|
|
Post by unclesam6 on Dec 22, 2021 11:09:01 GMT -6
 might as well be May with these Tds |
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 22, 2021 11:13:23 GMT -6
Canadian shows a full-on severe weather/possible tornado outbreak New Year's Eve. talk about ringing in the new year in spectacular fashion... Extreme cold follows New Year's Day into the end of the run.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 22, 2021 11:23:58 GMT -6
12Z GFS has a 'white New Year's' though!
|
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 22, 2021 11:27:24 GMT -6
One model run and we’re all back on board (including myself)! It is getting into a little closer range to start believing it.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 22, 2021 11:44:22 GMT -6
Still a big spread in the ensembles when it comes to Christmas Day temps. Southern counties look locked into a very warm Christmas while along and north of 44 still has a wide range of possible outcomes depending on how things play out  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 22, 2021 11:55:12 GMT -6
Interesting that places in sw Canada and the northwest that had their hottest temps ever over the summer are going to brutalized with cold over the next couple weeks. Possible record cold.
|
|
|
|
Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 22, 2021 12:05:07 GMT -6
Interesting that places in sw Canada and the northwest that had their hottest temps ever over the summer are going to brutalized with cold over the next couple weeks. Possible record cold. Classic example of the "rubber band theory" |
|
|
|
Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 22, 2021 12:41:44 GMT -6
Euro has -45 *F at the Montana/Canada border Wednesday morning. A bit chilly.
|
|
|
|
Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 22, 2021 13:12:07 GMT -6
Sun is littered with small to medium sunspots with a couple large ones including one roughly Saturn sized minus the rings rotating into view. Sun is gonna be busy for awhile. This could add more fuel to an active early start to Spring with more severe storms followed by an active unstable Summer. The peak of the current solar cycle maybe just about a year away.
|
|
|
|
Post by mchafin on Dec 22, 2021 13:57:20 GMT -6
70 on christmas and a snowy new years with teens on gfs Wait. GFS shows cold air 9 days out? Get outta here!! |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 22, 2021 18:34:23 GMT -6
Good luck to the models trying to figure this gradient out  |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 22, 2021 18:37:35 GMT -6
Have to imagine there will be atleast one severe weather outbreak in the coming weeks with a wide open gulf slamming up against an arctic airmass trying to ooze south
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 22, 2021 18:51:37 GMT -6
Have to imagine there will be atleast one severe weather outbreak in the coming weeks with a wide open gulf slamming up against an arctic airmass trying to ooze south if the euro's right maybe next weekend |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 22, 2021 20:50:20 GMT -6
Hoping it comes out in pieces
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 22, 2021 20:53:37 GMT -6
definitely need it in pieces
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 22, 2021 21:00:00 GMT -6
Seen this setup a lot back in the 90s... my guess that the models are going to have trouble moving the arctic air to far east to quick. It's going to want to move south quicker than east.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 22, 2021 21:04:28 GMT -6
yeah, I remember these patterns. Sometimes OKC would get ice storms while we sat at 34 and rain. We'll see what happens
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 22, 2021 21:05:35 GMT -6
Back then... seemed to be a link if Seattle got snow- we would see snow/ice around here.
|
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Dec 22, 2021 21:12:13 GMT -6
I would take 33 and a heavy soaking rain than 32 and Ice. So if its going to be ice or rain, I choose rain.
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 22, 2021 21:13:18 GMT -6
Noted
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 22, 2021 22:35:11 GMT -6
Back then... seemed to be a link if Seattle got snow- we would see snow/ice around here. Haha Seattle doesn't usually see snow or ice at all...makes sense. 1969 was an exception for them and they saw a lot of snow. |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 22, 2021 22:40:35 GMT -6
Forecasting for SeaTac 20+ years... I've seen quite a few snow events.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 22, 2021 22:47:34 GMT -6
Forecasting for SeaTac 20+ years... I've seen quite a few snow events. Good to know, that suprises me with the warm ocean currents! I'd think many of the storms had borderline temps since it's harder to get a cold high pressure to the NW. |
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 22, 2021 23:05:26 GMT -6
 Wow snowy indeed! Particularly the 1970s-80s...is that when you forecasted Coz? |
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 22, 2021 23:09:20 GMT -6
Yes... I'm 80
|
|
|
|
Post by cozpregon on Dec 22, 2021 23:38:38 GMT -6
I forecasted from 1988 to 2010 as a profession.
|
|
|
|
Post by ndolan387 on Dec 22, 2021 23:58:50 GMT -6
I forecasted from 1988 to 2010 as a profession. I see! Makes more sense. I sensed some sarcasm in your first comment w/ being 80 haha. |
|
|
|
Post by amstilost on Dec 23, 2021 9:16:22 GMT -6
Well now, looking at the Sea-Tac data there is one more reason, besides the couple I have  , to bring back the 70's. We will have to 'cherry pick' some years out of there though. |
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Dec 23, 2021 9:57:46 GMT -6
The current NBM forecast is 70F on Christmas Eve and 66F on Christmas Day. The high on Christmas Day may occur early in the morning. The 12Z GFS is a bit higher than the NBM for Christmas Day showing a high of 69F occurring around 7-8am.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Dec 23, 2021 10:02:16 GMT -6
The current NBM forecast is 70F on Christmas Eve and 66F on Christmas Day. The high on Christmas Day may occur early in the morning. The 12Z GFS is a bit higher than the NBM for Christmas Day showing a high of 69F occurring around 7-8am. hang outside christmas eve wearing bermuda shorts and drinking margaritas playing jimmy buffet music. |
|
