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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 12:19:39 GMT -6
12z NAM looks pretty loaded with the mid-week storm...fits the more typical GYB model for the region which supports another significant snowfall event. Getting a bit ahead of things, but it looks encouraging. The NAM did quite well with the current storm.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334 
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Post by bob on Feb 15, 2021 12:19:45 GMT -6
Has anyone looked at the Wednesday storm?
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Post by Steven Penrod- HLEW on Feb 15, 2021 12:20:39 GMT -6
Has anyone looked at the Wednesday storm? Every hour my god lol |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2021 12:21:45 GMT -6
12z NAM looks pretty loaded with the mid-week storm...fits the more typical GYB model for the region which supports another significant snowfall event. Getting a bit ahead of things, but it looks encouraging. The NAM did quite well with the current storm. Not much support for the NAM solution unfortunately. I haven't looked at any ensembles yet though |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 12:21:52 GMT -6
We are getting 2-4" Wednesday.
We might get another 2-8" Thursday if things shake out right
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 12:22:23 GMT -6
12z NAM looks pretty loaded with the mid-week storm...fits the more typical GYB model for the region which supports another significant snowfall event. Getting a bit ahead of things, but it looks encouraging. The NAM did quite well with the current storm. Not much support for the NAM solution unfortunately. I haven't looked at any ensembles yet though Rap supports the nam so does rgem |
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 15, 2021 12:22:39 GMT -6
2.25" snow in protected area, 2 on the yard table, snow box is useless That sure seems low  Just eyeballing it looks like 3-4" but the drifting of new snow makes is hard to measure. I live more towards the south side of Waterloo though since we moved last summer. I'm sure we have 5" total counting the old snow. Just measured again (hasn't been that long!) and at right under 3". Edit: This protected area isn't drifting at all on top of the table I'm measuring from. The table out in the yard has drifting |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 12:22:49 GMT -6
12z NAM looks pretty loaded with the mid-week storm...fits the more typical GYB model for the region which supports another significant snowfall event. Getting a bit ahead of things, but it looks encouraging. The NAM did quite well with the current storm. The lift with that storm if it happens will give huge flakes |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 12:23:27 GMT -6
Dry air loosing the battle now in Brighton with visibility dropping again. Deep lift overspreading most of the region for the next 6hrs+
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 12:24:08 GMT -6
That sure seems low Just eyeballing it looks like 3-4" but the drifting of new snow makes is hard to measure. I live more towards the south side of Waterloo though since we moved last summer. I'm sure we have 5" total counting the old snow. Just measured again (hasn't been that long!) and at right under 3". I just measured 10 mins ago in 20 spots all over where it didn't look too drift and there is 4-5" of new powder. Are you sure wind isn't playing a factor |
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Post by RyanD on Feb 15, 2021 12:24:08 GMT -6
Has anyone looked at the Wednesday storm? Serious question, have you thought of trying to learn how to read the models? They are SUPER easy to read on Pivotal Weather. You don't have to have a lot of weather knowledge to read the snowfall and qpf maps. |
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 15, 2021 12:25:30 GMT -6
Tiny flakes here in St. Peters, but a lot of them. It's adding up, not quickly but it is. Just an estimate right now but pushing 2".
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Post by Snowman99 on Feb 15, 2021 12:25:58 GMT -6
do we know what the ratios have been so far? Lambert had .08 liquid in past 6 hrs..what was snow amount?
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 12:26:39 GMT -6
The WAA portion seems like almost a lock Wed...looks like several inches possible from that. Some models are shearing out the main wave on Thurs, some are not. Given the trend we saw with the current storm, I'd tend to give a nod to the more organized/wrapped up solutions like the NAM.
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bob
Junior Forecaster
Posts: 334
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Post by bob on Feb 15, 2021 12:26:50 GMT -6
Wii’s try that site
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Post by amstilost on Feb 15, 2021 12:27:25 GMT -6
The radar that snowstorm posted pg. 31 really starts to show the 'conveyor belt' getting it's act together over Springfield and backing NW into KS. That looks good from my eyes.
Edit: Still super small flakes but vis still under 800'. Temp up to 4* 7 miles west of De Soto
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Post by cozpregon on Feb 15, 2021 12:28:01 GMT -6
From what I could tell... 2" new 3" on the ground here near Grant's Farm
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Post by ElKay23 - Columbia, IL on Feb 15, 2021 12:28:15 GMT -6
Has anyone looked at the Wednesday storm? Serious question, have you thought of trying to learn how to read the models? They are SUPER easy to read on Pivotal Weather. You don't have to have a lot of weather knowledge to read the snowfall and qpf maps. The first one's free, hehe |
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Post by perryville on Feb 15, 2021 12:29:02 GMT -6
Sitting at 5” storm total. This correlate with you KFAM and Stgoutdoors?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 15, 2021 12:31:01 GMT -6
3.5" storm total in Arnold
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Post by snowjunky on Feb 15, 2021 12:32:08 GMT -6
Has anyone looked at the Wednesday storm? Every hour my god lol My I ask, what is going on that you ask about the Midweek storm every model run? |
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 15, 2021 12:32:49 GMT -6
Been sitting here watching the progress of the 850mb circulation on mesoanalysis. Barely moved in the last 4 hours...just creeping along.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 15, 2021 12:33:58 GMT -6
Sitting at 5” storm total. This correlate with you KFAM and Stgoutdoors? Yea, at least. I’ll also echo what Todd said that the current visibility is as low as I’ve seen it. Just tremendous. Hopefully the big flakes can take hold. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 12:35:07 GMT -6
The 12Z ggem drops like 4-8" for Wednesday and Thursday.
The euro, gfsv16, and ukmet only have the weak WAS wave.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 15, 2021 12:37:02 GMT -6
Been sitting here watching the progress of the 850mb circulation on mesoanalysis. Barely moved in the last 4 hours...just creeping along. The whole system has slowed to a crawl...700mb low still out in E KS. Gonna be some double digit totals for sure. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 12:37:39 GMT -6
Flake size will get bigger before the end.
The DGZ the last two hours literally bisects almost the bottom 15,000 feet of the column.
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Post by toddatfarmington on Feb 15, 2021 12:37:39 GMT -6
Sitting at 5” storm total. This correlate with you KFAM and Stgoutdoors? Last measured hour ago at 4.2 |
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Post by dschreib on Feb 15, 2021 12:38:42 GMT -6
Been sitting here watching the progress of the 850mb circulation on mesoanalysis. Barely moved in the last 4 hours...just creeping along. It's been gorgeous. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Feb 15, 2021 12:40:06 GMT -6
The name has the vort max currently phasing and dragging heights down behind it because it's strengthening and tilting negative
While moving NNE until 5-7pm when it starts moving ENE faster.
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Post by jmg378s on Feb 15, 2021 12:40:17 GMT -6
Been sitting here watching the progress of the 850mb circulation on mesoanalysis. Barely moved in the last 4 hours...just creeping along. The whole system has slowed to a crawl...700mb low still out in E KS. Gonna be some double digit totals for sure. Southeast of metro for sure. Some of our southern members reporting 5+" already. |
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Just eyeballing it looks like 3-4" but the drifting of new snow makes is hard to measure. I live more towards the south side of Waterloo though since we moved last summer. I'm sure we have 5" total counting the old snow.
