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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 20:10:31 GMT -6
One thing to note however and someone please tell me if this is true, dont clippers usually end up a bit north of where they are initially forecast. I am not wishcasting just asking if while we see a southern shift now isnt that actually a good thing for this stage of the game.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 20:14:06 GMT -6
NAM has nothing for the immediate metro area, everything is south and west of the county. Southerns will be happy. I wouldn’t bank on a northern shift . That’s going to be brutal watching it snow 15-20 minutes away
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 20:15:14 GMT -6
If it misses the metro it is good for rush hour concerns at least
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 20:17:00 GMT -6
I still dont yhink the system is sampled yet however. Lots of moving parts to watch it play out, however the southerners deserve it, we always get it in the i70 corridor it seems
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 4, 2022 20:21:22 GMT -6
One thing to note however and someone please tell me if this is true, dont clippers usually end up a bit north of where they are initially forecast. I am not wishcasting just asking if while we see a southern shift now isnt that actually a good thing for this stage of the game. It does seem like a common occurrence that these meso bands from frontogenesis forcing end up further north than modeled. Just something I’ve noticed over the years. |
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 20:22:45 GMT -6
NAM FV3 is a miss for the metro area as well everything is 25-50 miles south of the metro area. Hopefully snow gets his 1-3” snow .
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 20:23:22 GMT -6
Thank you just wanted to make sure it wasnt me, in the end its going to go where its gonna go and we cant be mad at the weather, just trends that im making sure I have noticed with these fgen bands
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 20:38:44 GMT -6
The models are wetter tho. It's definitely no guarantee that the immediate metro gets nothing. Right now i70 looks to be divider. At and North of 70 is probably out of the game. That looks pretty good  |
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 4, 2022 20:58:35 GMT -6
The Nam is even too far south for us southerners on this side of the river ….. great to see south of us getting snow for the 2nd time this week…….
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 4, 2022 21:02:00 GMT -6
The vort max track from KC to PAH definitely favors the S counties.
Enjoy.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:05:00 GMT -6
Boy KC to Paducah you would think would be perfect for metro stlouis
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 21:41:28 GMT -6
This is a nightmare.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:44:30 GMT -6
Which part is the nightmare the fact ot doesnt snow in st.louis, or the models dont know what they are doing lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:49:45 GMT -6
Gfs is really trying to get that fgen band going near 70 this run.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 21:50:34 GMT -6
The fact that it's The end of the first week in January and we have gotten nothing.
Our least snowiest winters we got nothing.
So we can easily go all winter with no snow
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:51:54 GMT -6
Well i guess we can always go for that record friv. I agree though makes you want to move to iowa or nebraska.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 21:53:09 GMT -6
Gfs is really trying to get that fgen band going near 70 this run. The gfs has no precip within 50 miles of i70 |
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 4, 2022 21:54:34 GMT -6
The new model data is starting to trickle in and yes, the QPF output has trickled south a little bit... but a few things continue to keep me holding the ship steady...for now. 1) The actual impulse STILL has not been well sampled. 2) The strength/amplitude/sharpness of the shortwave is still in flux. 3) I'm not pulling light snow from the forecast when A) it's already there and B) we have a set-up that may favor a mesoscale band. I would rather keep a steady-state forecast with the idea of light snow in the forecast until I'm certain that mesoscale band is not going to materialize and/or it's not going to impact the metro area. I would much rather be wrong one time... and not twice! If I pull the snow and then the band materializes and I have to put the light snow back in... that is much worse. So, steady as she goes...   |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 21:56:35 GMT -6
The record is 1.5" then 3" for second lowest
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 21:57:53 GMT -6
The new model data is starting to trickle in and yes, the QPF output has trickled south a little bit... but a few things continue to keep me holding the ship steady...for now. 1) The actual impulse STILL has not been well sampled. 2) The strength/amplitude/sharpness of the shortwave is still in flux. 3) I'm not pulling light snow from the forecast when A) it's already there and B) we have a set-up that may favor a mesoscale band. I would rather keep a steady-state forecast with the idea of light snow in the forecast until I'm certain that mesoscale band is not going to materialize and/or it's not going to impact the metro area. I would much rather be wrong one time... and not twice! If I pull the snow and then the band materializes and I have to put the light snow back in... that is much worse. So, steady as she goes... You truly are the definition of PROFESSIONAL. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 21:59:00 GMT -6
Agree chris, and that meso band will likely continue to shift until it starts to actually develope
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Post by landscaper on Jan 4, 2022 22:00:47 GMT -6
Chris, I like your forecast, I hope your right !
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 22:10:53 GMT -6
Long range rap is drier but closer the the 70 corridor seems slightly north of the 18z
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Post by showtime - Marissa on Jan 4, 2022 22:29:43 GMT -6
The Rap is definitely better
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Post by amstilost on Jan 4, 2022 22:41:50 GMT -6
Looks like .05" IMBY, I hope the LSR's are astronomically high with this system. Sheesh.
Edit: This was for GFS thru 48hr. I didn't hit send at the time.
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Post by amstilost on Jan 4, 2022 22:45:56 GMT -6
The Ukie Total QPF thru 48hr would be a "T" shirt picture.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 4, 2022 23:08:19 GMT -6
Rap looks drier really. Nightmare   |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 23:20:13 GMT -6
Rap still 1 to 3 so all good
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 4, 2022 23:22:02 GMT -6
04z rap looks like its a bit further north as well. But at this point lets just let the night roll on.
Good night yall
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Post by amstilost on Jan 5, 2022 0:19:06 GMT -6
The CMCE ensemble looks good IMBY QPF .17" by 6pm Thursday evening/night.
GEFS is .04" IMBY, phooey.
Operational Euro is .06" IMBY
This beats tracking record warmth.
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