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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2021 12:25:18 GMT -6
Friggin EURO is all over the place...
NEXT!
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2021 12:26:05 GMT -6
At noon sat euro has 66 at Lambert and 15 in Kansas City. At 6pm it's 29 at Lambert and 7 in Kansas City. About 40 degree drop sat afternoon. Without a single flake of course
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2021 12:28:16 GMT -6
I would split the difference between the ukmet and the euro for placement of the low.
Thinking Kirksville wins this one personally, but you can find support for just about any outcome across the major operational models and ensembles.
At least it’s something to talk about.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2021 12:31:59 GMT -6
Euro has had a notorious amplification bias in this range the last couple of years.
Not saying its solution is wrong, but it being the strongest and furthest north solution isn't shocking in the least
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2021 12:35:26 GMT -6
 Posting this as proof snow is still possible in the region. Record latest measurable snow in Chicago ends just before the New Year. Hopefully, STL is next. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2021 12:48:30 GMT -6
We have good trends, euro has been the worst model in my opinion for most winter systems at this range
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2021 12:52:50 GMT -6
We have good trends, euro has been the worst model in my opinion for most winter systems at this range I mean, it’s statistically the best model in the world, so that opinion might be a little bias… Snowstorm noted the intensity bias on the euro which is fair, but it is still the gold standard for forecasting. |
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2021 13:04:25 GMT -6
Thats why i still lean heavily on euro, rain to cold. However i think we should hold rain to cold until friday and see what euro does, but to me the nam is much better in the winter
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2021 13:06:37 GMT -6
We have good trends, euro has been the worst model in my opinion for most winter systems at this range I mean, it’s statistically the best model in the world, so that opinion might be a little bias… Snowstorm noted the intensity bias on the euro which is fair, but it is still the gold standard for forecasting. The euro seems to have slipped up a bit here recently.
I'm sure it still has the highest verification scores and all that, but it's been getting outperformed by other modeling more and more it seems.
I'm not sure if other models are just catching up to it, or the euro took a small step backwards.
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2021 13:41:17 GMT -6
The euro is definitely not the same euro of 5-10 years ago, it would dominate winter storms. For the last few years it has been all over the place during the winter. I don’t really care what it’s verification scores are it’s not what it used to be be. It’s made the most radical jumps of this storm for sure, it was way south for a couple runs now it’s the northern outlier.
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2021 13:52:29 GMT -6
The euro is definitely not the same euro of 5-10 years ago, it would dominate winter storms. For the last few years it has been all over the place during the winter. I don’t really care what it’s verification scores are it’s not what it used to be be. It’s made the most radical jumps of this storm for sure, it was way south for a couple runs now it’s the northern outlier. You can argue if the verification scores are evaluating the correct metrics, but we know humans are full of bias and have trouble evaluating things fairly. They certainly offer one way to evaluate performance that is more useful than the “eye” test. |
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2021 14:02:08 GMT -6
What do the EPS show?
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Post by dmbstl on Dec 28, 2021 14:19:24 GMT -6
Good rain. Nearly 1.8” in the gauge I just dumped.
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Post by Snowman99 on Dec 28, 2021 14:25:14 GMT -6
Not quite .7 this morning here.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2021 14:29:54 GMT -6
An someone please confirm, i have 2.98 in the rain gauge, but that seems very high, can someone please confirm the amount in the st.peters area, the east wind may have affected my rain gauge with the gutter that overflowed feet from the gauge.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Dec 28, 2021 14:46:27 GMT -6
The EURO is a shadow of it's former self for sure. The past couple days prove that as well as it's antics the past several years at least.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Dec 28, 2021 14:46:28 GMT -6
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2021 14:48:54 GMT -6
Brtn, I totally agree with you on that statement.
