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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 12:33:03 GMT -6
Did the Euro “lose” the storm or is it just another Lucy moment? The Canadian seems to be on its own albeit drier All the models have the system, it's just a matter of how strong the shortwave can get. The GFS has been way more sheared out and weaker than the other modeling but now all the models are trending that way. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 12:34:21 GMT -6
Looking like staying in the lowest ranges is the wqy to go for sure. Emphasize potential minot to moderate impacts ro travel during the day from what looks to be a light snow event... Broadly speaking... our viewing area range will be a dusting to maybe 3" on the high side. For the metro I'd start with around 1" possible and go from there.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 12:39:37 GMT -6
If the GFS single handedly pulls this off it’s a major win for a model that did subpar for the last storm. I’m sure that fgen band placement and strength will change still. Hard to imagine almost every model vs. the GFS being wrong. I still think we will see some major swings. It’s not even well sampled yet. Maybe I'm just remembering wrong, but I don't think the GFS did that poorly with the last system. It was consistently the weakest model solution, and eventually that solution ended up being the most correct. The euro on the other hand was way way too amped up in the medium range only to fall more in line with the GFS solution (boy that sounds familiar).
It seems like the current v16 version of the GFS is performing similarly to the euro and even better than it at times.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 12:43:17 GMT -6
If the GFS single handedly pulls this off it’s a major win for a model that did subpar for the last storm. I’m sure that fgen band placement and strength will change still. Hard to imagine almost every model vs. the GFS being wrong. I still think we will see some major swings. It’s not even well sampled yet. Maybe I'm just remembering wrong, but I don't think the GFS did that poorly with the last system. It was consistently the weakest model solution, and eventually that solution ended up being the most correct. The euro on the other hand was way way too amped up in the medium range only to fall more in line with the GFS solution (boy that sounds familiar).
It seems like the current v16 version of the GFS is performing similarly to the euro and even better than it at times.
Hmmm… I’m not sure about that. If I recall it was the one model that continued to print accumulating snow on the order of 1 to 2” all the way into the STL metro and we all seen how that played out. Edit: Just looked back and it was the southernmost model showing 1/2” to 2” accumulations even ice up to .20” of icing shown as far south as Crawford County leading right up to the storm. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 12:48:41 GMT -6
Maybe I'm just remembering wrong, but I don't think the GFS did that poorly with the last system. It was consistently the weakest model solution, and eventually that solution ended up being the most correct. The euro on the other hand was way way too amped up in the medium range only to fall more in line with the GFS solution (boy that sounds familiar).
It seems like the current v16 version of the GFS is performing similarly to the euro and even better than it at times.
Hmmm… I’m not sure about that. If I recall it was the one model that continued to print accumulating snow on the order of 1 to 2” all the way into the STL metro and we all seen how that played out. I do remember it had a few runs where it pulled the snow line down into the metro. I wish there was a site that archived model runs back a few weeks. Most sites only go back a couple days. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2022 12:48:52 GMT -6
I really need to move to a better place...the weather is pretty awful here 90% of the time, among "other" reasons.
Idaho looking better all the time.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 12:58:56 GMT -6
Just my opinion but I think everyone is throwing in the !Drying Cloth! too quick. At this point the EURO and to a better extent the NAM, RGEM, and GEM all still give us accumulating snow in some means with the latest runs. Isn’t this the range where you don’t want to be the bullseye right now anyway? Also, looked like Fuller used their in house model for the 11:00am and showed a large swath of 2” totals so that would add another to the mix if it was that model.
