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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 17, 2021 17:12:49 GMT -6
Unless I got dandruff in my eyeballs, I'm seeing some flakes mixed in the little rain we're getting now. temp at 34° ?? Radar does look a bit "snowy" down that way with bright banding. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 17, 2021 17:19:15 GMT -6
Unless I got dandruff in my eyeballs, I'm seeing some flakes mixed in the little rain we're getting now. temp at 34° ?? Radar does look a bit "snowy" down that way with bright banding. Mid level temps are pretty toasty. Could be sleet maybe |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 17, 2021 18:04:08 GMT -6
Looking at 18z run temps at 3pm Christmas Day  A model temp of 78* in Salina, KS, I believe. That sure doesn't look favorable for anything that looks or feels like Christmas. Has us at 60* and KC at 68*....But wait, there's more......OKC at 82*. There is quite a big expanse of cold air in Canada....2 weeks. |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 17, 2021 23:15:43 GMT -6
Moderate liquid falling and 38*.......as Max would say...."Missed it by that much"
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 17, 2021 23:30:13 GMT -6
Saw a graphic on Twitter. Gulf is pretty warm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2021 1:03:48 GMT -6
Things you don’t want to see during the winter: This  Not a single GEFS member has a damn flake here the next 10 days |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2021 7:58:25 GMT -6
what do the EPS show lol
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Post by John G -west belleville on Dec 18, 2021 8:06:34 GMT -6
The lack of winter is a real bummer for us, but the one positive is that natural gas consumption has to be down. That's a win for the gas bill especially in the face of rate increases due to surges in the price of natural gas
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2021 10:02:58 GMT -6
Not much better. It goes out through 15 days so we get some digital snow toward the end.  |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 18, 2021 10:29:33 GMT -6
Unreal temps this month and esp next weekend! Hoping for a snowy Jan and Feb
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2021 10:33:35 GMT -6
Not much better. It goes out through 15 days so we get some digital snow toward the end. i think i'll vomit now, thanks. lol |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2021 10:51:41 GMT -6
Lots of cold is going to unload into the northwestern US as we head towards the last days of 2021 and into 2022.
It’ll be interesting to see if storms ride along that boundary and where the exact boundary sets up.
Have to assume STL ends up in the messy middle with rain, ice, and snow heading into 2022.
Let’s see if the setup can make it into the hour 168-192 range instead of 240-264.
A stretched PV could be in play as well.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2021 11:25:53 GMT -6
IF the pattern can establish itself properly we can have some bouts of ice and snow as the the arctic air slowly oozes southeast over us. Stuff that used to happen 30 years ago lol. OR, it could all go down the plains and OKC gets ice while we sit at 34 and rain. OR it just never gets here and it's 60-70 constantly.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2021 11:31:53 GMT -6
Starting to get worried its going to be a "Merry Torchmas" this year.
The record high on Christmas is 71
I think we have a non-zero chance at breaking that
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2021 11:43:05 GMT -6
Starting to get worried its going to be a "Merry Torchmas" this year. The record high on Christmas is 71 I think we have a non-zero chance at breaking that lol, we need a mulligan for this month. Dave M definitely does. |
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 18, 2021 11:49:03 GMT -6
Let’s get through New Years without ice please! People are still traveling. Western KY is still cleaning! They deserve some mild weather!
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2021 13:00:08 GMT -6
Wow, look at that cold pouring into the northwestern US on the 12z euro (-35 in Montana and -9 in South Dakota).
Set up looks nice by day 10 for some serious winter weather.
If we can get to Tuesday with this type of look, I’ll be pretty excited.
Christmas is shot for sure (very mild), but maybe we’ll actually be tracking a storm by then even if we have turn the AC on.
Hell, the euro is very close to goin off on us by the 27th/28th.
Let’s repost those ensemble runs on Tuesday and see how we are feeling
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 18, 2021 13:22:18 GMT -6
Wow, look at that cold pouring into the northwestern US on the 12z euro (-35 in Montana and -9 in South Dakota). Set up looks nice by day 10 for some serious winter weather. If we can get to Tuesday with this type of look, I’ll be pretty excited. Christmas is shot for sure (very mild), but maybe we’ll actually be tracking a storm by then even if we have turn the AC on. Hell, the euro is very close to goin off on us by the 27th/28th. Let’s repost those ensemble runs on Tuesday and see how we are feeling i agree with this post and endorse it |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 18, 2021 13:46:08 GMT -6
I still suspect the period between Xmas and NYD will bring a significant pattern shift. What that equates to here...no telling. But if that arctic airmass is legit on the EC, that usually sets up an oozing cold/overrunning pattern as it slowly spills SE.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 18, 2021 14:05:59 GMT -6
Did anyone else experience the dirt that was left behind the gusty winds and light rain on Wednesday night? Even after Friday’s rain there is still dirt/dust left over.  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2021 14:26:18 GMT -6
Did anyone else experience the dirt that was left behind the gusty winds and light rain on Wednesday night? Even after Friday’s rain there is still dirt/dust left over. Dust from the plains transported by the high winds I saw it reported as far away as Michigan |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 18, 2021 14:35:16 GMT -6
The fact that the Euro and Gem are now supporting the GFS with the pattern shift tells me it might actually be legit this time.