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Post by amstilost on Dec 28, 2021 14:49:30 GMT -6
An someone please confirm, i have 2.98 in the rain gauge, but that seems very high, can someone please confirm the amount in the st.peters area, the east wind may have affected my rain gauge with the gutter that overflowed feet from the gauge. I don't have any 'local' confirmation, but, the Storm Total on NWS radar says that Columbia, MO received 2" and very close to the 2.5" demarcation, then, areas west of Springfield, IL received 3-4" and a good chunk of real estate NW of Springfield received 4". Looks like St. Peters received 2 " but it is right near the 1 and 2" lines. Edit: Looks like .3" of rain 7 miles west of De Soto. Figures. |
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Post by landscaper on Dec 28, 2021 14:55:38 GMT -6
I had 1.66” in wentzville and 1.98” near Troy Mo farm
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Post by amstilost on Dec 28, 2021 14:57:34 GMT -6
Has anyone had these symptoms. I am baffled. After a day outside driving around and taking care of stuff most of the day yesterday, after getting home in the evening I noticed my joints, especially my back, just aching. Throughout the evening and night it felt like a fever 'could' be coming on but never took it. Slight lightheaded/dizzines. Rough night sleeping. Woke up early and felt much better but still a nagging pain in neck, back, thighs, shoulders, elbows. Seems to be hurting more as the afternoon wears on. Still a little lightheaded/dizzy but really don't 'feel' all that bad, sickness wise. Has anyone had anything similar?
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Post by STGOutdoors on Dec 28, 2021 15:20:08 GMT -6
Has anyone had these symptoms. I am baffled. After a day outside driving around and taking care of stuff most of the day yesterday, after getting home in the evening I noticed my joints, especially my back, just aching. Throughout the evening and night it felt like a fever 'could' be coming on but never took it. Slight lightheaded/dizzines. Rough night sleeping. Woke up early and felt much better but still a nagging pain in neck, back, thighs, shoulders, elbows. Seems to be hurting more as the afternoon wears on. Still a little lightheaded/dizzy but really don't 'feel' all that bad, sickness wise. Has anyone had anything similar? The little guy (almost 2 year old) just got over a nasty sinus and double ear infection, and my wife got a form of it as well that included joint pain. I've had a little scratch in my throat for a week and have some dizziness and sinus pain today. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Dec 28, 2021 15:24:28 GMT -6
18z Icon is a Kirksville storm.
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Jeke
Junior Forecaster
Old Jamestown, MO
Posts: 320 
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Post by Jeke on Dec 28, 2021 15:27:07 GMT -6
Keep in mind the seasonal flu reports are on the rise, too.
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seyahmit
Weather Weenie
Hwys K & N, O'Fallon, MO
Posts: 57
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Post by seyahmit on Dec 28, 2021 15:38:57 GMT -6
I had 1.29" in MO'Fallon.
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Post by ajd446 on Dec 28, 2021 15:49:02 GMT -6
Ok thats all I needed to know guys thank you, im going to move my gauge further from where the wind can influence the totals.
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Post by rb1108 on Dec 28, 2021 15:54:14 GMT -6
NWS says the majority of ensembles favor a southern storm track, leading to a more likely potential of wintry weather.
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Post by birddog on Dec 28, 2021 15:59:58 GMT -6
1.43" recorded here. 2021 total to date 45.87"
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Post by amstilost on Dec 28, 2021 16:04:32 GMT -6
Thanks for the replies....hopefully these will be the only symptoms.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Dec 28, 2021 16:10:38 GMT -6
Has anyone had these symptoms. I am baffled. After a day outside driving around and taking care of stuff most of the day yesterday, after getting home in the evening I noticed my joints, especially my back, just aching. Throughout the evening and night it felt like a fever 'could' be coming on but never took it. Slight lightheaded/dizzines. Rough night sleeping. Woke up early and felt much better but still a nagging pain in neck, back, thighs, shoulders, elbows. Seems to be hurting more as the afternoon wears on. Still a little lightheaded/dizzy but really don't 'feel' all that bad, sickness wise. Has anyone had anything similar? I had all those symptoms plus a small rash and it was in fact Covid. Lasted 3 days and gone but overall very uncomfortable but tolerable during it all. |
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