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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 21, 2021 11:23:06 GMT -6
I'd say clouds and/or light precip will keep temps in check on Xmas...but definitely very mild Fri and Sat.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2021 11:24:01 GMT -6
Canadian is not cold at all either. Fascinating.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2021 11:25:01 GMT -6
At this point may as well break the record on Saturday. let's do Friday too. F it.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 21, 2021 11:49:45 GMT -6
I mean that is a lot of cold air stuck up in western/central Canada. Eventually the dam will be break you'd think. But with our luck when it does it'll surge all the way to the Gulf coast and give the beaches an historic storm. You would think so. However, I remember saying that over and over one of those years during the no snow stretch of 2016-2019. But it never came. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2021 12:05:55 GMT -6
Wow, look at that cold pouring into the northwestern US on the 12z euro (-35 in Montana and -9 in South Dakota). Set up looks nice by day 10 for some serious winter weather. If we can get to Tuesday with this type of look, I’ll be pretty excited. Christmas is shot for sure (very mild), but maybe we’ll actually be tracking a storm by then even if we have turn the AC on. Hell, the euro is very close to goin off on us by the 27th/28th. Let’s repost those ensemble runs on Tuesday and see how we are feeling Well it’s better than being completely blank  |
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 21, 2021 12:40:26 GMT -6
I don't have the daily max for the 12Z ECMWF yet, but based on the 18Z frame I think it is close to a record for Christmas.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2021 12:47:15 GMT -6
I don't have the daily max for the 12Z ECMWF yet, but based on the 18Z frame I think it is close to a record for Christmas. Looks close but I think it only gets downtown to 70° South of 44 looks like low to mid 70s |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2021 12:51:31 GMT -6
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2021 13:02:25 GMT -6
No cold air making it here on the euro the next 10 days either. 0 for 3. It just sits out to our nw. Would think it would be south. -30s in the Dakota's. I mean. .
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 21, 2021 13:09:03 GMT -6
There is extreme cold on all three globals, but it stays locked up in the northwestern US.
That’s still a big difference than what we had before.
It’s coming and the models will struggle mightily.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 21, 2021 13:12:53 GMT -6
Not good folks , things have gone south in a hurry. The only good thing is it’s basically the whole country minus the northern tier of states
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 21, 2021 13:26:51 GMT -6
We have to remember that no matter how cold the air mass is.
It doesn't HAVE TO come down here. You would think chances are better that it would make it here but the upper and mid level flows could keep it away and we bask in 60s while it's -35 in Bismarck. Models will have fits as we all know they don't handle cold air masses very well. So it's just a continuation of wait and see.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 21, 2021 13:28:48 GMT -6
Until the PNA flips positive (or even just not extremely negative) I’m not sure much cold will be able to establish itself this far SE. Negative PNA patterns promote strong SE ridging and a deep trough over western North America.  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 21, 2021 13:47:27 GMT -6
The longwave/blocking pattern in the Pacific still isn't ideal for cold intrusion into the Midwest, but it is improved from what we've seen so far this early season. It won't take much to coax an airmass like that equatorward.
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Post by jeffcobeeman on Dec 21, 2021 14:00:13 GMT -6
I must say, I am proud of this forum so far this year. We’ve had dismal, boring weather (outside of some severe) and multiple signals for cold and snowy in the extended that haven’t come true. After reading back, there haven’t been any hissy fits about the weather or hissy fits about the hissy fits. Merry, dry Christmas everyone. It's still early. Heads will roll after Christmas! |
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Post by cozpregon on Dec 21, 2021 15:04:40 GMT -6
I must say, I am proud of this forum so far this year. We’ve had dismal, boring weather (outside of some severe) and multiple signals for cold and snowy in the extended that haven’t come true. After reading back, there haven’t been any hissy fits about the weather or hissy fits about the hissy fits. Merry, dry Christmas everyone. It's still early. Heads will roll after Christmas! |
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Post by amstilost on Dec 21, 2021 19:50:24 GMT -6
