|
|
Post by snowjunky on Feb 22, 2021 8:04:50 GMT -6
Did anyone else get the Accu-Ollie famous Windchill chart? I wrote in to get one and asked for everyone at Channel 4 to sign it and they all did. It was so cool.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Feb 22, 2021 10:16:46 GMT -6
for some reason this was in my youtube recommended list
a gem.Wow that’s a blast from the past. Ollie something or other? Ollie Raymond I call him Accu-Ollie, too |
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Feb 22, 2021 10:35:11 GMT -6
Do we have the potential for one more cold snap like the one we just had? Or not enough time left to build and release. Before spring kicks in.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2021 10:38:44 GMT -6
Do we have the potential for one more cold snap like the one we just had? Or not enough time left to build and release. Before spring kicks in. Cold snap, yes...severe arctic outbreak...highly unlikely. |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Feb 22, 2021 10:57:16 GMT -6
Good thing we got ours when we did. Split flow/cut off energy looks to dominate for the foreseeable future.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Feb 22, 2021 13:29:11 GMT -6
Well the weather is getting better again. The Board posts are starting a couple hours apart again.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2021 14:05:44 GMT -6
18z HRRR has a high of 70 in STL tomorrow while the 18z NAM has a high of 38
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Feb 22, 2021 14:31:10 GMT -6
18z HRRR has a high of 70 in STL tomorrow while the 18z NAM has a high of 38 HRRR will be closer. Almost all snowpack is gone from my yard, and NAM seems to still think that the snowpack will be still largely intact. 70 is still a stretch, but with mid 50s achieved today when the NAM was forecasting 40s means it likely at least 10-15 degrees too cold. Conditions tomorrow are very favorable for over-performing temperatures. Southwest winds, plenty of solar heating and non-existent snowpack, but moist/saturated ground from frost layer preventing water from absorbing properly will likely prevent that 70 but 60s are a certainty, maybe even 65-68, but while 70 isn't impossible it's a lofty goal. |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2021 14:31:36 GMT -6
18z HRRR has a high of 70 in STL tomorrow while the 18z NAM has a high of 38 Strange. I seriously doubt we get anywhere near 70* but the NAM is way too cold. 850 temps are warmer during the afternoon with a strong southerly component...no way we don't warm 15-20*+ from AM lows in the mid-30s. I'd bet on 60*...or close to it. |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2021 14:40:11 GMT -6
Looks like the NAM keeps fog locked in all day explaining why it doesn’t budge temperatures tomorrow. Euro has a high in the low 60s which sounds about right
|
|
|
|
Post by maddogchief on Feb 22, 2021 15:03:50 GMT -6
70 at the airport is likely
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Feb 22, 2021 15:08:05 GMT -6
I'm guessing the problem is that HRRR shows little if any snow cover in Missouri. I just looked at its snow depth product on the ESRL site and it looks like it could be off to me.
On the other hand...I just looked out my window and I'm seeing a lot of grass so...
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Feb 22, 2021 15:17:02 GMT -6
Our snow cover here in Arnold is pretty much gone. Satellite imagery shows much of Mo is rapidly losing snow cover except northern parts of the state
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 22, 2021 15:21:17 GMT -6
Snow cover is a moot point anymore. Mr fishentioned the models are likely off because of snow cover data on his disco.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 22, 2021 15:29:05 GMT -6
Woth no snow cover im now going with 73 tomorrow
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 22, 2021 15:36:17 GMT -6
Just throwing that number out there or is there some reasoning behind it
|
|
|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Feb 22, 2021 16:06:13 GMT -6
Just throwing that number out there or is there some reasoning behind it why not 75! |
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2021 16:07:28 GMT -6
We'll have an excessive heat warning by tomorrow...
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Feb 22, 2021 16:15:17 GMT -6
A few snow pockets left where it's shaded in my front yard but most of the snow is gone. What a difference a week makes.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Feb 22, 2021 16:53:18 GMT -6
I had some concerns about fog/stratus last week when forecasting for this week. It was one of the main reasons I played it very conservatively with the warm-up forecast for today and tomorrow. It certainly remains a concern, with all the ambient RH floating in the air following the great midwest meltdown over the past 24 hours. The ground is cold and very wet still. However, it would take an expansive development of deep stratus and fog tonight to significantly curtail a warmup tomorrow... at least to the levels implied by the NAM. Accounting for all of that I jumped past all but the HRRR guidance this morning and pushed our forecast to 60. This is one of those psychological forecasts... 60 sounds warm enough. If we hit 65... nobody will notice or care. If we get stuck at 50 in stratus... everyone will complain. The 60 was a nice compromise I thought. It implies warmer, but with some wiggle room if AM stratus slows us down a bit. I will say this too... the wind direction at the surface is not as favorable for a big warmup as it was today... if you believe the NAM. The NAM has a straight southerly wind.. anf the GFS is not much different...which is not nearly as effective a warmer as the southwest wind shown on the HRRR. This also gave me reason to not go nuts with the warmup.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 22, 2021 17:08:18 GMT -6
I had some concerns about fog/stratus last week when forecasting for this week. It was one of the main reasons I played it very conservatively with the warm-up forecast for today and tomorrow. It certainly remains a concern, with all the ambient RH floating in the air following the great midwest meltdown over the past 24 hours. The ground is cold and very wet still. However, it would take an expansive development of deep stratus and fog tonight to significantly curtail a warmup tomorrow... at least to the levels implied by the NAM. Accounting for all of that I jumped past all but the HRRR guidance this morning and pushed our forecast to 60. This is one of those psychological forecasts... 60 sounds warm enough. If we hit 65... nobody will notice or care. If we get stuck at 50 in stratus... everyone will complain. The 60 was a nice compromise I thought. It implies warmer, but with some wiggle room if AM stratus slows us down a bit. I will say this too... the wind direction at the surface is not as favorable for a big warmup as it was today... if you believe the NAM. The NAM has a straight southerly wind.. anf the GFS is not much different...which is not nearly as effective a warmer as the southwest wind shown on the HRRR. This also gave me reason to not go nuts with the warmup. HRRR mixing out all the way up to 700mb with the SW/W wind up the column |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Feb 22, 2021 17:11:44 GMT -6
I'll go 64
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 22, 2021 18:13:59 GMT -6
Lets all throw numbers out who ever is closest gets a pat on the back lol.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Feb 22, 2021 18:24:32 GMT -6
What is the heat equivalent to what we had the last two weeks. I keep wondering what the Summer will bring us.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Feb 22, 2021 18:26:31 GMT -6
Summer should be between 175 amd boiling, i think that should do it lol
|
|
|
|
Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Feb 22, 2021 21:16:30 GMT -6
Temp will be 67* tomorrow at lambert 💯 ☀️
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Feb 22, 2021 21:22:11 GMT -6
I'm going with 62.
|
|
|
|
Post by red12 Hillsboro,mo on Feb 22, 2021 21:25:11 GMT -6
66
|
|
gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
|
Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Feb 22, 2021 21:31:24 GMT -6
I’ll go 68...WOW!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Feb 22, 2021 21:38:34 GMT -6
Temp is barely dropping tonight. I'll go 67.
|
|
