|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 15:31:07 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 15:32:51 GMT -6
I’ve never been a fan of any forecast going with a 1 to 4” or Trace to 3” snowfall map. To me it just shows how non-confident it is. Rather than put out crazy map ranges like this one from SPG. There’s no reason to rush a map when you still got plenty of time to sort things out? www.weather.gov/sgf/winter |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 3, 2022 15:38:37 GMT -6
My Forecast From the national weather service is snow likely on Thursday with 1 to 3 inches…….I would be happy with this
|
|
|
|
Post by bdgwx on Jan 3, 2022 15:43:02 GMT -6
Washington D.C. got a solid snow out of that system. I'm seeing an 11.8" report in the south part of the city. Further southeast I see a 15.5" report.
|
|
|
|
Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 3, 2022 16:22:42 GMT -6
One thing really starting to show up with the 18z suite is that fgen band Along and South of 70. Will hafta really watch that band because we seen them over perform many times. Hard part is where that band lines up because models always struggle with that but right now in pretty good agreement.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmg378s on Jan 3, 2022 16:42:31 GMT -6
Speaking of the February event last year and snow ratios. Just a reminder when it was all said and done LSR at Lambert was 11:1 and all the precip fell with temps in the single digits. Primary limiting factor there was lack of lift in the snow growth level of atmosphere (roughly -10C to -20C) for a majority of the event.
|
|
|
|
Post by Jeffmw on Jan 3, 2022 17:01:44 GMT -6
Can anyone else tell it’s already staying lighter earlier now?
|
|
|
|
Post by mosue56 on Jan 3, 2022 17:38:25 GMT -6
Jeffmw, we were just talking about that. It used to be pitch dark at 4:30 and now it’s 5ish. I think we are gaining a min a day and by March we’ll have two extra hours of daylight. Time to go fishing!
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 17:44:32 GMT -6
I’ve never been a fan of any forecast going with a 1 to 4” or Trace to 3” snowfall map. To me it just shows how non-confident it is. Rather than put out crazy map ranges like this one from SPG. There’s no reason to rush a map when you still got plenty of time to sort things out? www.weather.gov/sgf/winterI think it's ok in certain circumstances... especially when you are 3 days out. I don't see anything wrong at all by communicating a lack of confidence in the details. I don't think we do ourselves a service by trying to claim better accuracy than we have. At this stage of the game, I wouldn't show a map with 1-4 across the entire region... but a broad brush statement that our viewing area may see a range of 1-3 (or 1-4) seems ok. |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 17:49:12 GMT -6
Quick look into the SREF data and also the 18z NAM and NAM3km seems to be trying to pickup more on the west to east mesoscale band Wednesday night. That may explain some of the beefy SREF members. Getting parked under that west to east band from midnight to 6am could definitely up the volume a little bit so to speak. That seems to be our best shot for bigger snowfall totals. If that northern band materializes and remains nearly stationary for several hours (as hinted at by the NAM and NAM3km) that could put down an extraordinarily narrow band of heavy snow... like a county wide or less! Then the development of a possible lighter snow event as the shortwave migrates over between 6am and early afternoon. This would be fun to forecast if I didn't have to worry about public opinion and credibility  |
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 18:42:47 GMT -6
So... my head hurts. I went to the 500mb pattern to try to better back track the energy that is forecast to become our Clipper system later this week... holy cow! I think it's rounding the northwest flank of the huge Gulf of Alaska upper low. Over the next 3 days that upper low gets obliterated... stretched to the west and to the east southeast...I mean it's a mess! Somehow, the models are able to track the "entity" through the mess and with some minor degree of consistency bring it through the Pacific Northwest and down towards the midwest wednesday night into Thursday. I'm amazed we are able to have any solutions that look similar in this pattern. It's mesmerizing! Go to pivotalweather.com and play the 500mb vorticity loop forwards and backwards a few times... it's crazy! www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500hv&rh=2022010312&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 |
|
|
|
Post by SnowManJoe - Wentzville, MO on Jan 3, 2022 18:45:32 GMT -6
This would be fun to forecast if I didn't have to worry about public opinion and credibility I laughed out loud when I read this line. |
|
|
|
Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 3, 2022 18:50:16 GMT -6
So... my head hurts. I went to the 500mb pattern to try to better back track the energy that is forecast to become our Clipper system later this week... holy cow! I think it's rounding the northwest flank of the huge Gulf of Alaska upper low. Over the next 3 days that upper low gets obliterated... stretched to the west and to the east southeast...I mean it's a mess! Somehow, the models are able to track the "entity" through the mess and with some minor degree of consistency bring it through the Pacific Northwest and down towards the midwest wednesday night into Thursday. I'm amazed we are able to have any solutions that look similar in this pattern. It's mesmerizing! Go to pivotalweather.com and play the 500mb vorticity loop forwards and backwards a few times... it's crazy! www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500hv&rh=2022010312&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1It looks like a lava lamp lol |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 19:13:30 GMT -6
I have a bad feeling STL is going to be stuck in no man’s land with this upcoming system
Better frontogenesis to the west and deeper moisture from the gulf to the east
Even some of the ensembles are hinting at it
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 19:22:32 GMT -6
I have a bad feeling STL is going to be stuck in no man’s land with this upcoming system Better frontogenesis to the west and deeper moisture from the gulf to the east Even some of the ensembles are hinting at it Or... the NAM3km is right and we get stuck in 15 mile wide mesoscale band from hell and we get a surprise 6" by Thursday morning... I can't rule that out... but it is an outlier. |
|
|
|
Post by landscaper on Jan 3, 2022 19:24:27 GMT -6
Snowstorm, what did the 18Z Euro show ?
