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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 25, 2021 22:17:22 GMT -6
/photo/1
Not good at all
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Post by amstilost on Mar 25, 2021 22:38:06 GMT -6
WTH is going on with NWS radar. Why can't I get a damn 10 minute loop out of Peachtree. The radar still appears to be operating. I know this is the 3rd or 4th time I have commented on the new NWS radar, but can anyone defend this crap. If there is a technical reason I don't know about I will back off, but nothing I have seen out of their "new update" has impressed me.
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Post by unclesam6 on Mar 26, 2021 2:54:33 GMT -6
WTH is going on with NWS radar. Why can't I get a damn 10 minute loop out of Peachtree. The radar still appears to be operating. I know this is the 3rd or 4th time I have commented on the new NWS radar, but can anyone defend this crap. If there is a technical reason I don't know about I will back off, but nothing I have seen out of their "new update" has impressed me. Radarscope. You can get it on all platforms. That crap from the NWS isn't even worth wasting your time on. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Mar 26, 2021 5:16:59 GMT -6
What am I missing about the wind threat? Doesn't look like it's going to materialize along the river Turns out both the GFS and EURO were wrong...the EC got the track down pretty close but was overdone with the strength. The GFS was too far south with the low. And the wind forecast busted hard for sure...not sure we even topped 20mph. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 26, 2021 7:48:34 GMT -6
What am I missing about the wind threat? Doesn't look like it's going to materialize along the river Turns out both the GFS and EURO were wrong...the EC got the track down pretty close but was overdone with the strength. The GFS was too far south with the low. And the wind forecast busted hard for sure...not sure we even topped 20mph. Yeah... that was a hard bust for sure on the wind last night. It was a fairly strong and consistent signal... it just came together too slowly. They had some decent winds in eastern IL down to the Ohio River... but not nearly the downward mixing of the fast 925/850 winds that I expected. |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Mar 26, 2021 7:56:40 GMT -6
Not that it’s a big deal but it looks like the highest risk area was a tad north yesterday..... they highlighted northern Alabama and it set up more in south central Alabama ...... many people have a long rough road ahead
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2021 8:51:00 GMT -6
Soundings tomorrow don't look half bad for supercells and even tornadoes across the NW half of the viewing area. Strangely enough the SPC has the SE half of the area under the slight risk
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2021 9:00:04 GMT -6
Steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading the area tomorrow as well. A hail threat is certainly there  |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 26, 2021 9:45:02 GMT -6
Not that it’s a big deal but it looks like the highest risk area was a tad north yesterday..... they highlighted northern Alabama and it set up more in south central Alabama ...... many people have a long rough road ahead Yeah I don't like calling something a bust when people die and we may not have all the reports in yet. But if we are to objectively grade ourselves and strive to do better the 800am high risk outlook placement appears it will not verify (the 1130 high risk placement was only a little better).  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2021 9:58:56 GMT -6
The high risk yesterday was to far NW. I feel like the models overestimating how quickly the low yesterday would deepen played a role in the worst severe weather being displaced further SE. Here's the PPF from yesterday's tornado reports (so far). No doubt a high risk verified, just not in the spot the modeling and SPC thought.  |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 26, 2021 9:59:53 GMT -6
Latest HRRR/NAM/GFS all seem to make the case for pulling the day 2 slight risk a bit further northwest to include the metro. Lets see...I don't think our forecast area has had a severe watch yet so for some this could be our first watch-worthy organized severe weather event.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 26, 2021 10:56:58 GMT -6
Latest HRRR/NAM/GFS all seem to make the case for pulling the day 2 slight risk a bit further northwest to include the metro. Lets see...I don't think our forecast area has had a severe watch yet so for some this could be our first watch-worthy organized severe weather event. The HREF is showing increased probabilities tomorrow for strong UH tracks up 44 into the metro
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 26, 2021 11:38:21 GMT -6
SPC pulled Slight Risk farther north a bit on it's latest outlook issued a minute ago.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Mar 26, 2021 12:35:06 GMT -6
Outside shot at some snow April 1st. The cold is there, but the low might not develop in time.
