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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2021 12:44:56 GMT -6
Euro and GFS/Gem are worlds apart
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2021 12:45:16 GMT -6
Euro and GFS/Gem are worlds apart
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 12:45:48 GMT -6
Not a very strong signal on the GEFS for snow Sunday-Monday. A mean on less than an inch is not what you want to see at this stage of the game. Still plenty of time for things to change for the better (or worse).  |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2021 12:56:00 GMT -6
Definitely a possible outcome for the secondary to be well south, but I think deep suppression is unlikely considering there's a 590dm ridge off the Keys. I like where we sit at this range and mix of solutions. A consensus/cenceptual approach puts us in a pretty good spot, IMO.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 15:04:34 GMT -6
Not a very strong signal on the GEFS for snow Sunday-Monday. A mean on less than an inch is not what you want to see at this stage of the game. Still plenty of time for things to change for the better (or worse). The EPS does look better for snow chances. No big runs (highest member shows ~5" in 24hrs) but more than half show at least some accumulating snow. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2021 15:14:01 GMT -6
I would be happy with 1” to start the season, is that to much to ask
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 27, 2021 15:41:27 GMT -6
Probably just wishful thinking... but it seems like the low temperature for NYE night keeps getting lowered with each update.
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Post by unclesam6 on Dec 27, 2021 16:42:19 GMT -6
18z gfs still missing the phase
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Post by mosue56 on Dec 27, 2021 19:43:36 GMT -6
Two and a half months til spring, so surely we’ll see snow at some point before mid March! After all, it’s winter now!
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 27, 2021 19:52:52 GMT -6
GFS seems too strong with lead wave considering how fast it moves and that it appears to be shearing out into the ridge. It will definitely be interesting to watch this play out. I'm not saying I am optimistic... but it is at least something interesting to watch that is not severe weather. It also helps that I'm off all.week  |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 27, 2021 19:53:39 GMT -6
On A side note, I have never in my life seen a crab spider spinning a web outside in Late December! This is insane. Photos attatched of my st.peters spider friend.   |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2021 20:17:34 GMT -6
KILL IT!! SPIDER! SET THE PLACE ON FIRE!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2021 20:26:46 GMT -6
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2021 20:34:33 GMT -6
GFS seems too strong with lead wave considering how fast it moves and that it appears to be shearing out into the ridge. It will definitely be interesting to watch this play out. I'm not saying I am optimistic... but it is at least something interesting to watch that is not severe weather. It also helps that I'm off all.week Agreed, classic GFS bias...although most of the models are focusing a lot of energy way out ahead of the primary shortwave/upper low ejection which doesn't seem realistic to me. I think we'll see a trend towards a more coherent secondary wave vs. the sheared out mess that just scoots off to the East. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 21:18:56 GMT -6
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Dec 27, 2021 21:36:29 GMT -6
0Z ICON bring the goods areawide for a 2-5" event resulting in a white New Year's Day in 2022.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 27, 2021 21:55:24 GMT -6
Icon for the win
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 27, 2021 22:02:47 GMT -6
Interesting that the record was tied 3 consecutive years...am I reading that correctly?
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Post by Chris Higgins on Dec 27, 2021 22:08:04 GMT -6
00z GFS is SIGNIFICANTLY more sheared and south with lead wave
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 22:13:44 GMT -6
Gfs looks close to a nice winter storm If it could get its act together quicker
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 27, 2021 22:15:52 GMT -6
Yeah needs to do it quicker, Kind of a convoluted mess the way it is. Better than before though fo sho.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 27, 2021 22:58:39 GMT -6
Gem says nope.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 27, 2021 23:05:14 GMT -6
Ukie looks different but shows very little snow here.
Meanwhile central Texas gets a good thumping on that run
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Post by Lovableweatherguy TROY,MO on Dec 28, 2021 4:27:10 GMT -6
Lightning, thunder and rain Oh My! 😴
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 28, 2021 6:42:48 GMT -6
Damn that WARMING of a GLOBAL kind. |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Dec 28, 2021 6:47:48 GMT -6
No comments on last night's euro.
Must have been a swing and a miss.
This is a freaking nightmare winter so far.
The average temp in December is 50F.
Absolutely awful.
From the forecast discussion:
Regardless of how exactly the New Year`s system plays out, ensemble
spread is relatively narrow for temperatures later in the weekend,
building confidence in the CWA getting its first real taste of
winter. Temperatures early Sunday morning through Sunday are
forecast to be roughly 5-15 degrees below climatological normals.
These below normal temperatures look to be short-lived, as each of
the four clusters in the WPC cluster analysis show some degree of upper-
level ridging building into the Middle Mississippi Valley early
next week, helping to moderate temperatures.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2021 7:32:53 GMT -6
Well we had a glimmer of hope anyway, lol. Geez.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2021 7:38:35 GMT -6
Finally a nice soaking rain! Been a long time coming after watching the last half dozen or so rain systems blow up just to the SE.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2021 7:43:16 GMT -6
.88 already, easily going to break 1.5 today in the rain bucket
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2021 7:47:05 GMT -6
Looks like I'm on the far southern edge. Pretty light rain. Everything about 30 miles north of forecast?
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