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 19:29:07 GMT -6
I have a bad feeling STL is going to be stuck in no man’s land with this upcoming system Better frontogenesis to the west and deeper moisture from the gulf to the east Even some of the ensembles are hinting at it Or... the NAM3km is right and we get stuck in 15 mile wide mesoscale band from hell and we get a surprise 6" by Thursday morning... I can't rule that out... but it is an outlier. Im sure if that meso band comes to fruition it will setup right over BRTNs house lol |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 19:31:29 GMT -6
Snowstorm, what did the 18Z Euro show ? Not much. Maybe an inch for most of the area. |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 19:32:43 GMT -6
Just let it play out yall.
|
|
|
|
Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 3, 2022 19:32:52 GMT -6
Or... the NAM3km is right and we get stuck in 15 mile wide mesoscale band from hell and we get a surprise 6" by Thursday morning... I can't rule that out... but it is an outlier. Im sure if that meso band comes to fruition it will setup right over BRTNs house lol We know it will not be over Union. |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 19:33:27 GMT -6
But it will definately be over st.peters ofallon and wentzville lol
|
|
|
|
Post by snowjunky on Jan 3, 2022 19:36:39 GMT -6
Ballwin will see 1/2 a flake.
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2022 19:41:49 GMT -6
21z sref plume mean dropped to 0.15 QPF. Decent clustering between 0.1-0.2 supporting a general 1-3 inches.
|
|
|
|
Post by Snowman99 on Jan 3, 2022 19:44:08 GMT -6
Im sure if that meso band comes to fruition it will setup right over BRTNs house lol We know it will not be over Union. Hey now. lol |
|
|
|
Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 3, 2022 19:50:18 GMT -6
NWS NBM is starting to dwindle with snow amounts
It was at 2" on the 12z run this morning, and now it's at 1" on the 00z
|
|
|
|
Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 3, 2022 20:27:26 GMT -6
Through 51 hours the name looks a little bit better organized coming out of the Rockies
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2022 20:35:25 GMT -6
Through 51 hours the name looks a little bit better organized coming out of the Rockies Pretty far north with the Fgen band, giving several inches of snow to northern Missouri. But, looks like it also tries to bring some moisture in from the Gulf and gets everyone in on the action. Not a bad run there. Classic STL split design in the QPF charts too 😂 |
|
|
|
Post by ajd446 on Jan 3, 2022 20:37:15 GMT -6
Nam definately is the northern outlier right now. Does get the main system going a bit faster though
|
|
|
|
Post by Worldserieschampions (Chicago) on Jan 3, 2022 20:49:31 GMT -6
00z 3k nam really shows that Fgen band going off.
It would be funny to see a winter storm warning for 2 rows of counties across Missouri.
We’ve seen these bands do serious damage, but pretty much impossible to pinpoint until they setup.
Fun to see it modeled so aggressively at this range.
|
|
|
|
Post by guyatacomputer - NE St. Peters on Jan 3, 2022 20:49:36 GMT -6
Can anyone else tell it’s already staying lighter earlier now? You aren't wrong. Earliest sunset is at 440 PM on Dec 12 or so. Sunset for January 3 is at 500 PM. |
|
