|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 19, 2021 6:11:53 GMT -6
The difference in Christmas morning temperatures on the 00z gfs and 00z ggem are comical. If the gfs is right we are in the 60s. If the ggem is right, we are in the 20s. Regardless, at least both models have the big cold coming into the US after Christmas. I’m targeting the 28th for the region’s first accumulating snow. Chicago will shatter its record for latest measurable snow (surely along with numerous other areas in the Midwest). We're going on 17 days already here in the Springs. |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 19, 2021 8:53:20 GMT -6
I keep getting a DNS resolution error on the site on my laptop but I'm able to get on with my phone. It says a page that is on cloudflare network is unavailable.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 19, 2021 8:57:13 GMT -6
I went to DuckDuckGo and searched
morethanweatherSTL and it came up with a link for Holiday Season 2021 and it opened right up. But when I click on it from my bookmarks I get the DNS server error, and I was just signed on to it.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 19, 2021 8:58:14 GMT -6
Okay, nevermind, I just deleted that old bookmark and replaced it with the one that just came up and all seems to be fine. I don't know what went on there.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2021 10:50:29 GMT -6
+40° temperature anomaly Christmas Eve night on the GFS No thanks  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2021 10:55:48 GMT -6
hey maybe we'll break another record high at midnight. Christmas miracle
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2021 11:03:20 GMT -6
12z gfs and ggem both still advertising the big time cold oozing down from the northwest.
Tons of variation in timing and storms, but overall pattern looks to become much better the last couple days of 2021 into 2022.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Dec 19, 2021 12:20:44 GMT -6
12Z GEFS is now at 60F for Christmas afternoon. That's a 10F jump over the last 4 runs.
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Dec 19, 2021 12:32:11 GMT -6
Anyone got the EPS forecast temps for Christmas? I usually use AccuWx for that but the EPS messed up for some reason on there.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2021 12:33:58 GMT -6
The Euro has parts of TX and OK pushing 90F on Christmas Eve
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 19, 2021 12:38:25 GMT -6
Anyone got the EPS forecast temps for Christmas? I usually use AccuWx for that but the EPS messed up for some reason on there. This is from the 00z run last night
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2021 12:49:36 GMT -6
12z euro has that big time cold building in from the northwest still too.
That is great news
|
|
|
|
Post by rb1108 on Dec 19, 2021 12:56:49 GMT -6
I haven't posted really since moving to SoCal. I am hoping to see some snow when I am back for the holiday. It has been colder here in LA than in STL and Chicago at times recently, which is ridiculous. Here's to hoping we see that pattern shift soon! Happy Holidays to everyone in the Corner!
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 19, 2021 13:10:48 GMT -6
12z euro has that big time cold building in from the northwest still too. That is great news seems to always be day 9 or 10. euro has faster frontal passage christmas, making it a bit cooler that day. Still warm |
|
|
|
Post by bear1 on Dec 19, 2021 13:20:55 GMT -6
Does that mean, it'll be 60° instead of 61°  |
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 19, 2021 13:31:01 GMT -6
12z euro has that big time cold building in from the northwest still too. That is great news seems to always be day 9 or 10. euro has faster frontal passage christmas, making it a bit cooler that day. Still warm That’s why I want to see the Tuesday runs. Should be hours 144-168 that have the cold and parade of storms building. We shall see |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 19, 2021 18:38:49 GMT -6
I drove through the tornado damage in Kentucky today ….. I have never seen F-4 damage in person before and it literally took my breath away …… these people are going through so much … it’s so sad
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 19, 2021 23:42:05 GMT -6
Surprised no one has mentioned it but the 0z GFS has our....well, a pattern flip it looks like. Granted this is 384 hours but it hasn't come close to showing anything like this. Not that it is necessarily good for us. East-Central LA should be quite happy. I get .10" of snow and EC LA gets 8+. South Central TN has 12" of fanatasy snow too. This could be the flip we were asking/hoping for.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 20, 2021 0:20:31 GMT -6
The NWS blend of models is now advertising a high of 67° of Christmas Eve
The record high is 73°
|
|
|
|
Post by dschreib on Dec 20, 2021 6:23:38 GMT -6
Roads are a disaster this morning. Check your traffic and plan accordingly.
|
|
|
|
Post by toddatfarmington on Dec 20, 2021 7:13:57 GMT -6
Dipped down to 19* this morning at KFAM. Frost is so heavy it’s even covering the trees, almost looks like a morning after a ice storm.
