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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 16, 2021 21:02:55 GMT -6
How can anyone be positive the tri-state didn't cycle and lift?
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Post by Jeffmw on Dec 16, 2021 21:21:19 GMT -6
What were the final wind gusts for the St. Louis area at the Airport;
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 16, 2021 23:31:01 GMT -6
So I heard you like wind reports What a massive area of real estate where a high risk would of verified That’s about as top end of a wind event you’ll see  Once again... this seems to point out the fact that we in the weather enterprise (not just SPC) simply are not good enough at what we do to try and breakdown the severe weather risk into five different categories. Nor does the public understand what the difference between them all really means. We are really good at figuring out where the areas of heightened concern are... but we clearly cannot discern the difference between what should be a "High Risk" vs. "Marginal" vs. "Enhanced" with any regularity. To be clear... the outlooks for yesterday and last Friday did a great job identifying the regions of risk. But they failed when it came to categorizing the risk properly within their self-prescribed and all too rigid criteria... IMO. |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 16, 2021 23:48:49 GMT -6
How can anyone be positive the tri-state didn't cycle and lift? We can't. But here is an excerpt from a recent study on the damage of the Tri-State Tornado: Johns, R. H., D. W. Burgess, C. A. Doswell III, M. S. Gilmore, J. A. Hart, and S. F. Piltz, 2013: The 1925 Tri-State tornado damage path and associated storm system. Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology. So basically more than 1 tornado likely over the span of 235mi (probably 5 tornadoes if you parse the above summary precisely). Likely at least 151mi continuous and probably at least 174mi was continuous. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 16, 2021 23:57:01 GMT -6
If you're a complete severe weather nerd like me, this is an interesting article to read through. Lots of good info about history of tornadoes in the STL metro stormhighway.com/st-louis-tornadoes-severe-storms.phpSome interesting tidbits from the article: - If we count all of the tornadoes that have ever been recorded in the St. Louis region from 2021 back to 1800, the number is 325.
- 49 of these tornadoes occurred inside of, or passed through, St. Louis County.
- 14 of the tornadoes occurred inside of, or passed through, St. Louis City.
- If we start at 1950 when more consistent tornado recordkeeping began, the metro area-wide number is 271.
- The 1950-2021 total results in an average of 3.8 tornadoes per year in the metro area.
- From 1950-2021, a tornado has affected St. Louis City an average of once every 8.9 years.
- From 1950-2021, a tornado has affected St. Louis County an average of once every 2 years
- A third of the violent (F4/EF4) tornadoes on record, and one-fifth of the strong tornadoes (F3/EF3) happened during the months of meteorological winter (December 1 through February 28). Fall also brings another prominent spike in activity.
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 17, 2021 3:42:46 GMT -6
If you're a complete severe weather nerd like me, this is an interesting article to read through. Lots of good info about history of tornadoes in the STL metro stormhighway.com/st-louis-tornadoes-severe-storms.phpSome interesting tidbits from the article: - If we count all of the tornadoes that have ever been recorded in the St. Louis region from 2021 back to 1800, the number is 325.
- 49 of these tornadoes occurred inside of, or passed through, St. Louis County.
- 14 of the tornadoes occurred inside of, or passed through, St. Louis City.
- If we start at 1950 when more consistent tornado recordkeeping began, the metro area-wide number is 271.
- The 1950-2021 total results in an average of 3.8 tornadoes per year in the metro area.
- From 1950-2021, a tornado has affected St. Louis City an average of once every 8.9 years.
- From 1950-2021, a tornado has affected St. Louis County an average of once every 2 years
- A third of the violent (F4/EF4) tornadoes on record, and one-fifth of the strong tornadoes (F3/EF3) happened during the months of meteorological winter (December 1 through February 28). Fall also brings another prominent spike in activity.
Very very interesting indeed! Thanks for sharing! |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 17, 2021 6:07:50 GMT -6
Some slushy ice build up out here.
Cut it real close on temps.
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 17, 2021 8:15:21 GMT -6
Here is the latest drought map. We are starting to see moderate conditions developing in our area especially to the southwest.  |
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 17, 2021 9:10:35 GMT -6
If only it was 10° colder
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2021 9:43:11 GMT -6
Here is the latest drought map. We are starting to see moderate conditions developing in our area especially to the southwest. Big a$$ part of the country in dry or drought conditions. Wow |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 17, 2021 9:44:46 GMT -6
Just had some sleet mixing in with a pretty heavy down pour…..