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 3, 2022 12:58:57 GMT -6
I really need to move to a better place...the weather is pretty awful here 90% of the time, among "other" reasons. Idaho looking better all the time. It really depends on what you truly enjoy doing. I’ve never been to Idaho, but it is a very diverse state with many different climates just a couple hours from each other. State politics are a welcome mix of ideas. It’s definitely on my list of places to visit. Northern WI and UP are also good places if you are an outdoorsy person and not a fan of hot, humid summers. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 13:01:48 GMT -6
I really need to move to a better place...the weather is pretty awful here 90% of the time, among "other" reasons. Idaho looking better all the time. The older I get the more I feel the pull to a warm weather city. Or Colorado. Can’t beat the scenery there. |
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Post by maddogchief on Jan 3, 2022 13:06:00 GMT -6
Not expecting much if anything Thursday to include STL. I’d say maybe an inch, if that. A drying trend at this range is doomsday for an already relatively moisture starved storm.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 13:13:54 GMT -6
Not surprising, but a major step back in the EPS
Mean is now .10”
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2022 13:32:40 GMT -6
15z sref plume mean QPF is 0.25.
There are 6 haymakers out of 26 members.
Obviously, some duds in there as well.
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cowboy
Wishcaster
10 miles west of rolla
Posts: 197 
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Post by cowboy on Jan 3, 2022 13:34:55 GMT -6
The major models all did a wonderful job on the DC storm. Lol. I thought the days of surprise snowstorms were a thing of the past.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2022 13:56:06 GMT -6
15z sref plume mean QPF is 0.25. There are 6 haymakers out of 26 members. Obviously, some duds in there as well. Somewhat encouraging to see the SREF and NAM in agreement with higher output. Still think 0.20" is the upper limit with the liquid equivalent and <0.10" is certainly possible. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2022 14:00:11 GMT -6
I really need to move to a better place...the weather is pretty awful here 90% of the time, among "other" reasons. Idaho looking better all the time. It really depends on what you truly enjoy doing. I’ve never been to Idaho, but it is a very diverse state with many different climates just a couple hours from each other. State politics are a welcome mix of ideas. It’s definitely on my list of places to visit. Northern WI and UP are also good places if you are an outdoorsy person and not a fan of hot, humid summers. Idaho is a beautiful state that a lot of people sleep on. A lot of different climates and landscapes like you said, from lush river valleys to high desert and mountain ranges. I enjoy most everything it has to offer, recreationally. And I'm really trying to move towards a self-sufficient, homesteading lifestyle to get away from this hustle and bustle madness. I'll get there eventually. |
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Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2022 14:01:47 GMT -6
15z sref plume mean QPF is 0.25. There are 6 haymakers out of 26 members. Obviously, some duds in there as well. Somewhat encouraging to see the SREF and NAM in agreement with higher output. Still think 0.20" is the upper limit with the liquid equivalent and <0.10" is certainly possible. I’ll take my shot like you did last storm. I think there is higher end potential (either through a narrow Fgen band over performing) or a more robust low bringing in Gulf moisture during a pivot. It’s on the tail of the distribution, but no storms behind this one for a while, so might as well hope for it. Fgen bands will likely lead to the STL split and a lot of have nots, so have to get that 12z nam type solution or the board meltdown will be on. |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2022 14:10:53 GMT -6
I'm trying to think which system was similar to this one a year or three back where there was a very cold airmass in place and dry air was a big concern but it was overwhelmed quickly. It really seems to saturate and snow a lot easier when the airmass is that cold, opposed to the borderline crap we get 95% of the time that can eat precip alive due to large dewpoint depressions.
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Post by ComoEsJn on Jan 3, 2022 14:10:55 GMT -6
compared to the early days of this board when I was in my 20's, I really have grown to be very "blah" about the cold and don't mind the more mild winters anymore. 2008 Me just slapped myself through time for saying that.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 3, 2022 14:11:09 GMT -6
The major models all did a wonderful job on the DC storm. Lol. I thought the days of surprise snowstorms were a thing of the past. What took place was very rare. Our storm last February was similar in how much model output changed from just a little change in amplification, llj, and moisture return. The models were mostly giving us 1-3" if that. Then with like 30 hours left one of them showed the more slower amplified solution. Then within 12 hours they all jumped to the winter storm warning level event. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 14:12:20 GMT -6
The National Blend of Models has been pretty consistent in showing a 1-3” system across the area using the “in house ratios” on Pivotal.
