gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491 
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Dec 28, 2021 7:49:24 GMT -6
Have we had a day yet where we failed to get above freezing? If not, I’d love to know what the record is for the latest day for us to not get above freezing in a winter season. We’d have to be close I’d think.
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Dec 28, 2021 7:52:09 GMT -6
Haven’t had a drop yet this morning. I’m sure that will change later.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2021 7:53:07 GMT -6
Well we had a glimmer of hope anyway, lol. Geez. Don't write it off just yet...models are still struggling big time. The 00z GFS looked way better while the EC jumped ship. I have a hard time believing a wound up mid-level low ejecting out of the 4 corners like that is going to bring us nothing. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2021 7:56:06 GMT -6
We had one day I think where the high was 32 a few weeks ago
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 28, 2021 8:41:47 GMT -6
This AM's forecast discussion did mention that models are converging on a more southern track, which if I am not mistaken, would increase our chances of a winter storm around here.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 28, 2021 8:49:14 GMT -6
.49” of rain so far here in the VR and moderate rain continues. Hopefully this fills up the streams some over the next few systems this week and washes them out. Sucked not being able to boat the Bourbeuse or Meramec much this year due to no water and trees in the stream everywhere.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 28, 2021 9:29:25 GMT -6
ICON is a swing and a miss this morning. That was one model that held out hope for us too along with the EURO. Both models down this morning and both with decreased snow chances. Not off to a good start.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2021 9:31:56 GMT -6
Im going with a 65 to 70 degree new years eve, then rain to cold saturday.
I have a feeling our main snows are going to come in march this year.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2021 9:38:57 GMT -6
The 06z EPS gives the metro a less than 10% chance of an inch of snow this weekend, so there’s that
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2021 10:00:27 GMT -6
Rain to cold … for a day or two than back to near or slightly above normal temps then rain to cold again. Without reinforcing cold high pressure we are probably going to be in the rain to cold scenario maybe two more weeks things will change, we will be almost half through winter by then !
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2021 10:06:23 GMT -6
The GFS is further south, but not much for the metro.
Northern counties look to get smacked good
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2021 10:07:06 GMT -6
And just like that the 12z GFS goes south and looks better for a little winter precipitation
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2021 10:07:33 GMT -6
Substantial shift south on the GFS, puts the northern half of the viewing area in the game. Much different look.
We need that Baja vort to slow down and dig south just a bit more.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2021 10:09:14 GMT -6
Maybe we get a mix on the gfs. Looks better
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2021 10:09:51 GMT -6
I like the look of the 12z gfs.
Let’s get it to wrap up a bit as it hits the Illinois, Kentucky, Indiana border.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2021 10:10:21 GMT -6
Wow GFS Is substantial Ice in metro and snow nw, I like the trends, just dont want the ice.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2021 10:10:49 GMT -6
Substantial shift south on the GFS, puts the northern half of the viewing area in the game. Much different look. We need that Baja vort to slow down and dig south just a bit more. ya we need the lead shortwave to come in just a hair further south on that run |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2021 10:11:48 GMT -6
Clearly it still doesn't know how to deal with the ejecting energy. It rounds the base of the trough and redevelops well south, giving AL and GA some snow.
Not wishcasting here, simply saying it doesn't make a lick of sense how it splits the energy.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2021 10:23:45 GMT -6
The GFS is further south, but not much for the metro. Northern counties look to get smacked good The metro gets more than I thought at first glance. That would be an impactful winter storm for sure verbatim |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2021 10:24:50 GMT -6
GEM went south some as well has us in a little winter weather as well, it’s hard to tell on the black and white charts , but definitely better. We need another 50-100 mile shift south and we will be in decent shape
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2021 10:33:58 GMT -6
Yea GEM basically did exactly what the GFS did. Need a little more south though. Hopefully the start of a trend.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2021 10:43:58 GMT -6
Substantial shift in the GEFS from 06z to 12z.
Strong signal for a snowstorm across the northern half of MO now showing up on the 12z
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Post by bdgwx on Dec 28, 2021 10:45:50 GMT -6
12Z GEFS has the 850mb low moving just north of St. Louis. It's not showing up as a cohesive closed low yet though. The MSLP came south quite a bit vs the 00Z cycle. It's still a hair north of the benchmark, but a lot better than previous runs.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2021 10:55:54 GMT -6
Ukie still looks like a mainly rain event, but it takes a 993mb surface low through Cape G, so it's that that far off
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2021 10:57:37 GMT -6
This could end up being a I44 and points north crusher. but we will see. I like the trends. However I am still going with rain to cold at this stage.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2021 10:58:05 GMT -6
Wow the GEFS really changed since yesterday, one more small track south and we’re all in business.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2021 11:06:33 GMT -6
The GFS is REALLY close to something special. If we can get a quicker, more coherent phase between those two distinct waves digging in, we'll be in business. Still think models are focusing too much energy out front with that shearing wave, but they are slowly trending better.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2021 12:20:02 GMT -6
12z euro is too far north for STL, much further north than the ggem, gfs, and ukmet
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2021 12:20:06 GMT -6
Euro is a no no. Not even close really. Bleck
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Post by pbc12871 on Dec 28, 2021 12:22:02 GMT -6
Shocking..
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