|
|
|
|
Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 20, 2021 7:45:49 GMT -6
Dipped down to 19* this morning at KFAM. Frost is so heavy it’s even covering the trees, almost looks like a morning after a ice storm. Yep 19 here as well and frost coating everything. |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 20, 2021 7:53:31 GMT -6
Dipped down to 19* this morning at KFAM. Frost is so heavy it’s even covering the trees, almost looks like a morning after a ice storm. Yep 19 here as well and frost coating everything. My thermo says 18* this morning. I looked at 06zGFS before logging on here trying to determine the likelyhood of a record warm Dec. Not having Pivotal Weather Plus I gave up trying to 'figure it out' manually. Anyway, I noticed that the intialization of the GFS at 06z had us at 33* and at 12z was 32*. That is quite a miss unless I am reading something wrong. |
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Dec 20, 2021 8:04:20 GMT -6
This morning's traffic is proof St. Louis doesn't even need a winter storm for the roads to become a disaster. Just take some cold air and the right amount of humidity. For added fun add the warm moisture coming off the major rivers. Tada... instant black ice.
|
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 20, 2021 8:22:52 GMT -6
According to Preliminary Monthly Data the average temp for Dec. so far is 48.1* I know it's pitiful but it is 'something' to track. 06z Total Snowfall looks more like what we have had. (Not forecasting it, just a messenger) No more LA snow. You can see the northern outline of our persistent ridge in the snowfield at hr384.
49.8* 1889 1888-1889 is ranked #2 of Top 10 El Nino's
48.3* 1877 1877-1878 is ranked top #1 of Top 10 El Nino's
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Dec 20, 2021 10:28:03 GMT -6
Going back to the tornado ratings...I was doing some research on this. It is well known that there is a reporting bias in tornado counts. This bias occurs because of the proliferation of doppler radar and storm chasers. The number of tornadoes probably has not substantially changed over the years, but our ability to document them has. Everybody knows this. What isn't so well known is that there is a bias in the way significant tornadoes are reported. This bias occurs for a few reasons. First, the Fujita scale began use in 1974. Tornadoes prior to 1974 were retroactively rated by meteorology students primarily from newspaper reports. This created an overrating bias during this period because there was minimal if any expert scrutiny of the reports. Second, beginning in 2003 the NWS implemented a policy that required a specially trained team to assign the high ratings. An unintended consequence of is two fold: 1) the branch office underrated tornadoes to avoid the hassle of calling out the special team and 2) by the time the special team arrives the evidence required to justify higher ratings could have disturbed. As a result of all of this significant tornado counts early in the record are overrated and those late in the record are underrated. Third, only damage indicators are used for the ratings. This disqualifies other forms of evidence like observations of the wind speed provided by radars. This caused the 2013 El Reno tornado which was unquestionably had high end EF5 intensity to get assigned an EF3 rating only. The effect of all of this is that the trend of tornado counts appears to increase when it probably hasn't and the trend of significant tornado counts appears to decrease when it probably hasn't.
How does this effect the long track supercell tornado ratings from December 10th? I don't know. It seems like the higher end ratings have been getting harder and harder to come by. I think these special teams have adopted a more skeptical mindset which probably influenced the ratings in this case as well. I'm not saying that's a bad thing. Skepticisms is always welcome. Another issues is the length of the track. Did they adequately assess the entire length or miss damage indicators? And finally, did delays in the assessment lead to disturbance of evidence that prevented an EF5 rating?
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2021 11:52:06 GMT -6
One of the biggest things to remember is that the EF scale is a damage rating scale... NOT a tornado stregth scale. It rates the damage and from that, you can infer how strong the tornado may have been. But you cannot rate what you cannot see. There is no doubt there would be many more EF5's if they hit something. But if a tornado capable of EF5 damage hits a corn field... it's an EF1. Unless something has changed radar measurements are not directly factored in. The fact that Tim Marshall was on the KY tornado and it was rated EF4... tells me all I need to know. He is the best of the best.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 20, 2021 11:53:41 GMT -6
This morning's traffic is proof St. Louis doesn't even need a winter storm for the roads to become a disaster. Just take some cold air and the right amount of humidity. For added fun add the warm moisture coming off the major rivers. Tada... instant black ice. Acrually... frost. Black ice is different... it comes from melting and refreezing of fallen precipitation. Same difference to drivers. Sliiiiick. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Dec 20, 2021 12:12:51 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 20, 2021 12:29:11 GMT -6
This morning's traffic is proof St. Louis doesn't even need a winter storm for the roads to become a disaster. Just take some cold air and the right amount of humidity. For added fun add the warm moisture coming off the major rivers. Tada... instant black ice. Acrually... frost. Black ice is different... it comes from melting and refreezing of fallen precipitation. Same difference to drivers. Sliiiiick. We had to put a percent chance for bridge frost on every one of our Illinois DOT forecasts during the winter. We would actually have to put them in a "warning" if we expected it to occur and they would treat accordingly. Our pavement temperature forecast algorithm was quite good on forecasting these occasions. |
|
