500mb.
Also the NAM SIM RADAR IS EASY 50-75 MILES TO FAR EAST VERSUS REAL LIFE.
ALSO THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO BE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT(950-850MB)
There is weak WAA picking up from 975mb to 825mb the next few hours
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Post by dschreib on Feb 15, 2021 12:15:25 GMT -6
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 15, 2021 12:16:02 GMT -6
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 15, 2021 12:17:15 GMT -6
Visibilities have bottomed out, definitely the heavy snowfall rates of the day
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Feb 15, 2021 12:17:48 GMT -6
It's pouring here. Flakes are small. Probably in part from weak snow growth. But also turbulence. The winds from the surface up turn almost 360 from the surface to 500mb. Also the NAM SIM RADAR IS EASY 50-75 MILES TO FAR EAST VERSUS REAL LIFE. ALSO THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO BE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW LEVEL LIFT(950-850MB) There is weak WAA picking up from 975mb to 825mb the next few hours So... what does it mean? |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2021 12:19:05 GMT -6
Radar is money right now
Hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow ahead
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Just eyeballing it looks like 3-4" but the drifting of new snow makes is hard to measure. I live more towards the south side of Waterloo though since we moved last summer. I'm sure we have 5" total counting the old snow.