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Post by Tilawn on Dec 18, 2021 14:51:18 GMT -6
Did anyone else experience the dirt that was left behind the gusty winds and light rain on Wednesday night? Even after Friday’s rain there is still dirt/dust left over. Dust from the plains transported by the high winds I saw it reported as far away as Michigan That’s what I was figuring it was from. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 18, 2021 14:56:03 GMT -6
The end of the EPS run looks favorable for cold across much of the country. This is 360hrs out so still way out there but it’s a good sign  |
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Post by jmg378s on Dec 18, 2021 15:10:27 GMT -6
I'm not trying to beat a dead horse here, but I'm genuinely confused. Either the KY tornado survey points haven't been fully published or the survey didn't even attempt to find the most intense damage. For example, there are 8 points listed for Dawson Springs of which all were basically buildings with partial exterior wall collapse or roof damage. Highest rated damage in Dawson Springs was EF3 with trees of all things being the highest rated damage in town...yes trees. But when I look at areal video I see numerous structures will total destruction and some wiped completely down to the slab. What am I missing? www.weather.gov/pah/December-10th-11th-2021-Tornado |
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Post by yypc on Dec 18, 2021 15:41:07 GMT -6
I'm not trying to beat a dead horse here, but I'm genuinely confused. Either the KY tornado survey points haven't been fully published or the survey didn't even attempt to find the most intense damage. For example, there are 8 points listed for Dawson Springs of which all were basically buildings with partial exterior wall collapse or roof damage. Highest rated damage in Dawson Springs was EF3 with trees of all things being the highest rated damage in town...yes trees. But when I look at areal video I see numerous structures will total destruction and some wiped completely down to the slab. What am I missing? www.weather.gov/pah/December-10th-11th-2021-TornadoProlly no J bolts to tie those structures down to the slab. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 18, 2021 22:59:33 GMT -6
The difference in Christmas morning temperatures on the 00z gfs and 00z ggem are comical.
If the gfs is right we are in the 60s.
If the ggem is right, we are in the 20s.
Regardless, at least both models have the big cold coming into the US after Christmas.
I’m targeting the 28th for the region’s first accumulating snow.
Chicago will shatter its record for latest measurable snow (surely along with numerous other areas in the Midwest).
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Post by ndolan387 on Dec 18, 2021 23:45:00 GMT -6
The difference in Christmas morning temperatures on the 00z gfs and 00z ggem are comical. If the gfs is right we are in the 60s. If the ggem is right, we are in the 20s. Regardless, at least both models have the big cold coming into the US after Christmas. I’m targeting the 28th for the region’s first accumulating snow. Chicago will shatter its record for latest measurable snow (surely along with numerous other areas in the Midwest). The GEM was the medium to long range winner last winter if I remember correctly. Happy to see some frontogenesis on the models instead of a boring massive ridge. Who knows where that frontal boundary will end up around Christmas, but somethings going to give eventually! |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 19, 2021 0:12:37 GMT -6
How's this for some possible records that 'could' be broken....... 1953-54,54-55,55-56 seems to be futility for first snow...Wow, 3 years in a row. First column is snowfall greater than .10", second column is snowfall greater than 1". >.10" >1" 1953/54 0.3 13-Jan 2.0 2-Mar 1954/55 0.8 18-Jan 3.0 25-Mar 1955/56 1.0 18-Jan 1.0 18-Jan 1957/58 0.4 3-Dec 11.2 31-Jan Nice way to end futility. 2012/13 0.1 20-Dec 1.2 31-Dec Then there is last year... 2020/21 0.3 16-Dec 2.3 27-Jan Considering last year was also a La Nina year, can we really 'expect' much more? Hell, right now the NAO has gone slightly negative, -1, then the GFS shows a bounce up to near neutral, then crash to under -2 possibly. Shouldn't or wouldn't we expect colder weather than the 60's being forecast by the GFS to show up in that time frame around Christmas? I know, the tough questions.  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 19, 2021 6:10:50 GMT -6
Things you don’t want to see during the winter: This Not a single GEFS member has a damn flake here the next 10 days to be fair, the new year continues to look promising. |
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A model temp of 78* in Salina, KS, I believe. That sure doesn't look favorable for anything that looks or feels like Christmas. Has us at 60* and KC at 68*....But wait, there's more......OKC at 82*. There is quite a big expanse of cold air in Canada....2 weeks.