I agree on the fgen band potential. These clipper type systems on the leading nose of arctic air can kick off some intense and very localized fgen bands.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 3, 2022 14:12:53 GMT -6
compared to the early days of this board when I was in my 20's, I really have grown to be very "blah" about the cold and don't mind the more mild winters anymore. 2008 Me just slapped myself through time for saying that. I hate the cold. All I think about is the homeless. How horrible that must be. If we have no snow. The cold can disappear |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 14:17:38 GMT -6
The major models all did a wonderful job on the DC storm. Lol. I thought the days of surprise snowstorms were a thing of the past. What took place was very rare. Our storm last February was similar in how much model output changed from just a little change in amplification, llj, and moisture return. The models were mostly giving us 1-3" if that. Then with like 30 hours left one of them showed the more slower amplified solution. Then within 12 hours they all jumped to the winter storm warning level event. That was the GFSv16 coming out party. It was still in the testing phase back then but it was the only model for a couple days that showed a significant snowfall event while all other models (including the then operational GFSv15) had nothing here. That was the coup of all coups. www.weather.gov/lsx/PresidentsDay2021SnowEvent |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 3, 2022 14:25:23 GMT -6
Funny...I remember some ridiculously juiced runs that were showing like 15-20" of snow across the region with that storm and had people blowing me up because they saw the clown maps on FB. I said we're probably getting like 6" with super cold antecedent conditions...wasn't too far off. I just remember thinking how ridiculous it was that models were pumping those kinds of totals with an airmass near zero degrees. Not even something that was physically possible.
Those must have been in the medium range, I guess...like 6 or 7 days out.
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2022 14:28:12 GMT -6
Yup, I remember when the Nam jumped on board that Sunday morning it was for real. That was so much fun.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 15:09:24 GMT -6
Well SPG’s disco is out and their current thinking is up to 2” North of HWY 60 and East of HWY 65. Also raised props.
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Post by bdgwx on Jan 3, 2022 15:11:27 GMT -6
The National Blend of Models has been pretty consistent in showing a 1-3” system across the area using the “in house ratios” on Pivotal. I agree on the fgen band potential. These clipper type systems on the leading nose of arctic air can kick off some intense and very localized fgen bands. I did some digging on this. I'm pretty sure Pivotal Weather is using the SXX parameter (S06 for 6-hour or S12 for 12-hour) which is in units of 1/10 of an inch. You can get the raw output in text format here and you can use the documentation here for parameter descriptions and meanings. The SXX parameters uses dynamic model derived SLR techniques. Here is the SLR methodology table for NBM 3.2. Note that NBM 4.0 is the operational version so this table is a bit dated, but gives you a feel for how things are done. For those that don't know NBM is a multi-model ensemble. In a nutshell the NBM snowfall map on Pivotal Weather is probably the gold standard for snowfall forecasts.  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 3, 2022 15:11:44 GMT -6
Nam has reduced it to a more narrow 1-2” band at 18z. I’m thinking this thing goes poof before tomorrow’s runs.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 15:20:44 GMT -6
18z ICON is and improvement and pics up on a better fgen band but it’s just south of the metro. Better than the flurries it had this morning.
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gonefishin - WashMO
Junior Forecaster
Washington, Franklin County, MO
Posts: 491
Snowfall Events: 2013-2014: A lot!
2014-2015: If you forecast it, it will come!
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Post by gonefishin - WashMO on Jan 3, 2022 15:23:30 GMT -6
Seems to be following the same pattern from the last two days. The models seem to lose the storm in the afternoon runs only to find it again in the evening band overnight runs. Stay the course!!!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 15:28:56 GMT -6
18z RGEM is still showing a high-end solution, but hard to put much trust in that model
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