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Post by House Springs ~ DeerKiller ~ on Dec 17, 2021 9:53:21 GMT -6
Here is the latest drought map. We are starting to see moderate conditions developing in our area especially to the southwest. Big a$$ part of the country in dry or drought conditions. Wow They just had several feet of snow in places and tons of rain on the west coast wonder if that's been included ? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2021 10:31:53 GMT -6
If only it was 10° colder Another classic STL cold rain with a ping of sleet...wetbulbs running about a degree of two above freezing. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 17, 2021 10:46:59 GMT -6
Absolutely pouring. Looking to the SW it’s gonna be a wet afternoon
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2021 10:50:14 GMT -6
Hearing some rumbles of thunder here in Arnold
Sitting at 36°
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2021 11:01:44 GMT -6
Lightning, thunder, and heavy rain now
It is December right?
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2021 11:13:43 GMT -6
Lightning, thunder, and heavy rain now It is December right? Could have woke from a coma, and the calendar could be flipped to April..for the whole month, and I wouldn't have batted an eye. |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 17, 2021 11:49:54 GMT -6
Such a classic overrunning setup for our area....without the sub freezing temps.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 17, 2021 12:27:49 GMT -6
This event today was initially a 'potential' snow event on the models 10-12 days ago right??? Where can you get past model runs a week or 2 old? I only see 3 days of past runs on Pivotal Weather.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2021 13:45:30 GMT -6
This event today was initially a 'potential' snow event on the models 10-12 days ago right??? Where can you get past model runs a week or 2 old? I only see 3 days of past runs on Pivotal Weather. I think twisterdata had "archived" model runs but not sure how far back they go. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 17, 2021 15:28:04 GMT -6
Models all look terrible through 15 days , yes it will be a little colder at times , but still will average above normal with no real chance of frozen precipitation in site . The gfs has been playing it’s 10-15 out Arctic cold dump that it losses once with in 10 days so that’s nothing new. Hopefully something happens in January
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2021 15:31:50 GMT -6
euro has highs in the mid-upper 60s on the 25th. Merry Christmas
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 17, 2021 15:44:18 GMT -6
Models all look terrible through 15 days , yes it will be a little colder at times , but still will average above normal with no real chance of frozen precipitation in site . The gfs has been playing it’s 10-15 out Arctic cold dump that it losses once with in 10 days so that’s nothing new. Hopefully something happens in January yep, ensembles are crappy. Just a constant ridge..or semi ridge over us the whole time practically. Looks like very cold air will be in western Canada and maybe going into the nw. |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 17, 2021 15:53:02 GMT -6
Well, looking at what was a promising looking radar an hour ago, I bet this is what any snow will look like when it gets near my place. There was a very large enhancement on the radar just south of Vichy at 1pm and looks to take a very strange dive to the southeast to just duck under most of JeffCo. WTH. I really need the rain.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2021 15:53:18 GMT -6
euro has highs in the mid-upper 60s on the 25th. Merry Christmas Ya the euro operational run has Lambert hitting 70° on Christmas. The National Blend of Models has a high of 54° and low of 37° |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 17, 2021 15:55:36 GMT -6
This event today was initially a 'potential' snow event on the models 10-12 days ago right??? Where can you get past model runs a week or 2 old? I only see 3 days of past runs on Pivotal Weather. tropicaltidbits.com goes back 7 days. I'm not aware of any free sources that go back any further than that with usable graphics. You could do it the hard way and download the raw files from the NOAA servers here and load them into a viewer like the IDV. |
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 17, 2021 16:35:25 GMT -6
Well the southern area is sure catching up on some rain today. Been on the northern edge so far.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 17, 2021 16:39:59 GMT -6
This event today was initially a 'potential' snow event on the models 10-12 days ago right??? Where can you get past model runs a week or 2 old? I only see 3 days of past runs on Pivotal Weather. I think twisterdata had "archived" model runs but not sure how far back they go. Thanks |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 17, 2021 16:46:02 GMT -6
This event today was initially a 'potential' snow event on the models 10-12 days ago right??? Where can you get past model runs a week or 2 old? I only see 3 days of past runs on Pivotal Weather. tropicaltidbits.com goes back 7 days. I'm not aware of any free sources that go back any further than that with usable graphics. You could do it the hard way and download the raw files from the NOAA servers here and load them into a viewer like the IDV. Thanks.....the 'hard way'...I have enough trouble doing it the 'easy way'. |
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Post by bear1 on Dec 17, 2021 17:05:51 GMT -6
Unless I got dandruff in my eyeballs, I'm seeing some flakes mixed in the little rain we're getting now. temp at 34° ??
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