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Post by mosue56 on Jan 4, 2022 15:25:24 GMT -6
Clouded up where there was blue skies. A little sun! We started off with a pretty day!
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 15:28:56 GMT -6
Who knows, but chris forecast is spot on for now and just let it ride.
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 15:46:51 GMT -6
15z SREF plumes still show no real clustering. The mean is holding steady just under .10” of liquid but still a large spread in members  |
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 4, 2022 15:55:24 GMT -6
18Z GFS dry as a bone.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 16:02:45 GMT -6
Gfs has been dry as a bone this entire storm honestly. If it pulls this off it is a big win for that model
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2022 16:06:53 GMT -6
no it hasn't. A few days ago gfs showed a pretty substantial snow
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 16:13:40 GMT -6
I guess, i forgot bout that. Sorry
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 16:15:41 GMT -6
Rap looks great along and south of 70 with 1 to 3
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 16:18:43 GMT -6
All models at this point have not done well. They went from gangbusters, to a light event to a moderate event to a full blown warning level on the NAM just this morning. It’s obviously they are struggling with energy on multiple levels with the dry air likely having a big influence and transfer of the wave as it sinks south and ejects the low east.
Not to mention just a couple days ago a swath of light snow was modeled across much of the state and now we are sitting here trying to find a way to get hit by an uncertain fgen band currently favoring along or more likely south of the Missouri River. It’s been a mess the last 48hrs in my opinion.
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 4, 2022 16:23:23 GMT -6
Rap looks great along and south of 70 with 1 to 3 Lock it in. |
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Post by jeepers on Jan 4, 2022 16:59:23 GMT -6
I’d take an inch of mood snow.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 17:07:34 GMT -6
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 4, 2022 17:11:15 GMT -6
That run has a Marissa in the jackpot… That’s the kiss of death for that model LOL |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 17:14:02 GMT -6
Why does the map posted for the rap look further south than what is modeled on pivotal weather.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 17:15:00 GMT -6
Rap/HRRR/NAM are all very similar with that snow map. Not bad if we can keep right where it is and no more southern shifts
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 17:15:24 GMT -6
Never mind its 1 to 3 along and south of 70 its the colors that got me
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Post by demerson- Fletcher MO on Jan 4, 2022 17:51:43 GMT -6
That run has a Marissa in the jackpot… That’s the kiss of death for that model LOL Same I’m in that band as well. Not gonna happen ha ha. |
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Post by amstilost on Jan 4, 2022 18:05:45 GMT -6
That run has a Marissa in the jackpot… That’s the kiss of death for that model LOL Same I’m in that band as well. Not gonna happen ha ha. Me three....7 miles west of De Soto. |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 18:06:05 GMT -6
18z euro looks like a small improvement over the 12z run Just going off surface charts it seems slightly deeper with the digging energy  |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 18:28:17 GMT -6
Definitely looks better
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 19:00:45 GMT -6
I just want a heavy dusting...is that too much to ask?
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 4, 2022 19:15:28 GMT -6
I just want a heavy dusting...is that too much to ask? Around these parts it seems to be …… |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2022 19:19:19 GMT -6
All models at this point have not done well. They went from gangbusters, to a light event to a moderate event to a full blown warning level on the NAM just this morning. It’s obviously they are struggling with energy on multiple levels with the dry air likely having a big influence and transfer of the wave as it sinks south and ejects the low east. Not to mention just a couple days ago a swath of light snow was modeled across much of the state and now we are sitting here trying to find a way to get hit by an uncertain fgen band currently favoring along or more likely south of the Missouri River. It’s been a mess the last 48hrs in my opinion. Which is why we have meteorologists... to interpret the models. That's why I said from the start to be leary of wideapread bigger snow totals...dry air... dry air... dry air...and speed! To get a big output from a clipper you need it to dig more and slow down and wind up.. OR... you pray to get stuck under a super narrow, quasi stationary mesoscale band. Rare is the clipper system that a model forecast to produce a lot of snow days in advance. I'm mostly preaching to the choir since most of you know this from pqst experience. Also rare is the storm that pulls moisture in over STL. If doesn't have it by mid-Missouri... it is going to have to wait until it clears the Ozarks and gets to the Ohio River. Models struggle with this all the time it seems... trying to start up precip too far to the west. |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2022 19:20:00 GMT -6
I'd be happy with the white ground... around 1" or so...
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mccarthb
Junior Forecaster
O'Fallon, MO - Outer Road near border of Dardenne Prarie
Posts: 443 
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Post by mccarthb on Jan 4, 2022 19:37:35 GMT -6
I just want a heavy dusting...is that too much to ask? Come on man, we don’t accept dustings in this forum! Anything less than an inch, I’m packing up and moving to Colorado. I’m snow deprived, I’m irritable and I’m on very thin ice (no pun) with the wife. It’s either a DAM donut or a parting of the Red Sea with these systems. A dusting and I’ll be in the doghouse for sure lol |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 19:38:18 GMT -6
0z HRRR has shifted south some and leaves most of the metro out of the snow, it’s trended south each run today
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 4, 2022 19:45:35 GMT -6
With the timing and temps in the teens, this could cause some issues Thursday morning during rush hour if nothing else.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 19:49:21 GMT -6
Yes starting to appear you will have to go 50 miles south of the metro to get anything meaningful. I think ita almost a no go for the northern 2/3 of the area now
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 19:49:47 GMT -6
Yes even 1/2”- 1” of powder on the roads will turn them slick pretty quickly especially if it’s around rush hour
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Post by Snowman99 on Jan 4, 2022 20:10:23 GMT -6
LOL, if the NAM holds course for the next 30 hours, and all the other models look just like it, then what the models show actually happens, I might get a few inches.
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