When I read the ChicagoNWS tweet that Snowstorm920 posted it got me to thinking if the record that they will likely break has anything in common with our record temps for this month. You probably know where this is going, but, It's a freaking miracle.  Chicago temp records first..... 43.4* 1877 40.7* 1889 39.7* 1923 39.0* 2015 It seems as with most top records there is a rather large difference between #1 and #2 warm and cold, then at tenths of a degree in the middle years of the database. Also of note, one of the things I've wondered about with older records is the calibration, or lack thereof, with the thermometers of the day. So when surrounding temperature databases are the same or very close it reduces my own questions about older records. It's funny how 1877 and 1889 are flipped between STL and Chicago and 1889 was 1.6* warmer than 1877 in STL. Also, between the top 10 in STL there is a 8.1* spread. In Chicago a 7* spread. That's alot of spread. Now the snow records, or lack thereof.... the first 3 years listed each have just a trace of snow reported 1889.....In all honesty I DID see that coming....at least in the top five. 1912 2014 I tried twice and couldn't find the year 1877 in the whole database, must be a conspiracy......oh, maybe not, at the top of the page of Monthly Snowfall Amounts it plainly says from 1885-2020  I would take any bet that 1877 would have been in the top 5, likely number 1 because of that being the top temp record.....by a lot. 2.7* warmer than 1889. What I found interesting is the 'spread' from a trace to 33.3" in 1951. Yet, the normal snowfall for Dec is only 7.6". I didn't see that coming. (BTW, the normal of 7.6" would be something alot on here would sell their souls for  ) |
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Post by maddogchief on Dec 22, 2021 8:13:42 GMT -6
This whole thing has me wondering? So, the late 1940’s and into 1950’s were kind of known to be cold throughout winter, with average to maybe above snowfall. (Just thinking out loud). The mid 2010s were similar, cold and average to above snowfall.
I wonder if there is a downstream correlation to nuclear events in Japan that would support this?
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 22, 2021 9:06:52 GMT -6
This whole thing has me wondering? So, the late 1940’s and into 1950’s were kind of known to be cold throughout winter, with average to maybe above snowfall. (Just thinking out loud). The mid 2010s were similar, cold and average to above snowfall. I wonder if there is a downstream correlation to nuclear events in Japan that would support this?  |
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 22, 2021 9:08:01 GMT -6
just remember we had the 1970's & 80's
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 22, 2021 9:10:00 GMT -6
lol weird al
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 22, 2021 10:07:00 GMT -6
Looks like the GFS doesn't get us below 60° Christmas Eve night/Christmas morning
That’s pretty wild
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 22, 2021 10:09:45 GMT -6
It has St. Louis at 69F at 6am Christmas morning.
The 12Z NBM shows a high of 59F on the 24th, 68F on the 25th, and 67F on the 26th.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 22, 2021 10:20:49 GMT -6
I can't wait for Easter weekend. Gonna be great.
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Dec 22, 2021 10:28:24 GMT -6
I can't wait for Easter weekend. Gonna be great. I’m dreaming of a white Easter ….. just like the ones I used to know ….. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 22, 2021 10:38:37 GMT -6
12z gfs looks better getting the cold air down into the Central US by New Years.
Multiple overrunning events possible from the 28th-early 2022 across the Midwest
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 22, 2021 10:41:02 GMT -6
70 on christmas and a snowy new years with teens on gfs
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 22, 2021 10:49:42 GMT -6
I can't wait for Easter weekend. Gonna be great. I can't wait for the 3rd week of July. I'm gonna go ahead and call it now...Excessive Heat Warning. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 22, 2021 10:50:36 GMT -6
I'm starting to feel pretty confident that the cold is coming between Xmas and NYD. Still have no idea what that will equate to weather-wise here, but a series of overrunning events seems likely. One or those waves is going to coax that arctic airmass East of the divide, and once that happens, it's only a matter of time until it oozes into the Midwest and S Plains. Models are holding that up too much, IMO.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 22, 2021 11:04:56 GMT -6
I'm starting to feel pretty confident that the cold is coming between Xmas and NYD. Still have no idea what that will equate to weather-wise here, but a series of overrunning events seems likely. One or those waves is going to coax that arctic airmass East of the divide, and once that happens, it's only a matter of time until it oozes into the Midwest and S Plains. Models are holding that up too much, IMO. Such a highly amplified pattern is going to give the models headaches. The temperature gradient that’s going to setup over North America is almost mind boggling. |
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I would take any bet that 1877 would have been in the top 5, likely number 1 because of that being the top temp record.....by a lot. 2.7* warmer than 1889. What I found interesting is the 'spread' from a trace to 33.3" in 1951. Yet, the normal snowfall for Dec is only 7.6". I didn't see that coming. (BTW, the normal of 7.6" would be something alot on here would sell their souls for 
)
