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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2022 0:37:44 GMT -6
03z SREF probabilities are just rolling in and are notably better looking. 21z run had a 40-50% chance of atleast 0.10” liquid in the metro 03z run has bumped that up to a 70-80% chance Might mean nothing but found it notable  |
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2022 1:18:51 GMT -6
03z SREF mean QPF did indeed jump quite a bit
STL is at 0.15 and Belleville is at 0.18
There are two members above half an inch at Belleville lol
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 5, 2022 2:10:32 GMT -6
6z nam is better as well. Slight pull N and we may be in business.
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2022 2:15:31 GMT -6
06z NAM is a noteable improvement.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 5, 2022 3:13:33 GMT -6
06Z rgem is also much better.
Has 2-3" along and SE of 44/64.
1" along 70 and North. 1-2" South of 70.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 5, 2022 3:14:12 GMT -6
03z SREF mean QPF did indeed jump quite a bit STL is at 0.15 and Belleville is at 0.18 There are two members above half an inch at Belleville lol That's the GOM connection getting going there |
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 5, 2022 3:21:18 GMT -6
Both the nam and rgem moved the track of the h5 vort max about 30 miles further NE.
We need a little bit more Northward adjustment and this could end up making 2/3rds of us happy
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 5, 2022 5:26:59 GMT -6
Can definitely tell the cold front come through and the wind shift......temp has gone from 35°@3:30am down to 26°@5:30am.
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Post by landscaper on Jan 5, 2022 5:45:47 GMT -6
09z extended RAP took a nice jump north as well, has a great band 1-3” just south of I70 . Southern metro and points south really look good. Awesome trends , hopefully they hold and one more 15-20 mile push north would be nice to get the whole metro area good
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 5:48:00 GMT -6
As it stands now i will take my 1.5 in st.peters and call it a win lol
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 7:24:21 GMT -6
Hrrr trys to get the fgen band going through the 70 corridor befor developing a bigger batch south, but it definately shows the fight of dry air. Steady as she goes for now, and we will just have to seen what actually makes it to the ground
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 7:28:01 GMT -6
Also i notoce simulated radar is a bit north of where the heavier snows are. Thats why the 70 corridor will depend so muchbon when and if it can saturate otherwise its all virga snow
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Post by cardsnweather on Jan 5, 2022 7:43:57 GMT -6
It’s going to be tough to get anything measurable N of 70. DAM looks like it will not give in there.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 7:47:41 GMT -6
I like 1 to 1.5 imby to the city, more south, nothing north of the st.charles lincoln county border
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Post by addicted2wx - Villa Ridge, Mo on Jan 5, 2022 8:10:03 GMT -6
Looking like it’s gunna be pretty tough to anything significant up along 70 at this point. Most hi-res models including the latest moisture starved 12z NAM keep the fgen along or south of the Missouri River. It does continue the second band in SEMO but far less robust.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 8:13:14 GMT -6
Agreed, i just dont want to change my thinking, as all honesty if we get 1 inch or nothing it does not matter too much since this is such a minor event for everybody at best
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Post by Chris Higgins on Jan 5, 2022 8:15:33 GMT -6
The thing that is so frustrating is that forecasting a system like this takes a ton of mental power... there is a setious drain and strain... and it's all for a tiny little bit of snow. At times, it hardly feels worth the effort.
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Post by WEAXWATCHER on Jan 5, 2022 8:23:08 GMT -6
The thing that is so frustrating is that forecasting a system like this takes a ton of mental power... there is a setious drain and strain... and it's all for a tiny little bit of snow. At times, it hardly feels worth the effort. We appreciate you and others like you Chris. THANK YOU! |
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2022 8:28:56 GMT -6
The thing that is so frustrating is that forecasting a system like this takes a ton of mental power... there is a setious drain and strain... and it's all for a tiny little bit of snow. At times, it hardly feels worth the effort. Yeah, I'm done with it... |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 8:32:58 GMT -6
Im just about done caring bout winter. Lets see if we cash in in February otherwise lets work on at least breaking a record of least amount of snow lol. Almost feel our best winters in st.Louis are neautral years not la nina as they seem to get us dry cold air when it does get cold, and el nino usually is warm and wet, neutral years seem to give us a good combo overall
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Post by Tilawn on Jan 5, 2022 8:37:40 GMT -6
The thing that is so frustrating is that forecasting a system like this takes a ton of mental power... there is a setious drain and strain... and it's all for a tiny little bit of snow. At times, it hardly feels worth the effort. Heard that......frustrating for the private contractor sector as well as we put all the time getting equipment prepped, placed etc etc all for so little or maybe even nothing happening at all. Hours and money wasted sometimes. |
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 8:47:51 GMT -6
Real question is how to the things out west look, do they seem to be developing where modeled out in the rockies, in addition is the great lakes low where it was modeled or isnit miving a bit north and faster or south and slower than modeled. To me i felt like the cold front came through maybe an hour faster and with a vengence this morning.
But ill leave it the the big guys to look into that. Just curious if things are where we thought as small differences aee huge here locally
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Post by ndolan387 on Jan 5, 2022 9:17:17 GMT -6
I think most areas S and along I-70/I-64 in the STL metro would take the 12z HRRR (though given at most 0.5" to 1"). Areas like Farmington and to the S look to get upwards of 2". Almost time to go to current obs and radar.
Our fellow STGOutdoors is in a much better spot than the immediate STL metro!
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Post by Snowstorm920 on Jan 5, 2022 9:18:39 GMT -6
09z SREF plumes are still pretty spread out with a fair number of big runs. Mean at STL is 0.16” of QPF I’m sure they will come crashing down to reality soon  |
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Post by STGOutdoors on Jan 5, 2022 9:26:11 GMT -6
I still think someone could be surprised by that fgen band. The models are trying to come back around to it. Then it is a question of how quickly and where the second southern mode develops. There will be some nowcasting to be sure.
Also, I guess I should change my username being that I've been in Perryville now for 5 years.
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Post by Frivolousz21 on Jan 5, 2022 9:27:23 GMT -6
The vorticity is very nice.
Right now I would put a line from Chesterfield to Belleville as the Northern edge of legit chance for a few hours of moderate snow.
This line if it develops should drop 1-2" as it slowly sags South.
Although it will probably either not materialize or set up South of where I just said.
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Post by bellevillewxguy on Jan 5, 2022 9:32:57 GMT -6
Looks like just enough motivation to take the holiday decorations down... Perhaps.
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Post by BRTNWXMAN on Jan 5, 2022 9:35:44 GMT -6
Really just need to hope for the subtle NE adjustment that these clippers usually take at the last minute, but I'm not holding my breath. I'd honestly rather not get an inch of snow because the pond ice is looking great for skating on by this weekend or early next week hopefully and a little snow on top will rot it when it rains Saturday.
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Post by yypc on Jan 5, 2022 9:37:05 GMT -6
0-1” per the NWS just go with that and call it a day. This turd of a “storm” isnt worth getting worked up over. Hope February is better like last year or this will be a seriously disappointing winter.
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Post by ajd446 on Jan 5, 2022 9:39:59 GMT -6
Im banking on a 30 mile northern shift that 9 out of 10 clippers do. But this will be the one that doesn lol
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