Interesting look on the 12z euro though.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 26, 2021 13:15:17 GMT -6
The high risk yesterday was to far NW. I feel like the models overestimating how quickly the low yesterday would deepen played a role in the worst severe weather being displaced further SE. Here's the PPF from yesterday's tornado reports (so far). No doubt a high risk verified, just not in the spot the modeling and SPC thought. I have said it before and will say it again... I truly believe SPC tries to get too cute with their outlooks. We aren't as good as their super small outlook bubbles have people believe. They did a GREAT job identifying the magnitude of the setup... but they missed on the location. Did that have any material impact on how regular folks approached the day??? probably not. Overall, despite the miss on location I have no doubt their efforts and strong language triggered an awareness in that region that saves lives. |
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Post by cozpregon on Mar 26, 2021 20:11:22 GMT -6
NAMs have good lift and CAPE thru the hail zone early tomorrow evening
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 27, 2021 9:04:54 GMT -6
Metro looks to be in a good spot today for storms later. Hodographs are pretty straight and storms look to grow upscale quickly into a line segement/clusters. Tornado threat isn't zero but hail and wind are the bigger threats.   |
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 27, 2021 9:25:41 GMT -6
According to the 12z NAM And 12z HRRR, the line of storms will pretty much develop right on top of the immediate METRO and move east. Not a whole lot for folks north and west of STL. Guess we will see what happens.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 27, 2021 9:37:36 GMT -6
low level moisture may be obstructed by the Ozarks and deeper... with richer moisture working around the rim...and up into southern Illinois. Initial development may struggle in MO until it reaches better moitsure in Illinois.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 27, 2021 9:47:41 GMT -6
low level moisture may be obstructed by the Ozarks and deeper... with richer moisture working around the rim...and up into southern Illinois. Initial development may struggle in MO until it reaches better moitsure in Illinois. Where is the boundary setting up... curious if I can BBQ later or not. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Mar 27, 2021 10:07:27 GMT -6
The feont is out in NW Missouri at the moment. It has a ways to go yet.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Mar 27, 2021 10:14:27 GMT -6
WRF, ARWv2 (A variant of the the WRF), and the NMM seem to have the best handle on storms today par Chris' Thinking. Starting up around the western burbs into the metro then escalating in strength and coverage once into the Metro east and Illinois.
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Post by REB on Mar 27, 2021 10:44:48 GMT -6
Grass is mowed......againl Staining of floor begins this afternoon. Hoping for no hail since furniture is in garage.
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Post by mosue56 on Mar 27, 2021 11:53:32 GMT -6
Will it drag through St Francois county at the tail end, or is most of the activity in the metro?
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Mar 27, 2021 13:41:30 GMT -6
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 27, 2021 13:49:55 GMT -6
You beat me to it 920!
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Post by Snowman99 on Mar 27, 2021 14:05:16 GMT -6
920 has all the sites hooked up to his brain, all he has to do is think about it and the post shows up. He's cool that way.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Mar 27, 2021 14:06:58 GMT -6
920 has all the sites hooked up to his brain, all he has to do is think about it and the post shows up. He's cool that way. Haha |
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Post by jmg378s on Mar 27, 2021 14:13:03 GMT -6
Starting to see some returns showing up on radar east of Columbia.
Looking at station plots around the area seeing dewpoints mainly in the low 50s with large dewpoints depressions up to 20-25+. Somewhat marginal conditions as far is severe storms go. But ACARS sounding from Lambert about an hour ago showed about 75kts of 6km shear while SBCAPE seems to have climbed to about 1000 j/kg...though probably not the best balance with Bulk Richardson Number in the 10-15 range. We'll see if this development is able to mature into severe storms in the near term or not.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Mar 27, 2021 14:39:50 GMT -6
Is the development further west than expected?
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