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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 9:35:01 GMT -6
The dry air is a real concern with a system like this...it has all the halmarks... extremely cold and dry high pressure pressing in from the north. The system will have to work mostly with what it brings with it. It start to tap some gulf moisture as it reaches the ohio valley... but it is questionable as to whether anything meaningful can be pulled up in time to help us out. And be careful of just assuming cold temperatures = high LSRs. Looking at the BUFKIT soundings shows that while the DGZ may be deep... most of the lift (almost all of it in fact) is above the DGZ in colder air. This will keep LSRs from getting too radical.
The dry air leaves me to believe there will be a stripe or two where precip struggles to reach the ground within the main body of precip. I suspect we will get a couple of bands of frontogenesis driven snow... odds favoring one to our north from St. Joe to maybe Bowling Green area... and another south of I-70 somewhere. It's too early too get that fancy... but I'd be concerned about a relative dry slot between the two bands...and some of the modeling is hinting at that.
I like the ideas some of you have posted already... this system looks like a 1-3 or 2-4 type storm right now. MAYBE.... if a band lingers in a zone for a little longer we can pop a 5" but I think the "lighter side" is the way to go for now.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 9:36:34 GMT -6
NAM was area wide .15” with .20” qpf just North and South of metro. Super high ratio stuff though. I like an average 15:1 SLR though with the dry air being took into consideration.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 9:55:52 GMT -6
GFS is not budging
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 3, 2022 10:05:05 GMT -6
Have to start thinking maybe it’s on to something maybe.......or just still drunk/hungover from New Years partying!! 😂😂 |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 10:18:14 GMT -6
RGEM looks great, Gem still looks good but drier for sure
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 10:23:25 GMT -6
12z GEFS looks a tick drier than the 06z
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 10:35:27 GMT -6
Nice to see the GEM came in as a solid hit still. Hafta tame yourself with that model though because it’s often the most juiced than what is reality.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 10:50:27 GMT -6
Well there goes the Ukie to team GFS
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 10:51:20 GMT -6
Ukmet way drier, basically nothing in the metro. The Gem still has 1-3” but a lot less than yesterday. Icon and GFS bone dry as well. Nam and RGEM are the wettest currently
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 11:13:07 GMT -6
Ukmet way drier, basically nothing in the metro. The Gem still has 1-3” but a lot less than yesterday. Icon and GFS bone dry as well. Nam and RGEM are the wettest currently According to GrizzleB rules. We are right on par for the course. Can’t remember but is it step #8?!? |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2022 11:17:50 GMT -6
I noticed that "split" in the banding as well, Chris...it shows up nicely in the 700mb charts. Seems like there's a trend of an initial Fgen band that sets up along/N of 70 early Thurs AM and then another to the S as the system pivots a bit. Seems like an all-too-familiar trend with systems like this...they always seem to be in a state of transition when they move across the region. I don't know how many Fgen bands I've watched blow up across the N/Central Plains only to weaken as it approaches and then regroup across the OHV.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 11:29:07 GMT -6
Yes sir , we call it the St Louis Split, it happens several times a year
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2022 11:33:28 GMT -6
looks like another winner
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2022 11:45:48 GMT -6
Certainly don’t like to see the gfs still dry along with the gem and uk getting drier. Yikes. Euro will be telling here shortly.
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2022 11:46:10 GMT -6
parts of the DC area had a foot in like 6 hours
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 11:51:28 GMT -6
parts of the DC ara had a foot in like 6 hours Lots of thunder snow reported with that system. Amazing what a nice compact negatively titled shortwave will do for you. |
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Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 3, 2022 11:54:20 GMT -6
Where is Lucy and her football?
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 11:57:07 GMT -6
Good lord, none of us expected Thursday to be much, just let it play out guys.
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Post by pbc12871 on Jan 3, 2022 12:05:20 GMT -6
Lol.
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 3, 2022 12:07:29 GMT -6
Good lord, none of us expected Thursday to be much, just let it play out guys. Coming from you trying to hype a major ice storm this past weekend. Please stop. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 12:09:46 GMT -6
So true…
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 12:13:52 GMT -6
Euro looks way drier and not much
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 12:16:12 GMT -6
Writing might be on the wall with this one
Dang GFS just might pull the coup
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2022 12:16:39 GMT -6
Euro has jumped ship completely, so have I. The winter that keeps on giving.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 12:19:24 GMT -6
GFS with the major beat down
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 12:19:42 GMT -6
I have no Idea what I am doing wrong with you guys. I am doing absolutely nothing radical, and never said there was going to be a major ice storm. seriously
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 3, 2022 12:21:02 GMT -6
I love this forum. Always will! 2022 is gonna be sweet!
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Post by mchafin on Jan 3, 2022 12:24:55 GMT -6
Did the Euro “lose” the storm or is it just another Lucy moment? The Canadian seems to be on its own albeit drier
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 12:26:35 GMT -6
If the GFS single handedly pulls this off it’s a major win for a model that did subpar for the last storm. I’m sure that fgen band placement and strength will change still. Hard to imagine almost every model vs. the GFS being wrong. I still think we will see some major swings. It’s not even well sampled yet.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 3, 2022 12:31:11 GMT -6
This is a case where the Euro is trending towards Chris's statement at the top of this page. Got to love it.
Side note...Now the wife has what I had a few days ago. She should be feeling good sometime between 3-8 am tomorrow morning if it acts the same way as it did with me.
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